IP 4-bet bluff gets flatted 100NL

[Carroters]

Villain has folded to almost every 4-bet he's faced. I think his range here for flatting is hence pretty strong and probably comprised of value range he isn't willing to get in like 99-JJ maybe and AQ perhaps KQs AJs. I also wouldn't fully discount QQ+. I decide to just give up post flop vs this range. River is a great card for my range and not very good for his which I expect to be comprised of AQ AJ kind of stuff by now, maybe sometimes the odd 99/TT that didn't lead the turn.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 146.23 BB (VPIP: 23.92, PFR: 20.14, 3Bet Preflop: 7.64, Hands: 733)
BB: 151.7 BB (VPIP: 25.78, PFR: 18.13, 3Bet Preflop: 8.89, Hands: 362)
UTG: 133.45 BB (VPIP: 13.39, PFR: 11.81, 3Bet Preflop: 6.38, Hands: 131)
MP: 116.38 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 7.50, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 84)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.27, PFR: 21.64, 3Bet Preflop: 5.47, Hands: 567)
Hero (BTN): 186.63 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5 A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 8 BB, fold, Hero raises to 20.4 BB, SB calls 12.4 BB

Flop: (41.8 BB, 2 players) 9 6 9
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (41.8 BB, 2 players) 2
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (41.8 BB, 2 players) K
SB checks, Hero?

[surviva316]

Not totally surprised if villain wrongfully thought he was priced in with 77/88/76s pre, and this is kinda how those hands would play them against your range. I think villain would feel kinda silly c/f'ing 3 streets with those hands on a run out that's basically second only to flopping a set.

That said, we're never good, we easily rep top pair, AQ/AJ is 24 combos, and we can give ourselves a really good price on a bluff here (especially because we're not trying to fold out any pairs). Our range is more capped than his is, so it's a little risky going full-on post oak, but I have a hard time thinking that we don't have the FE to bet anything 18bb or less.

[surviva316]

Also, I'd flat pre against someone who folds so much to 4bs.

[Carroters]

Also, I'd flat pre against someone who folds so much to 4bs.

I don't understand this, him folding loads to a 4-bet when we have A4s is amazingly +EV for us and definitely higher EV than flatting this hand, I don't think it plays all that well in a 3 bet pot. We have plenty stuff we can flat here this is a nut hand and spot to 4 bet bluff imo.

Agree if we bet river it's with the intention of folding out AQ AJs stuff and thus our bet shouldn't be too big. I hope we never get heroed by the likes of AQ here.

[surviva316]

Obviously it's better in a vacuum, but against someone who has an exploitable F24b, we went to form our range wisely. Against someone we're never bluffing, sure make the play that's best in a vacuum, but against someone that we're tempted to 4ball with Axo with, we wanna be extra certain to make any and every 0+ eV flat . . . well, except for the ultra premiums.

That fact that he folds to 4bs a lot implies that we have FE against him, not just preflop, and a hand like A5s is a great hand to flat with the intention of running some bluffs, whereas we're in a 4b or fold spot with much of the rest of our range.

[Renton]

Call pre

I think that you forget that the K is also a great card for his range. He probably hits it 40+ percent of the time.

[Carroters]

Obviously it's better in a vacuum, but against someone who has an exploitable F24b, we went to form our range wisely. Against someone we're never bluffing, sure make the play that's best in a vacuum, but against someone that we're tempted to 4ball with Axo with, we wanna be extra certain to make any and every 0+ eV flat . . . well, except for the ultra premiums.

That fact that he folds to 4bs a lot implies that we have FE against him, not just preflop, and a hand like A5s is a great hand to flat with the intention of running some bluffs, whereas we're in a 4b or fold spot with much of the rest of our range.

Yeah gotcha, I suppose being a bit deeper also helps make flatting a +EV option here.

@Renton: Why do you think he has that much Kx here? I feel like KQ KJs doesn't even flat the 4 bet oop too much if it's in his 3-bet range at all given his high FT4B. Moreover do these hands not stab the turn a decent bit? I expect to see more A high than K high on the river by a good amount and I'd defo discount AK due to pre flop.

[Micro2Macro]

Yeah gotcha, I suppose being a bit deeper also helps make flatting a +EV option here.

@Renton: Why do you think he has that much Kx here? I feel like KQ KJs doesn't even flat the 4 bet oop too much if it's in his 3-bet range at all given his high FT4B. Moreover do these hands not stab the turn a decent bit? I expect to see more A high than K high on the river by a good amount and I'd defo discount AK due to pre flop.

and why do you think this

[Carroters]

and why do you think this

He folds to a lot of 4-bets, doesn't seem like the kind of reg to flat KQo/KJo oop to one AQ TT JJ etc seems a lot more likely based on my experience of this kind of player at 100NL.

On reflection I don't think he necessarily stabs KQ on the turn, but that he'd be somewhat less inclined to show it down than he would A high or some random peel with 77 88 type stuff. This is more of a population read than a specific read on this reg.

[Micro2Macro]

you're 150 deep, he's 3betting from a spot where his range is going to likely be depolarized, and your 4bet isn't big. I think those factors combined increase the likelihood you'll get flat called with a variety of broadways, and also some big pairs that aren't aces.

[Renton]

Yeah gotcha, I suppose being a bit deeper also helps make flatting a +EV option here.

@Renton: Why do you think he has that much Kx here? I feel like KQ KJs doesn't even flat the 4 bet oop too much if it's in his 3-bet range at all given his high FT4B. Moreover do these hands not stab the turn a decent bit? I expect to see more A high than K high on the river by a good amount and I'd defo discount AK due to pre flop.

Well KQs is IMO the single most likely 4-bet flat oop hand in today's games. Specifically, suited kings should make up a ton of his range. On the turn I think he certainly bets any pair for protection/value, and he's probably also tempted to bet his worst bluffs, so on the river you are basically trying to fold out AJ/AT only. I highly doubt he folds an actual pair and you beat Queen high. I think he basically has KQ/KJ/KT suited a ton here and you will get called. If you think he has a better ace high more than 40% or whatever of the time, then by all means take a stab, but IMO he just has top pair a lot.