[5NL] AQo...TPTK. Easy fold?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain was 22/15/6 (3bet) through 177 hands. Cbet flop 67%, cbet turn 83%, 5/6. Folded blinds to steal 92% of the time, 75% in the SB. I realize there is no steal in this hand, just pointing out villain was happy to give up blinds fairly often.

Didn't have too many notes on villain other than I had seen him 3bet KK pre and I had seen him 4bet with T9s, calling a 5bet, and shoving on flop with middle pair.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $11.79
MP: $6.83
CO: $9.93
Hero (BTN): $5.00
SB: $5.67
BB: $10.34

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q A

UTG raises to $0.20, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.20, SB raises to $0.55, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.35, 2 players) 8 4 Q
SB bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.75, 2 players) 6
SB bets $1.60, Hero ???

Trying to think of hands that villain could have that I beat? Only hands I can think of is KQ, possibly JJ, although I'm not sure he would fire twice with that.

Possibly flush draws, although I hold the Ac, KJcc maybe?

Looks like an easy fold to me, curious what others think.

[eugmac]

The T9s 4bet/call seems to show he's capable of spazzing some and his 2nd barrell % is high. What were UTG's stats?

[Cobra_1878]

The T9s 4bet/call seems to show he's capable of spazzing some and his 2nd barrell % is high. What were UTG's stats?

UTG was weak/passive, 49/4 through 47 hands.

[eugmac]

Ah, and combined with the small 3bet size I think we can narrow the range to being more value-heavy as opposed to him squeezing with K9s.

[eugmac]

Sorry I'm writing one-line posts as my thoughts come in small bursts lol.

Weak passive fish with a tight PFR range gets 3bet for value, so what would a reasonable value 3bet range be?

UTG fishy 4% might look something like {JJ+, AJs+, AQo+}

That means SB can't 3bet him for value with AQ, as UTG's range would have AQ crushed. If he perceives UTG's range the way we do, a reasonable value 3bet range woudl be more like {QQ+,AK}

But his hand sample size is pretty small, so it's possible that UTG's PFR is a bit wider. Let's also consider that he might do it with {99+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo}, which is 8%. Now a good value 3bet range vs him would be {JJ+,AQ+}. edit: this was assuming he's gonna basically continue with 100% of his opening range. If he folds AT and KQ to the 3bet this is spew to include AQ in his value 3b range.

Anyway assuming SB villain realizes that it's spew to 3bet for value here with AJo it makes me want to actually fold here PF, or do the pot odds and our position dictate that we should definitely call?

[Cobra_1878]

Sorry I'm writing one-line posts as my thoughts come in small bursts lol.

Weak passive fish with a tight PFR range gets 3bet for value, so what would a reasonable value 3bet range be?

UTG fishy 4% might look something like {JJ+, AJs+, AQo+}

That means SB can't 3bet him for value with AQ, as UTG's range would have AQ crushed. If he perceives UTG's range the way we do, a reasonable value 3bet range woudl be more like {QQ+,AK}

But his hand sample size is pretty small, so it's possible that UTG's PFR is a bit wider. Let's also consider that he might do it with {99+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo}, which is 8%. Now a good value 3bet range vs him would be {JJ+,AQ+}. edit: this was assuming he's gonna basically continue with 100% of his opening range. If he folds AT and KQ to the 3bet this is spew to include AQ in his value 3b range.

Anyway assuming SB villain realizes that it's spew to 3bet for value here with AJo it makes me want to actually fold here PF, or do the pot odds and our position dictate that we should definitely call?

I hadn't considered how SB might perceive UTG's raising range, that actually changes things a lot and prob makes it even easier to fold this turn.

I still don't think I can fold pre though, 3/1 on my money and I have position, still an easy call I think.

[eugmac]

Just so you know AQ has 29% equity vs {JJ+,AK} and when you hit, you're not getting action unless you're crushed*, and it's not like we can bluff him off his super tight range a lot postflop, so I think position isn't enough to make up for this disadvantage. Pot odds is not a good reason to call if it's you who's getting reverse implied odd-ed postflop.

* well his 2nd barrelling % is high so if we go into calldown mode we may see him barrell away with AK (and less often JJ) on a Q high board like we have here. That's a pretty narrow set of circumstances to hope for post-flop, though!

[eugmac]

BTW AKdd is a hand you forgot to consider in his barrelling range, as a sidenote. KQ and KJs are unlikely due to reasons stated.

[Cobra_1878]

OK Eug, thanks a lot. Some really good insight there that I hadn't considered.

[JKDS]

Agree with Eug. If Qxx is a bad board, i want to just fold pre.

[daven]

i'd look closely at both preflop actions. reads on utg are important.

[rickyt88]

I'd have a tough time folding, how does villain perceive you? What are your stats like?

[MadMojoMonkey]

If Qxx is a bad board, just fold pre.

[rpm]

normally i'd be comfortable flatting pre because we likely dominate some "light" 3betting hands he'll hold (Ax,Qx) but he's 3betting a passive fish's UTG open from the SB. i think this is a fold pre.

[kickass]

i could fold to the 49/4s utg raise before i folded to the sbs faggot raise
i prolly call now and fold rivers bar the ace and queen

[griffey24]

Haven't read other posts, but this is as gin of a board as you're gonna get. If you're calling pre you have to go with this hand. If you can't go with this hand... then what.. waiting for QQx? QQQ? AAQ? boards?

I think folding pre is fine when someone is SQ vs an utg opener.