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Originally Posted by Eric
Last group of hands:
Hand 79 UTG: X / J J / 7 T 3
This is tricky because if things don't get flushy and we have to switch gears into 2-pair mode on bottom then we can't hit fl.
Do you consider X / 3 7 / J J T or other variations with the jacks on bottom here?
I think your line is okay for the reason you mention, but the combined chance of either completing the flush or drawing a miracle pair of 3s, 7s, or Js is a bit over 80%, so EJs aggressive line certainly has its merits. Your line is safer, but his line trades a somewhat higher fouling percentage for more big-hand potential.
Originally Posted by Eric
Hand 82 Dealer: After seeing K / 4 T / 2 5 , you set
3 / 8 7 / 5 9
It looks like the idea is a straight in the middle and a flush on the bottom. As such, the 3 ruins both so it goes on top. I don't think I've ever set a 3 on top. You did hit both the straight and the flush - maybe I'm missing opportunities?
EJ makes some strange-looking plays sometimes, but they seem to work out fairly often. The idea here is that even needing 3 spades, with 11 live spades in the 42 unseen cards, you'll get there about 2 times out of 3 (this is one of the things that surprised me when MMM gave me an Excel tool to calcuate odds for some simple POFC problems), but even when you don't, you might make 9s-up or better in back and 8s-up or 7s-up in the mid. Still, like you, I hate that 3 on top, which takes so much of the flexibility out of your FL options. I think I'd set xxx / 8 7 3 / 5 9, but not love it.
Originally Posted by Eric
Hand 86: After seeing K / 2 2 / 9 T , you set
Q / T / 7 6 8
If you don't see the dealer's ten and nine then do you consider something like Q / 7 6 / T 8 ?
This is not a pleasant spot. Opp has a T, a 9, and 2 hearts, taking a lot of the life out of various draws. I wouldn't feel good about it, but I'd set Q / 7 8 / T 6, with the basic goal of QQ/8s-up or 7s-up/Ts-up or better, but with about a 50% shot of flushing up in back.
Originally Posted by Eric
Hand 87 UTG: X / A 6 A / 3 9
I'm with you here but I'm wondering if Phi would set the aces in front instead of mid?
Wonder no more: given the texture of the hand, I like EJ's line here, with an eye to catching KK or QQ on top and anything that beats AA in back.
Originally Posted by Eric
Hand 88 Dealer: After seeing Q / 3 A / T 4 ,
you go with K / 5 9 / 8 6
This can get nasty if we get another nine and the hearts don't come. Do you consider K / 5 6 / 8 9 in these spots?
See the note on Hand 82 above about the 68% flush opportunity in back, so I certainly see merit in EJ's plan, but I'd probably set K / 5 6 / 8 9 to avoid the difficulties that can arise on many of the hands when the flush doesn't get there. Notice that in best-case scenarios down this line, your straights don't interfere with each other or with the KK draw for the top if you catch KK/23456/789TJ or KK/34567/89TJQ.
Originally Posted by Eric
Hand 90: After seeing Q / 3 K / T 6 ,
you go X / 5 J 5 / 8 7
Would you consider switching top and mid here? Something like X / 8 7 / 5 J 5 ?
This is yet another 2-flush with 11 live cards in the 42 left in the deck spot, and EJ tends to play a lot of them this way. Here the 87 is connected, so it's easy to switch to the straight-draw if the early draws seem to lead down that path. I get your discomfort with that J in the mid, but if either the straight or flush materializes, or you miraculously draw a pair that makes trips in back, then that J is just a fully live 2-pair out.
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