*** Witch Hunt: Village of Souls gameplay thread ***

[jyms]

agree.

[jyms]

I am just putting out my two most likely villagers. Incase I get killed tonight. Not because of anything between you guys. Just my feeling

[rong]

The idea behind the theory is two players who based on their play are unlikely to both be on the same side. Not pick your two most likely villagers! I'm tempted to lynch you just for thinking that.

[gabe]

if we kill jkds, and rule out jyms, jv and me for the fingering, we have to choose 2 out of

hoopy
pascal
rong
daven
luco

i think luco seems v v likely to be village. to me he seems like a villager caught in his own world.

hoopy has been conspicuously uninvolved but ive thought this about him before when he was a villager. he could be a wolf but i dont think its as likely as the rest of the bunch.

daven might be a good choice, but i dont know whether to put him with rong or pascal. so my default is just to pick rong and pascal.

burn jkds now and tomorrow rong or pascal finger eachother. if one wont do it, he is a witch. if neither does it then we found 2.

[Pascal]

The idea behind the theory is two players who based on their play are unlikely to both be on the same side. Not pick your two most likely villagers! I'm tempted to lynch you just for thinking that.

let's say we pick me to finger you tomorrow, because one of us is a witch. i then get killed in the night by the witches - does that mean you're a witch, because they knew you were going to die anyway, or does it mean you're a villager because they want us to lynch you and it looks suspicious that i'm lynched as it saves you getting fingered. the second one is level 0 thinking so it's not exactly hard to go level 1

[gabe]

if youre both villagers the witches shouldnt kill either of you. they just kill a bystander and win the game

[Pascal]

so if neither of us are lynched wouldn't best EV move be to not finger?

[gabe]

only if we lynch a witch tonight.

if we miss tonight then fingering is only option tomorrow

if we miss tonight I'll snap-finger anyone that bolds anyone tomorrow

[Hoopy]

Hoopy, I asked you this while I was taking heat. You never answered.

Must have missed it, I don't want to lynch you today and think you slightly lean towards villager.

[Luco]

i think luco seems v v likely to be village. to me he seems like a villager caught in his own world.

Sad but true. Hoping to run better tomorrow.

Pascal is still my top pick though.

[jyms]

I still get the feeling Hoopy is just cruising the thread looking for his name. I still think without any input from him he's our best shot right now.

[gabe]

there's only 3 people who shouldn't like this plan

what else is there to do

[jyms]

there's only 3 people who shouldn't like this plan

what else is there to do

I think the only thing wrong with the plan is our solid "witch" lynch tonight. We really need a witch.

If we lynch JKDS and he flips witch I think Luco is still a good bet
If we lynch Pascal and he flips, I am not sure who we make finger tomorrow
If we lynch Hoopy or Daven do we have another chocie to finger tomorrow?

If told to finger someone I will only listen to gabe, Rong and JV

[gabe]

jyms/luco pick 3 people to lynch/finger/finger. we only need 1 hit to be in great shape

saying only who is your top pick is only part of the issue

[gabe]

we need a set of 3 that can never all be villagers. we should be in agreement enough as a town to have an advantage

[Pascal]

luco/jkds/jyms for me

[Luco]

Pascal, hoopy, jkds.

Despite rong's obsession there's little else to pin on him.

[jyms]

Hoopy, JKDS and Pascal

[jyms]

although JKDS, Luco and Rong is a gaurentee as well

[gabe]

Despite rong's obsession there's little else to pin on him.

i disagree. here was the small post i made about him

just reread and i dont like how much rong is pushing the luco train. the word 'towning' is not a big deal, its probably been said independently hundreds of times. also its a big reach to connect that a newb witch would be influenced enough by another witch to actually sound like him.

my senses tell me he was pushing these tangential things because he was a witch trying to make a story. i think normally as a villager he wouldnt get so involved in this storyline.

im not sure hes a witch but imo there is enough to pin on him to throw him in the mix

[Pascal]

gabe i take it your 3 are jkds rong and me?

in which case lynching jkds seems like an easy start. i'm happy to finger someone i'm convinced is a witch (otherwise we lose me) so if someone sets out a case for rong i may be convinced

[gabe]

i know im a villager. also jackvance said he would bet everything that i was a villager. i cant imagine a scenario where he would say that, where he would be wrong. a witch could say that, and a villager could have that read, but a witch never says that if im a fellow witch. and if hes not a witch, he is saying that because he believes it. so in conclusion: I'M A TOWNIE

since i can almost prove im a townie, the people who i think are also town should matter. luco/jyms/jv all seem town, and all want hoopy/pascal/jkds (in jv's last post http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2143682 he says jkds, pascal, hoopy, or daven).

how could any of these 3 (jyms,jv,luco) be witches yet we all agree?

