[10NL] ATo...BB vs BU

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 40/35 over 20 hands. CB 80% (4/5)

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $10.50
BTN: $16.11
SB: $11.54
Hero (BB): $12.48
UTG: $17.79
MP: $17.66

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A T

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65, 2 players) 8 T 3
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.25, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

River: ($3.25, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero ???

Somewhat similar to the previous hand I posted except villain seems a lot more LAGG (small sample size).

Can we c/c 3 streets w/ TPTK here? I think villain can have a lot of worse Tx hands but I'm not sure if he bets all of them over 3 streets - betting QT over 3 streets seems somewhat unlikely so I guess we're only beating KT and that seems a stretch even for a LAGG player. Sooooo fold?

[relaywisp]

I think us having the ace of clubs is pretty significant. We're blocking up to 8 bluff combos.

Villains value range might be something like this:
T8 - 6
sets - 7
approx of some discounted combos in his value range
some T3s(folds pre), some A2(checks flop/turn), some 85s/T5s(checks flop) ~ maybe 4-8 combos
up to 16 76
maybe 25-30 value hands all together, so we need to find more than like 8 or 9 combos of bluffs.

not knowing what his bluffing frequency here is, hands he might be bluffing are J9 (16), 97 (16), 96(4-16), clubs (~20?), (value betting worse) Tx (maybe a few combos). If he's betting these combos more than about 13% it's a call.

Hopefully I didn't miss too many hands

[spoonitnow]

He's loose and aggressive, and one way to adjust to that is by expanding your calling and check/calling ranges. Along those lines, I think it's completely fine since you're not really strong enough to raise at any point here.

[Cobra_1878]

Thanks for feedback guys - good point about Ac blocker relay. I hadn't thought about that at the table but I did consider it as I was reviewing the hand. It seems hard for villain to be value betting a worse Tx over 3 streets though.

Do we think the call pre is OK? Given his early stats we can assume he opens his BU pretty wide so by just calling we keep in all of his worse Ax and Tx which is exactly what we want.

[griffey24]

Playing the same and calling river always. So much stuff bricked, all FD's, QJ, J9, 79 etc.

This is likely near the top of our c/c down range, unless you are c/c (instead of c/r) sets or two pair on this flop, which is prob not that likely.

[OngBonga]

Calling down vs this guy.