Three Hands From Tomorrow

[Carroters]

1. This isn't a line I'd usually take. I think a lot of regs give this kind of line credit and I rep a good bit of Ax here as well as some kind of hand that went for a c/r on the turn. Like? Dislike? Villain is calling my 3 bets fairly wide but I don't remember him seeing me getting out of line postflop. I guess motivation for this line is that stuff like TT-QQ is not a huge part of his range since he's started flatting me a lot in and out of position.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 134.93 BB (VPIP: 28.32, PFR: 24.53, 3Bet Preflop: 12.61, Hands: 653)
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 21.95, PFR: 17.07, 3Bet Preflop: 7.59, Hands: 213)
Hero (BB): 115.78 BB
UTG: 107.69 BB (VPIP: 23.94, PFR: 20.88, 3Bet Preflop: 6.96, Hands: 602)
MP: 109.26 BB (VPIP: 26.42, PFR: 23.01, 3Bet Preflop: 13.97, Hands: 363)
CO: 139.75 BB (VPIP: 18.53, PFR: 8.19, 3Bet Preflop: 1.11, Hands: 240)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 8 BB, BTN calls 6 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) K 3 A
Hero bets 9.5 BB, BTN calls 9.5 BB

Turn: (35.5 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (35.5 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 23.5 BB

2. My game is too stationy in a lot of spots imo, I'm tempted to call here. No real relevant reads on villain. Looks like a fairly horrible bluff card so I think this is probably just an easy fold vs the avg population here, although he doesn't rep too much other than maybe suited broadway Tx.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 127.95 BB (VPIP: 23.94, PFR: 20.88, 3Bet Preflop: 6.96, Hands: 602)
BTN: 219.24 BB (VPIP: 18.53, PFR: 8.19, 3Bet Preflop: 1.11, Hands: 240)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.27, PFR: 20.87, 3Bet Preflop: 9.59, Hands: 214)
Hero (BB): 104.5 BB
UTG: 36.5 BB (VPIP: 15.57, PFR: 12.30, 3Bet Preflop: 7.55, Hands: 124)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 4

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, SB calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (16 BB, 2 players) 8 T 2
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (16 BB, 2 players) 4
SB bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (36 BB, 2 players) 2
SB bets 28.5 BB, Hero?


3. This is unconventional. Villain is the type to flat 3 bets a lot when he faces light 3 betting. I definitely have a high 3-bet stat on his HUD and have been 3 betting loads (as usual). I don't think he's bad enough to call 3 here without an ace and shouldnt expect me to bluff 3 streets on this board as it's obviously fairly suicidal. I decide a river bet might get looked up lighter than a turn bet here and it gives him a chance to put more money in the pot with hearts random bd club floats etc and maybe just spazz out sometimes on the river if he decides that the turn action means I cant have an ace but he can. My river raise size is an attempt to look really weird and f.o.s and possibly induce. I don't know if he even bets river with JJ TT stuff but if he does I think I prefer larger.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 98.21 BB (VPIP: 22.80, PFR: 13.99, 3Bet Preflop: 6.58, Hands: 197)
BB: 46 BB (VPIP: 27.14, PFR: 22.25, 3Bet Preflop: 11.56, Hands: 920)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 34.48, PFR: 29.31, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 60)
MP: 155.33 BB (VPIP: 23.94, PFR: 20.88, 3Bet Preflop: 6.96, Hands: 602)
Hero (CO): 110.6 BB
BTN: 102 BB (VPIP: 26.37, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 99)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) A 3 3
MP checks, Hero bets 9 BB, MP calls 9 BB

Turn: (34.5 BB, 2 players) A
MP checks, Hero checks

River: (34.5 BB, 2 players) 4
MP bets 14 BB, Hero raises to 29.5 BB

[jackvance]

I like 1+3. In 2, hm what does he bet this way on the river? Is he good enough to realize this looks fishy? Seems very history dependent on what I would do.

Also, you're a time traveler?

[pocketfours]

1. c/f flop
2. fold turn, as played call river
3. call river

[surviva316]

Don't like hand 1. What's he gonna put us on? Like 97hh? There are so many second pair/3rd pair/99-JJ in our range, that I don't really know why he would call. Besides, he can have a decent amount of better pairs and not that many worse pairs (even if he calls with all of them). He has like 88/77, and then it gets to be slim pickens after that.