[Pascal]

not entirely sure what you're saying, it doesnt really make sense

that said, i'm happy to assume youre a villager, not seen you post anything which makes me suspect you. i'm holding on to my suspicion about luco but it seems we all agree on jkds so let's lynch him tonight and you tell me who to finger and i'll finger them

[gabe]

gabe i take it your 3 are jkds rong and me?

in which case lynching jkds seems like an easy start. i'm happy to finger someone i'm convinced is a witch (otherwise we lose me) so if someone sets out a case for rong i may be convinced

any combo of jkds, you, hoopy, rong. i prefer you over hoopy.

maybe id be OK with [hoopy,rong,pascal] if JKDS can conjure up a good witchhunting post. the only way we lose this way would be for those 3 [] to all be innocent, which would mean 3 wolves would come out of (jyms, jv, gabe, jkds, daven luco), which is hard to imagine.

but i very much want to pick from those 4 at the top. if someone can link a couple of them in the right way, im listening

[Hoopy]

JKDS lynch and pascal + daven finger tomorrow.

I still get the feeling Hoopy is just cruising the thread looking for his name. I still think without any input from him he's our best shot right now.

Name mentioned.....creating response post.....contacting server.....post sent.....end ezgame script.

[Pascal]

any combo of jkds, you, hoopy, rong. i prefer you over hoopy.

maybe id be OK with [hoopy,rong,pascal] if JKDS can conjure up a good witchhunting post. the only way we lose this way would be for those 3 [] to all be innocent, which would mean 3 wolves would come out of (jyms, jv, gabe, jkds, daven luco), which is hard to imagine.

but i very much want to pick from those 4 at the top. if someone can link a couple of them in the right way, im listening

i'm a villager so let me finger someone. i'll do it right now if you want

[jyms]

Not on your life. The plan is in motion, just not the players

[gabe]

we don't want a villager to finger someone. we want to select 2 witches, tell them to finger each other and laugh all the to victory when they wont

[jyms]

JKDS lynch and pascal + daven finger tomorrow.

Name mentioned.....creating response post.....contacting server.....post sent.....end ezgame script.

i'm a villager so let me finger someone. i'll do it right now if you want

These two posts lead me to some interesting thoughts. We could be wrong with Pascal, so making him finger tomorrow is gold. I think we lynch hoopy (really? JKDS, pascal and Daven??) and let pascal finger our choice tomorrow

[rong]

If we're looking for 3 people with a guaranteed wolf, look at the post count. There's 3 people with considerably less posts than the rest of us. I would bet anything that there is at least one wolf there, there always is, every game.

[Luco]

I wanna hear more from jkds

[Pascal]

just fwiw if you make me finger someone and i'm wrong we take out two villagers, if the plan is to take out a witch or the fingerer is a witch then you better give me a witch to point at as you're 50% wrong already

[jyms]

just fwiw if you make me finger someone and i'm wrong we take out two villagers, if the plan is to take out a witch or the fingerer is a witch then you better give me a witch to point at as you're 50% wrong already

Stating the obvious here hehe. If we get a witch and you finger a villager we are screwed. That's why we want village input.

[Luco]

How long do we have left today?

[jackvance]

Hoopy is a witch I'm sure.

[gabe]

im trying to compare who hoopy, pascal and jkds all have in their top 3 list (jkds mentioned 4 in his last post but one is me so i can rule it out). i think with enough good thinkin' we can make a perfect 3 way hedge

jkds: daven hoopy jyms

pascal: luco jkds jyms

hoopy: jkds pascal daven

[gabe]

im liking [hoopy daven pascal]

the fact that pascal and hoopy both put jkds makes jkds more innocent?? guess? 2 of them listed daven but he's not been a prominent target...hmmmmmm

[gabe]

although if rong is a witch, we would likely lose. he suggested going after the bottom 3 in post count, who are pascal daven and hoopy. hard to see him saying this, if he was a witch along with one of them being a witch. so maybe thats a good reason to not just pick the bottom 3 on the post count list

[rong]

Hoopy, daven & pascal make up the bottom 3 posters (by some distance) as I said in my post above. There's always a wolf in there, always. I'm equally meh on all of them.

