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i'll add here my thoughts/comments i posted on this hand a few hours ago in carroters' blog for the sake of forum stimulation and discussion all of that positive stuff:
i don't have a ton of live tourney experience, but i'm jamming here. closer to the bubble with potential for busting (which this situation has, as UTG has us covered) i may find a fold, but given there are still ~16 bustos which need to occur, and 20 minute levels probably doesn't translate to very many hands in a live tourney, i'm happy to get it in with what is likely damn close to a flip (with antes and 1bb stack AI juicing the pot a bit) to win a pot which could potentially see me through to the final table barring any complete spew or coolers. also, i think "40% at most" is a conservative estimate of our equity when called. i doubt this guy is capable of folding any of TT+,AK (against which we are 42%) 10bb deep, and it may go wider than that. and if he is ONLY calling with say JJ+ and 8 of 16 combos of AK, then we likely have like 30-40% fold equity because he is surely not open folding 88,99,TT or AQ UTG. then again, there are potentially influential factors which only having played the tournament myself could determine for this decision, ie if the players to my left were basically auto-fold nits who were folding their blinds 90% of the time each to minraises, maybe i'd pass on the JJ all-in, content to steal blinds to keep my stack afloat.
despite attempting to justify why i think it's a shove, i'm still not an MTT player, or even a decent cash-game player. so it may be prudent to disregard the content of this post.
edit: my estimate of what the average stack would be would at the time of this hand being played would also influence the decision. the higher the average stack in comparison to hero's - the more happy i am to stick it in and "gamble" with JJ. and the lower the average stack in comparison to hero's obviously has the inverse implication. though that's pretty intuitive.
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