100NL, AK oop facing flop raise

[pokerfan]

villain is 17.7/5/3.3 over 80 hands. Any commitment plan when facing his flop raise?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($100)
Hero ($128.65)
MP2 ($104.50)
CO ($88.50)
Button ($104.90)
SB ($126.50)
BB ($133.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) K, 8, 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $6.5, CO raises to $16.5, Hero ?

[Miffed22001]

Insta-fold.

[Deanglow]

Insta-fold.

What? No I don't think so.

I would make a committing a 3-bet and get it allin. It is a small sample of stats and his stack tells me he is a donk.

[pokerfan]

really?? are you so nitty that you fear he raised with set? i just meant that we are definitely not committed if we decide to flat call his bet.

Insta-fold.

[Miffed22001]

put him on a range.

is he raising the flop with QJdiamonds??

I dont think so.

[jimmy44]

Let's put villain on hands:
AdKx
AQdd
KQ
T9dd
97dd
KK
88
66

Can someone run pokerstove with these ranges as I don't have it here?

This might indeed be a fold as only 1 hand we are crushing, but we are being crushed by some ...

[spoonitnow]

Insta-fold.

What? No I don't think so.

I would make a committing a 3-bet and get it allin. It is a small sample of stats and his stack tells me he is a donk.

I agree 100%.

put him on a range.

is he raising the flop with QJdiamonds??

I dont think so.

Yes, he is.

[Miffed22001]

Insta-fold.

What? No I don't think so.

I would make a committing a 3-bet and get it allin. It is a small sample of stats and his stack tells me he is a donk.

I agree 100%.

put him on a range.

is he raising the flop with QJdiamonds??

I dont think so.

Yes, he is.

im gald you think so, i havent seen it yet

[STHollywood]

a set is possible here obviously and as for QJ of diamonds I think a raise with that hand is totally possible. I raise a lot of my draws on the flop. The issue here is with a set you are totally eating it but with any draws you are doing pretty well unless he has some wicked combo draw like 79d. I would say three-bet, a set or aces will shove here but a draw will most likely only call and then you can decide on the turn. Also a 17/5 probably calls a fair amount of suited connectors in position so I wouldn't put so little weight on that.

[AlexMorris]

I see two options which are equally good in the long run.

1. Raise to $35 with the intention of folding to a shove. If he flat calls and the turn is a non-diamond, you shove.

2. Raise to at least $50 and call a shove (maybe just shove yourself, it really doens't matter). If he flat calls, shove all turns.

[AlexMorris]

Oh, and to answer jimmy44's question:

23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 8d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.888% 38.72% 12.17% 9199 2892.00 { AhKd }
Hand 1: 49.112% 36.94% 12.17% 8777 2892.00 { KcKs, 88, 66, AKs, AdQd, KQs, Td9d, 9d7d, AKo, KQo }

[pokerfan]

Are you guys feeling comfortable NOW?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($100)
Hero ($128.65)
MP2 ($104.50)
CO ($88.50)
Button ($104.90)
SB ($126.50)
BB ($133.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) K, 8, 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $6.5, CO raises to $16.5, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($42.50) 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($42.50) 3 (3 players)
Hero ?

[jimmy44]

Oh, and to answer jimmy44's question:

23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 8d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.888% 38.72% 12.17% 9199 2892.00 { AhKd }
Hand 1: 49.112% 36.94% 12.17% 8777 2892.00 { KcKs, 88, 66, AKs, AdQd, KQs, Td9d, 9d7d, AKo, KQo }

Thanks!
Didn't thought is was 50/50.
Ops I forgot the hands AA & QQ-TT. So this should even more favorable. We need to 3bet to around $40 and call a shove ...

Are you guys feeling comfortable NOW?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($100)
Hero ($128.65)
MP2 ($104.50)
CO ($88.50)
Button ($104.90)
SB ($126.50)
BB ($133.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) K, 8, 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $6.5, CO raises to $16.5, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($42.50) 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($42.50) 3 (3 players)
Hero ?

The guy has AK (with the A of diamonds)
Bet 1/2 pot and fold to a push.

[Miffed22001]

c/c something small, otherwise fold.

i think 3betting is spew and calling is worse.
Your opponent isnt even raising a diamond draw 25% of the time here which weighs his had heavily toward splitting with tptk/and being fked versus sets and combo draws.

I think the opponents range is generous on the stove calculation