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3/6 KK on coordinated board...X2?

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  1. #1

    Default 3/6 KK on coordinated board...X2?

    Hero SB: KK
    5 limpers, Hero Raise, 6 callers

    Flop: JdTd9h (14SB)

    Hero Bet, MP call, LP call

    Turn: 3c (8.5BB)

    Hero bet, MP raise, LP call, Hero? (13.5BB)

    Board: JdTd9h3c

    Hero 10.57% { KK }
    MP 67.94% { JJ-99, KQs, Q9s, 87s, KQo }
    LP 21.49% { 88+, AQs, KQs, Q9s-Q8s, J8s+, T8s+, 87s, AQo, KQo, Q9o-Q8o, J8o+, T8o+ }

    I need 7% to call which it seems like I have. I ended up folding here but was really shocked that I made a +EV lay down. If I check back the turn to call I have to be good 8.6% which I still have.

    I think leading the turn was probably my biggest mistake but I don't know how else I should have played this.
  2. #2
    bet/call turn, sets/straights should be discounted with no raise on flop.
  3. #3
    People's ranges at live Low stakes LHE area also much wider. LP will often have two diamonds here (or Qx/8x), with hands as bad as 86o, 63s, etc.

    MP doesn't even necessarily have us beat here. Often a turn raise is 2pair+, but some villains will take this line with tpgk or tp+straight or flush draw. Against 2 pair we are getting way good enough odds to call. If the river pairs any card we just check-call 1 bet because the pot is so large.

    In SS LHE it's a much bigger mistake to make a tight laydown in a big pot, than it is to make a looseish call in a big pot, especially on the river, but I think that applies here as well as there is a very reasonable chance our hand is still good.
    Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
  4. #4
    The reason I thought it might have been a mistake is that live players tend to wait until the turn to put in a raise. Which is a good thing for when I lose hands since they miss value but it makes playing the turn OOP kind of tough. I just feel like I am never ahead and am not sure where the 10% equity comes from (LP?) when I am 95% sure I need a Q (8%) on the river.

    The reason I folded was because if I am only good when I hit the Q, either of them could have KQ, Q9 here even though its discounted by my KK and I would be drawing to a chop. So I guesstimated my equity to be around 6% which I would need a $100 pot to break even. I guess I have that with implied odds but it seemed so thin at the time that it didn't matter which way I went. It would help a little if I knew I would be able to check-raise the river but I'm sure both players would check behind at least most of the time with two pair and some of the time with a set facing a 4 straight board.

    I feel like MP would be more likely to raise the flop with 2pair/sets vs the straight (even though they are almost the same due to the FD) and LP is just never doing anything other than calling.

    If sets and straights are discounted on the flop then what do I give MP credit for with the raise? For the most part the turn was a brick so that brings the action back to a slow played flop IMO.

    I'm certainly willing to accept I made a mistake and I did feel like folding wasn't correct at the time but went against my instincts. Should I have just C/C river? If someone doesn't mind I would love to see another opinion with some EV calculations. I can certainly do it myself (and I have) but would like to see it from another perspective.

    Thanks for the replies so far guys!
  5. #5
    chardrian's Avatar
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    this is a standard, sigh, call turn, c/c river
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  6. #6
    start by adding a ton more draws and top pair hands into your range, I didn't actually look at it before & don't understand how you picked these hands.

    If he's slow playing/being careful with 2 pair (where is two pair? your equity is better vs two pair) or sets/straights no reason to think he doesn't do so with Jx waiting for a clean turn. To a lot of players this will make more sense because with two pair or a set they know they are going to the river and so YOU MUST PAY but if something awful comes he can just fold his AJ.

    re the river, i'd c/c most bricks and lead good ones (Qs and 3s), don't like c/r with anything. I think you can feel fine about folding diamonds, Ks, 7s or 8s
  7. #7
    Late response: Being a shut in I got sick going to the casino so much. New versions of flu evolving everyday so it seems.

    MP: I thought he would raise 2 pair on flop and anything better would wait till turn. I played a few hands with him and he showed competence but still not great. He also played his draws passively.

    LP: Is just a calling station.

    What does adding draws and TP into my range do (serious question)? Neither of these guys are doing anything but playing their cards.
  8. #8
    when I say your range I'm referring to the range you posted:

    MP 67.94% { JJ-99, KQs, Q9s, 87s, KQo }
    LP 21.49% { 88+, AQs, KQs, Q9s-Q8s, J8s+, T8s+, 87s, AQo, KQo, Q9o-Q8o, J8o+, T8o+ }

    which does not have much in the way of draws and no TP hands for MP.
  9. #9
    I just don't think they would do that with TP hands or draws. Not because it would be bad of them but the 3/6 live players avoid value and strategic plays like the plague. If it were an online game I would have totally added more hands into their range.

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