[10NL] QQ vs unknown, weird line...what's his range?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is virtually unknown, 20/13 over 15 hands.

Not sure if this is worth mentioning. Villain had just been in a pot with a whale, he raised/4bet/called a 5bet shove, his button vs fish BB w/ QQ against 55 and ended up splitting the pot. This hand is IMMEDIATELY after that one.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $10.00
SB: $19.36
BB: $12.61
Hero (UTG): $10.15
MP: $15.32
CO: $11.11

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q Q

Hero raises to $0.35, fold, CO raises to $0.90, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.55

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players) K 9 8
Hero checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.95, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($4.95, 2 players) K
Hero checks, CO bets $8.71 and is all-in, Hero ???

I don't understand what villain could have here? I don't see villain having a K, being an unknown we will assume the only Kx he 3bets is AK. If he does, why would he check a blank turn and then shove the river w/ trips?

Same reasoning if he had a set. I just don't see him checking the turn and then jamming river when he fills up...but what else could he have?

The only hand I can think of is missed straight draws but it seems unlikely he 3bets JT/76 pre.

Thoughts?

[BorisTheSpider]

Yeah, this is certainly a super wierd line.

People act wierd on tilt. After what you've said about the other hand, then this wierd line, I probably snap this off then feel really dumb when he shows down AK. I don't see what he has for value that doesn't just bet normal on the river, the overbet shove looks really tilty. AA is not out of the question - the overbet can be a rage shove when he feels like he's just been cracked, but AA bets the turn surely.

It's wierd. Nothing makes sense, so I station it.

[OngBonga]

Yeah I'm calling this off under the circumstances. I'd be tempted to 4bet him pre too because he's likely to be tilting somewhat and we could get him in crushed.

[griffey24]

I have no clue what he has now, but I think this needs to be a value bet on the river. I bet $3.50ish and fold if he jams.

[chincho]

. More often than absolutely wrong, they arise ineffectual ring out-an absolutely undeniable this boom or bust mentality

[Carroters]

Folding flop for sure. Don't think this call is ever really +EV.

[Lukie]

The hand before is definitely worth mentioning but it's not like 4b/call with QQ in a button game really tells you much (or stats after 15 hands for that matter.) I wouldn't automatically assume he is tilting in a situation like this either. At most, you might allow for some small percentage chance that he is doing something stupid.

Totally agree with carroters about folding the flop. This is just a really bad spot to be in when you still have to play 2 streets OOP.

As played I would fold river expecting to see AK most of the time.

[Cobra_1878]

Folding flop for sure. Don't think this call is ever really +EV.

Do you always fold a PP when an over hits on the flop?

[griffey24]

Folding the flop seems very tight to me.

Lots of players won't even necessarily 3b AK vs UTG from CO. So while AK does get there when it does 3b, KK will always 3b and the K on the flop cuts down those combos in half.

[OngBonga]

I don't *hate* folding flop and probably would sometimes, but not as standard. I'd be more likely to call flop, fold turn, call river as standard.

[Lukie]

If the flop was an all-in bet, you would likely have the necessary 30% equity to call.

But it's a bad reverse implied odds situation. A halfway decent/aggressive villain is going to value bet you to death with his AA/KK/AK and the occasional semi-bluff that hit (e.g. 89o) and he's going to push you off the hand at least some of the time when he has air. What's the plan when he fires a blank turn?

[griffey24]

I'd probably fold to a turn barrel. But I also show up with AK often here from UTG, so I'm ok folding QQ and calling down AK.

[Savy]

If the flop was an all-in bet, you would likely have the necessary 30% equity to call.

But it's a bad reverse implied odds situation. A halfway decent/aggressive villain is going to value bet you to death with his AA/KK/AK and the occasional semi-bluff that hit (e.g. 89o) and he's going to push you off the hand at least some of the time when he has air. What's the plan when he fires a blank turn?

Folding QQ on the flop is probably pretty bad. Depends on what Cobras range is though in all fairness.

Also calling the flop and folding a later street is fine, but I'd imagine that if we are folding this on the flop the only thing in our range that we are calling with is some combos of AK (Some get 4bet I'd imagine) which makes us very exploitable on the flop which is where people are going to bet with their air. Also it's fine to narrow our range down on future streets, to say ohh we have to fold this because we can face pressure later on is awful logic. It's also 10nl where most villains aren't going to play later streets well at all and they probably cbet the flop too much, so we do get to showdown a lot with the best hand in this situation.