[gabe]

you are meh on them but havent named a different set of 3? stop slacking rong

or is that your way of saying u want to choose those 3?

[jackvance]

Hoopy bolded Pascal, rescinded later and bolded JKDS. Why not bold your fellow witches huh, they won't get mad and come after you, plus it dissociates you (like wolves like to do). Would be funny if this really is their team.

[gabe]

lets lynch jkds, and have hoopy finger daven tomorrow

all aboard

[gabe]

ignore that last post

lynch hoopy
tomorrow jkds fingers daven

if he doesnt after 15 hours or something then we finger him ourselves. if jkds or daven is killed we "vote" on who takes their place

[jyms]

I could get on this

[jyms]

I could also switch JKDS with Pascal depending on the dead tonight.

[gabe]

ya but we know jkds acted like he wanted daven to die, so if he doesnt follow through with fingering daven it will be extra shady, which makes it easier for us. but obv im suspicious of pascal too

3 votes for hoopy right? me jyms jv

[rong]

you are meh on them but havent named a different set of 3? stop slacking rong

or is that your way of saying u want to choose those 3?

I'd like to choose luco, JKDS and someone else. I've been harping on about those two for a long time. With good dam reason imo. But the only person who agrees with me on luco is pascal who isn't exactly doing much to convince people of anything.

What I'm saying in my above post is exactly what I said. That pool (hoopy, pascal, daven) will guarantee us at least 1 wolf.

This game has been weird as we haven't really had the usual votes and lynches to sieve through and the post count is much lower than normal which has made it more difficult to spot low posters, but this day has been busy enough that the bottom end is starting to separate from the rest of the group. You could also argue that due to their lower activity they'll be worth getting rid of before dday anyway. But I've not looked through their posts to have more reason than post count. I've paid attention as I've read through, but as I said, they've come access meh, hard to say much about any of them, but isn't that normally the way with the lower posters.

[jyms]

Luco had him as #2

[jyms]

Also, I'm still of the mind that the JKDS/luco connection exists too. That whole wagon and non lynch has me baffled

[rong]

I think if we have JKDS in the list of 3 we should also have luco.

[Luco]

If we're rolling on hoopy I'll come along. I only tied him in because of rong but he's far from worst pick today.

[gabe]

I'd like to choose luco, JKDS and someone else. I've been harping on about those two for a long time. With good dam reason imo. But the only person who agrees with me on luco is pascal who isn't exactly doing much to convince people of anything.

What I'm saying in my above post is exactly what I said. That pool (hoopy, pascal, daven) will guarantee us at least 1 wolf.

This game has been weird as we haven't really had the usual votes and lynches to sieve through and the post count is much lower than normal which has made it more difficult to spot low posters, but this day has been busy enough that the bottom end is starting to separate from the rest of the group. You could also argue that due to their lower activity they'll be worth getting rid of before dday anyway. But I've not looked through their posts to have more reason than post count. I've paid attention as I've read through, but as I said, they've come access meh, hard to say much about any of them, but isn't that normally the way with the lower posters.

if you think taking the bottom 3 [hoopy pascal daven] lands a wolf, and at the same time you jkds is a good choice, AND you find yourself agreeing with pascal on luco, then having the 3 be [hoopy daven jkds] seems like it works for you

[Luco]

Also, I'm still of the mind that the JKDS/luco connection exists too. That whole wagon and non lynch has me baffled

It's the key to today. Still can't make sense of it.

[gabe]

I think if we have JKDS in the list of 3 we should also have luco.

isnt the whole idea that they are tied together? if one is a wolf the other is more likely a wolf, so why do we need both of them?

[hoopy jkds daven] is making more and more sense

[rong]

Gabe, I thought the whole idea was a group of two with at least one being a wolf.

I think that at least 1 and possibly 2 of JKDS & Luco will be wolves.

Likewise, I think at least one of Pascal, Hoopy & Daven will be a wolf.

I don't necessarily think that one of the group of jkds, hoopy & Daven will be a wolf, although I think there's a reasonable chance that it contains one.

So in order for me to be happy that I definitely think our group of 3 contains a wolf, I need it to be one of the above two groups.

