[10NL] AJ in MP, I need to move up where they respect my raises !

[Brownie]

Another situation that I seem to run a bit too often for my liking that causes me issues.

I raise pre and get half the table wanting to see a flop, I then end up with a piece of the flop just big enough to make me want to win the whole enchilada.

(Sample size on villains very low but included for completeness)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

UTG ($10.22)
UTG+1 ($10)
Hero (MP1) ($10) - 12 hands at table not played a hand
MP2 ($6.54) - less than10 hands
CO ($3.32) - less than10 hands
Button ($11.35) 41/18 over 17 hands
SB ($13.98)
BB ($10.22) - 27/7 over 15 hands
UTG ($10)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, A
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, MP2 calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, Button calls $0.30, 1 fold , BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.55) A, 10, 7 (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, MP2 calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1 , BB calls $1

Turn: ($5.55) 5 (4 players)

Hero thinks wtf do I do now


In part two I will attempt some ranges and try to break this down to find my best line.

[griffey24]

If you're going to get so many calls 3x, then I don't mind going 4x or even 5x. I'm raising as big as possible that will still get calls, but will narrow the field a bit (HU would be nice, especially vs a bad player).

I would bet $3ish on the turn. As good as a card as you're ever going to get.

Also is the flop pot size right? You made it $0.30 pre, and it went 5way didn't it?....

[Brownie]

Hand converter messed up - manually adjusted the numbers to suit the HH thanks for the spot.

Lets start off with some ranges:
We cannot really go by the HUD stats as sample sizes are practically non existent, but lets have a go.

The more that come along for the ride then the players behind are getting greater odds until we reach the BB who will lob another $0.20 with practically any two cards

Hero raising range from MP1 = 55+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo
MP2 calling range = 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo, JTo, T8o+,
CO calling range = 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o
BTN calling range = 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K7o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o
BB calling range = 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K7o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 96o+, 85o+, 74o+, 64o+, 53o+, 43o

Some equity calcs pre:
Hero 26%
MP2 26%
CO 17%
BTN 14%
BB 15%

No one is a fan of leading into 4 players, however I had the initiative and I may also have the best hand at this point, I didn't think check calling was that great an option and folding seemed so weak, therefore I elected to continuation bet with my top pair farty kicker and back door nut flush draw. If I get a straggler hanging on for a draw then I intended to see what the turn brings before deciding if another shell would get rid. A raise would tell me I am beat.

I think that was my first mistake, maybe check calling was the best option - see below

I agree the turn card is probably the best one I could have wanted, it didn't complete any draws, but now I need to think about trimming some of the ranges of the players.

Hero range: actually this exercise has just illustrated something very important, there is no way I am betting into this many villains without a piece of this board. My range is decimated to ATs+ AJ+ TT 77 QdJd KdQd KdJd
At higher stakes against better thinking players this could certainly be an issue.

Villain calling range I estimate to be roughly TT+,77,A2s+,JTs,T9s,87s,76s,Kxd,,Qxd,Jxd, 8xd,6xd,5xd,4d3d,ATo+,KJo+,QJo,JTo,T8o+
allowing for some random donkishness due to odds offered.

Equity my range vs villains (x3)
Hero 34%
MP2 22%
BTN 22%
BB 22%

Equity my actual cards vs villains range (x3)
Hero 29%
MP2 23%
BTN 23%
BB 23%

Before I make a decision on betting the turn, what cards do I not want to see ?
Any Diamond completes flush draws
any 3, 4, 6, 9, J complete straight draws
5,7, T give someone trips/full house
K Q unlikely gutshot draws & unlikely 2 pair eg villain Kd5d

So I really want to be seeing an non diamond 2, Ace, K or Q to have any confidence on the river if I bet the turn and don't take it down.

Therefore I think I should check/fold the turn if more than 1 villain are putting money into the pot, check/call if only 1 villain, check/fold the river unless a non diamond 2, Ace, K, Q come on the river where I should bet/fold

Thoughts ?.............

[OngBonga]

Yeah I'd be thinking that pre flop raises are gonna need to increase. Next time I open it's gonna be x4, and if we're still getting half the table calling, x5.

I'd bet this flop a little more, maybe $1.20, seeing as there's so many people who can be drawing. After getting called (I'll fold if raised), I assume we were good on flop, and this turn is probably a blank, it only hits A5 realistically. Bet again, somewhere around 60% of pot. Fold if raised. River, well assuming we got called, we don't want to see a diamond, and ideally we don't want to see a face card either because there's likely gonna be one muppet with a gutshot. I'd c/f diamond rivers, c/c Q K, and ideally b/f blanks jacks and aces but I might b/c jacks and aces.

[STILL_mkd]

I really don't like this cards when I am playing poker, because I lost lot of my money with AJ. However, it is not necessarily in this case.

I also think that you have to bet the turn. For my opinion your bet will have to be about 1/2 pot. If somebody make raise, then go fold.
About the river I agree with Ong ("I'd c/f diamond rivers, c/c Q K, and ideally b/f blanks jacks and aces but I might b/c jacks and aces."), depending on that how much players will be on the river.

[Razvan729]

b/f turn for sure.
River depends on card and how many players are left in the pot. C/decide i'd choose w/ just TP and even A/J rivers are tricky multiway.

[sam1FTR]

This is a really tough spot just because we're out of position against two of the players.

But i agree with above. I'd bet between $3-$3.50 on the turn. Hopefully the players behind you fold. Depending on how many people call, and what the river is...

ALso, if one of the players behind you raises you, I think you have to fold. AJ is losing to AK, AQ, and AT here.

Also, out of all of the callers on the flop, at least one of them has to be on a flush draw, and will probably fold to your turn bet.