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the rule of 4 and 2 for ofc

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  1. #1
    Eric's Avatar
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    Default the rule of 4 and 2 for ofc

    There is no rule of 4 and 2 for ofc - we have way more dead cards in this game than in holdem. Still, there are shortcuts we can use to get rough estimates for the percentages of hitting our draws.

    Shortcuts (courtesy of MMM):

    1. Approximate hitting percentage after 6th street to 9th street:

    8*(outs) - 4.5*(street) + 45

    2. Approximate hitting percentage after 10th street to 12th street:

    4.5*(outs) - 13*(street) + 150

    Notes:

    5th street is a special case so we skip it with the shortcuts.
    Our chances tend to be about 2% higher if we're the dealer than if we're out of position.
    #1 works reasonably well with 9 outs or less.
    #2 works reasonably well with 10 outs or less.

    Examples:

    #1
    After setting 6th street heads up out of position, we have 7, 8, 9, T rainbow on the bottom. All 4 sixes and 4 jacks are live so we have 8 outs. Using shortcut #1, our approximate percentage is:
    = 8*(outs) - 4.5*(street) + 45
    = 8*8 - 4.5*6 + 45
    = 64 - 27 + 45
    = 82%
    Our actual percentage is 81% so our approximation is very close.

    #2
    After setting 10th street heads up with the dealer button, we have 7, 8, 9, T rainbow on the bottom. All 4 sixes and 4 jacks are live so we have 8 outs. Using shortcut #2, our approximate percentage is:
    = 4.5*(outs) - 13*(street) + 150
    = 4.5*8 - 13*10 + 150
    = 36 - 130 + 150
    = 56%
    Our actual percentage is 1 - (24,3)/(32,3) or 59.2% so our approximation is within 5 percentage points.

    Here are the actual percentages from MMM:


    Here are more details: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...hs-196358.html
    Last edited by Eric; 11-08-2013 at 09:18 PM.
  2. #2
    Very nice chart, thanks!

    I have tried to make some sort of a similar chart as well, for % chance that you will hit a flush if you start out with 3 of the same suit out of the first 5, and he % chance after each street. It is very rough & I'm still working on it a bit
  3. #3
    percentage is 81% so our approximation is very close ?
    omair
  4. #4
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by deomair View Post
    percentage is 81% so our approximation is very close ?
    You're going to have to be more specific.

    What are you approximating?

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