[10NL] AJo...river decision

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 33/22/13 over 21 hands.

SB is 18/14/4 over 181 hands.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $11.42
UTG: $10.15
MP: $13.43
Hero (CO): $20.78
BTN: $5.15
SB: $15.06

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J A

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90, 3 players) 4 2 2
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.90, 3 players) A
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, fold, BB raises to $1.30, Hero calls $0.70

River: ($3.50, 2 players) 3
BB bets $2.30, Hero ???

OK, I have attempted to put villain on a range and this is what I come up with

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

142 games 0.000 secs 28,400 games/sec

Board: 4c 2d 2c As 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.746% 55.63% 02.11% 79 3.00 { AdJc }
Hand 1: 42.254% 40.14% 02.11% 57 3.00 { 77+, 44, 22, A2s+, 53s, A2o+, 53o }


If my range is correct, then obviously I have to call, however I suspect I'm way off.

If villain had an overpair on the flop, I don't think he would c/r on the turn unless he thinks I am just firing at a good turn card to bluff at?

I think villain might c/r with a worse Ax for value so I have included all Ax hands considering he just overcalled in BB pre and I don't know whether he 3bets his big hands all of the time.

River bet looks like a value bet, question is, will villain be value betting a worse Ax on this board? I don't think villain has many 5x hands in his range that he c/r the turn with, 53/A5 are only hands I can think of that make any sense, although A5 is a push.

Thoughts?

[Savy]

Villains don't c/r worse Ax for value. Ax would be like the most obvious hand to call with there. Villains don't c/r 77+ there because that's just stupid, if they are c/r something like 99 there make a note and know that he is bluffing hands with almost no equity when behind and donking the river, so we can be happier calling both.

So you seem to have given him a c/r range on the turn that are his absolute nut hands to some average pairs, yet not given villain any flush draws which are the types of hands he is going to be quite happy to check on the flop and turn into bluffs on the turn if you bet.

[Cobra_1878]

Villains don't c/r worse Ax for value. Ax would be like the most obvious hand to call with there. Villains don't c/r 77+ there because that's just stupid, if they are c/r something like 99 there make a note and know that he is bluffing hands with almost no equity when behind and donking the river, so we can be happier calling both.

So you seem to have given him a c/r range on the turn that are his absolute nut hands to some average pairs, yet not given villain any flush draws which are the types of hands he is going to be quite happy to check on the flop and turn into bluffs on the turn if you bet.

FFS didn't even consider FD's. This is why I don't attempt putting villain's on a range (publicly) haha.

[Savy]

It's probably more important knowing what your range is in this spot and what you need to be calling than it is trying to put villain on a range that probably won't be anywhere near what he's actually doing.

[surviva316]

I probably cbet flop because our range in the CO is sooooo wide here that we're basically never going to be cbetting if we don't with this hand. I would make it small and barrel a lot of runouts (including this one ldfo).

As played, the only reason I'm considering folding is because turn is a power raise. Otherwise I wouldn't hesitate to call against an unknown villain who's shown aggression. If we're folding, we're folding on the turn, not when he continues for 2/3 PSB on an offsuit 3.

[Cobra_1878]

I probably cbet flop because our range in the CO is sooooo wide here that we're basically never going to be cbetting if we don't with this hand. I would make it small and barrel a lot of runouts (including this one ldfo).

As played, the only reason I'm considering folding is because turn is a power raise. Otherwise I wouldn't hesitate to call against an unknown villain who's shown aggression. If we're folding, we're folding on the turn, not when he continues for 2/3 PSB on an offsuit 3.

Can you elaborate a little more on that please?

[ST3]

I prefer cbetting when we're last to act here, I don't mind checking if we are in the middle but I'd prefer to use our positional advantage.

As played, villian's hand sample is pretty much irrelevant but with the line he's taken I would say he's a weaker player. The min c/r on the turn and bigger river can be two things to me, I just haven't decided what. It's either a draw raising the turn weak followed by a bigger bluff when he misses on the river; or a nuttish hand raising small to keep your range wide then bigger on the river to make up for the fact he's raised so small on the turn.

I'm leaning towards a call because I think he's a weaker player and this line could be some random bluff which TPGK is ahead of a good proportion of the time. I think you should add some buffer into your range you've given him aswell, it's pretty much nuttish hands when his range is way wider than that if he isn't a reg in your games.

Kind of a waffley reply but I'm tired & I personally would cbet here the majority of the time so it's not a spot I'm 100% familiar with.

[daven]

bet flop - sb is basically never going to check-raise here and is going to check-fold a lot cos of bb being in the pot, bb is also going to be careful. HU this is more of a check-behind spot.
When they check-call flop you are in position with initiative in a single raised pot to the turn and that ain't a bad spot to be in. When they check-fold that's just fine too

[daven]

important decision is the turn, if you're folding river as played then calling the turn seems to be an error. Would this be a difficult river spot if the river came a jack and that bet still came? anyway, call river as played. But cbet flop and think hard about the turn bet and call as played. Are you betting turn hoping that he calls worse (A9? 99?)? or are you trying to induce a bluff?

[surviva316]

A power raise is like 1-4bbs above minraise. Basically, button-mashing villains will just click the "+" a few times so that they're not minraising but also so that they're not betting too much.

Forgot to mention two things:

1) I would check the flop back HU because our hand has much more SD value in that instance. In that case, betting is a good way to get better to call and worse to fold.

2) I don't find that villain has a FD here a whole lot. Most players who plan to play draws aggressively tend to just bet out themselves. Most players who don't bet are looking to either c/c and see the turn as cheap as possible or are just c/f'ing. If villain has a bluff, I expect it to be much more of the "fuck you, you don't have anything bluff." This can often be with complete air or garbage pairs (especially 4x/33). I'm not coming to this deductively or basing it on game theory or anything; that's just what I tend to see here more than good draws.