Hand 2:

Fold. Even though our range is capped, we're still close-ish to the bottom of it. Not sure why you think that he reps so few combos, when 2nd pair should be a pretty standard vbet here. Sure, it's a flop where people at these stakes will lead with the nuts a fair amount, but giving him nothing but Tx seems a little extreme.

Hand 3:

Meh, kinda just looks like you're tryin to get called. I also don't think that villain's gonna be shocked iffen you flip an A here, so I would be shocked if he does anything that constitutes a spazz in response to any sizing.

Not saying that I don't like this line. I do really like it for balance, since it's ideal to get a cheap price on bluffs in this spot because it's mostly going to be an air vs air war.

[Carroters]

Thanks for the comments guys.

@P4s, yeah I really think I put way too much money in the pot on earlier streets when later streets are going to be a minefield/really hard to play well or find a good plan on. I think I should definitely just fold the turn since guessing rivers with 4th pair is just going to be gruesome. My red line is gross, kind of always has been as I my blue line is responsible for making up for that and then contributing some win rate, but yeah I can defo minimise turn spew which is a definite recurring theme.

Could you elaborate on why you just want to call river in H3?

@Surviva, H1, I'm bluffing here not value betting as I think there are a bunch of boradway combos like QJ QT KJ KT that can fold. Maybe this is optimistic but I don't think I ever have the best hand and this kind of line gets some credit from many regs as people don't take it as a bluff. His range is pretty capped on the turn and surely contains mostly 2nd and 3rd pairs and not too much else as he bets the turn with better stuff and worse stuff. I guess he also has Ax suited but maybe he golfs that sometimes too (maybe this is way too optimistic)

H2, almost noone seems to value bet thinly enough at 100NL, I'd honestly be pretty surprised to see something like 99 here let alone 8x or worse. This is why I bluff catch a fair bit, people just fail at value betting. That I'd say is one of the most useful population reads in these games.

@JV, Yeah I went to tomorrow and played them then came back to find out what to do for when it's tomorrow again.

[rpm]

hand one i'd probably just C/F flop
hand two i'd fold at every given chance
hand three i'd probably just call river

[pocketfours]

Could you elaborate on why you just want to call river in H3?

The raise is just fine, but a tight villain is going to show up with an ace here a fair amount, especially when we aren't holding one ourselves, so I don't really see this line as a profitable bluff. I'd like a raise much more if you had made it 5 pre and/or against someone with more 'creative' stats. And how much do we hate life if he 3bet jams over this?

[jackvance]

Dont we have nut full in h3? I wouldnt exactly call that a bluff raise.

[Carroters]

And how much do we hate life if he 3bet jams over this?

I don't see why we hate life. When he ships I thinks it's way most likely that we're just splitting and second most likely that he has some kind of spazz our weird line has induced. I think we have the worst hand here a completely negligible amount of the time.

[pocketfours]

Ok let's raise for all we know he could be bad.

[Micro2Macro]

[Savy]

(11:34:44 PM) Savy: you know that Aces full of 3s hand posted by carroters
(11:35:36 PM) Savy: am i right in thinking p4's is saying we shouldn't raise here because we are never bluffing in this spot?
(11:37:36 PM) Savy: and for villain when we do raise it's a good place to 3bet a small % of the time becase we have Ax like 100%

Assuming villain has 33 and AA in his range right?

because i dunno why i didn't just ask in the thread in the first place

Sorry if this post is complete rubbish I'm just a bit lost

[jackvance]

(11:34:44 PM) Savy: you know that Aces full of 3s hand posted by carroters
(11:35:36 PM) Savy: am i right in thinking p4's is saying we shouldn't raise here because we are never bluffing in this spot?
(11:37:36 PM) Savy: and for villain when we do raise it's a good place to 3bet a small % of the time becase we have Ax like 100%

Assuming villain has 33 and AA in his range right?

because i dunno why i didn't just ask in the thread in the first place

Sorry if this post is complete rubbish I'm just a bit lost

How can he have AA with only one ace left in the deck?

[Savy]

Because I'm talking about ranges and we get to the river with more than Ax in this spot.

[jackvance]

I'm not scared of 33 here, more the occasional A4 (although his preflop call makes 33 more likely than A4 ofcourse). I can understand a check because we aren't bluffing here, but I still like a raise. Unless you want the info of his hand. His bet doesn't feel like he has A4/33 here, he can put us on Ax and bet bigger.

edit: so yeah I agree with carroters that the times we are beat is neglegible and we can raise for value in case he misreads our line or spazzes.