I like calling flop and folding river. Betting river is a bit thin imo, what do we expect to call us? @Griffey? Also I'm fine folding to a turn bet.

If Cobra is flatting the Odd AA/KK in this situation and isn't 4betting AKo folding QQ might be ok on the flop.

[griffey24]

ImSavy - I'm assuming if villain 3b us pre vs UTG, and bet this flop and now check the turn he must be 3betting us wider than we think. No hands he could have make sense here (AA/KK/AK) probably all betting the turn again. So if he's checking the turn he also has other hands in his range, AQ? Random nonsense like A9s, A8s? Only the one combo of QQ really makes sense as a value hand pre, and maybe some JJ?

If he is capable of checking back AK on turn then I think riv betting is obv much closer.

I think we're ahead on the river, so I'll bet like half pot and let him figure it out where his 9x or other random hand stands. I just don't expect many ppl to bluff this river when checked to, so I don't think it's a good spot to bluff catch. Bet river or c/f imo.

[Carroters]

Meh, this is 10NL and someone is 3 betting you CO vs UTG. I doubt most villains even have a bluffing range in this spot (feel free to correct me though if you play 10NL and see this a lot) So if villains range is likely really tight I don't see why we want to call a c bet on Kxx, if he just has QQ+ AK we're completely crushed, if it's wider than this then I doubt there are usually too many bluff combos and so the times we get to SD and win are likely minimal especially if he ever barrels us on the turn which is something that's fairly likely for a guy who's 3 bet bluffing CO vs UTG at these stakes IMO.

So investing this 15bbs OOP to always fold the next street implies we think we get to SD and win or win the pot otherwise 30% of the time (or perhaps make up some difference in this in thin value OTR/playing better than villain. If his range is as tight as I'm assuming here on average then I doubt we achieve this. Anyways, QQ is not so far up in our range so folding it in a spot I don't want to defend too much in as a general strategy doesn't seem bad with these assumptions. We can have AK and we probably fold a lot to the 3 bet leaving our flop range really narrow anyways so those AK combos ensure we're continuing on this texture plenty.

That's my reasoning behind folding flop anyways. In practice I feel like I get to SD in this kind of spot very rarely by calling flop folding turn and that's 100NL where people do commonly have wider 3 bet bluffing ranges here.

[SinkieCon]

I would be tempted to call here, most likely because he has 1010 or JJ in these spots, folding would seem to tight on the flop, on the turn I'd like to bet 3/4 pot or a small bet, to see where I stand here. but it is a very weird line indeed. what did he have in the end?

[griffey24]

I would be tempted to call here, most likely because he has 1010 or JJ in these spots, folding would seem to tight on the flop, on the turn I'd like to bet 3/4 pot or a small bet, to see where I stand here. but it is a very weird line indeed. what did he have in the end?

I very much doubt he has TT/JJ here. 3b pre vs EP discounts that heavily, as does the flop bet and river action.

[SinkieCon]

I very much doubt he has TT/JJ here. 3b pre vs EP discounts that heavily, as does the flop bet and river action.

True enough, he dose bet strong on the flop there too.

[OngBonga]

I do agree with carrots' analysis, only I expect this guy to have a wider range than he might normally due to him showing down QQ last hand and splitting the pot with 55, meaning he's possibly slightly tilted, plus he'll maybe feel more confident he's getting respect thanks to his QQ showdown.

At 10nl, I see people bluff with all sorts of shit. I think at 100nl I would imagine people are bluffing sensibly, that is when they feel villain's range is weighted heavily towards thin value hands that fold to aggression, or bluffs etc.

At 10nl, I expect a 3bet bluff pre to cbet flop and then check turn if called, thinking he's getting value towned by top pair. When turn goes c/c and we check river, now he feels confident we don't have a king.

I do see nutty hands make large overbets like this on the river at 10nl, but I also see a lot of bluffy spew too. Throw in the dynamic of the last hand, and this is why I'm not folding this spot. I don't think villain is as tight as he would be if he'd been quiet for five or six hands.