[rong]

The way Gabe is running the show now, it would be sick if say him and JV or him and Jyms are two of the wolves. In some respects I hope the wolves eat him tonight just to put my mind at ease.

[gabe]

Gabe, I thought the whole idea was a group of two with at least one being a wolf.

yes. it was my understanding that most of the reasoning for luco being a wolf related to jkds also being a wolf (wasnt this the whole reason you were calling out how luco sounded in his posts?). so if jkds is a wolf 0% of the time, luco is also rarely a wolf. since those 2 players are correlated, having both of them on the 3[] list hurts our chances.

in other words, when can luco be a wolf while jkds is a villager? the answer is non zero, but most of the luco case was built on jkds being a wolf. so we dont really need to add luco to the 3[] list

[jyms]

are we waiting on Daven and JKDS who neither has posted on this page?

[gabe]

also you say "Likewise, I think at least one of Pascal, Hoopy & Daven will be a wolf."
earlier you cited pascal agreeing with your luco allegation. it seems like the best of both worlds to replace pascal on this list with jkds. maximum witch hunt success distribution

[rong]

yes. it was my understanding that most of the reasoning for luco being a wolf related to jkds also being a wolf (wasnt this the whole reason you were calling out how luco sounded in his posts?). so if jkds is a wolf 0% of the time, luco is also rarely a wolf. since those 2 players are correlated, having both of them on the 3[] list hurts our chances.

in other words, when can luco be a wolf while jkds is a villager? the answer is non zero, but most of the luco case was built on jkds being a wolf. so we dont really need to add luco to the 3[] list

Well, you're somewhat correct. The whole towning thing is what connected Luco to JKDS and grabbed my attention initially, but his whole demeanor and terminology in general makes it seem like he's being coached and or discussing things away from the game thread. This ties Luco to any more experienced player and makes him my favoured lynch target (most likely wolf). However JKDS, as picked up by others has been wolfy, this combined wonderfully with my luco theory, but either way they are both as a whole my favourite 2 targets.

[Luco]

Gabe and jv are the only ones who trust me. I have to hope the other two villagers out there can trust in them if they can't trust me yet.

I dunno, I've said my piece enough times now. It is what it is, this thing is prob solvable if I get lynched / night killed with a bit of careful reading.

I hope I've at least contributed. Will get a nice long post in soon and see what night brings.

Still really want pascal because I have a way stronger read on him than hoopy but I will follow gabe and jv. There is always the possibility I'm wrong.

[Luco]

Thoughts on pascal / rong / jyms?

When I said I'd finger rong, jyms quickly questioned the value of chasing a villager that would finger when cornered.

[Luco]

Not sold on it, rong said slow down when jkds hit three votes.

[gabe]

also the more i think about it, its harder for rong to be a witch with this post

More thoughts on fingering. It's am awful idea tonight.

Assuming we lynch a villager tonight (if not the whole fingering point is moot) and the wolves kill a villager, we're 4-3 tomo. Normally this means mis-lynch and its over, however this game the villager about to be lynched always fingers at that point. So we have 3 shots at hitting a wolf. A 3/9 chance today, 3/7 chance tomo and then if we've fucked all of those a random villager gets a 3/6 shot with a finger bang.

Once we get a wolf this will all start to piece together. I suddenly don't feel we're in that bad shape.

But a finger bang tonight would be trading 2 shots that each have better odds and more information for 1 shot tonight with less info and considerably worse odds. It's both stupid and selfish.

[rong]

also you say "Likewise, I think at least one of Pascal, Hoopy & Daven will be a wolf."
earlier you cited pascal agreeing with your luco allegation. it seems like the best of both worlds to replace pascal on this list with jkds. maximum witch hunt success distribution

I cited pascal agreeing me not to show my solidarity with hi but to show how futile my case seemed to be. You're intentionally taking me out of context.

[gabe]

not taking you out of context just trying to persuade you [jkds hoopy daven] is a good one

[jyms]

Why are you still posting names. Just pick 3 and be done with it. We are using the choices to come to a consensus. If you keep throwing out new names how does that help?

[gabe]

^ lazy post by me. but i dont have much else to say as to why i dont like jkds+luco in the 3[]

[wufwugy]

gabe - hoopy
luco - pascal
hoopy - jkds
rong - luco
jyms - hoopy
jv - hoopy
pascal - luco
jkds - jyms

no vote - daven

hoopy = 3
pascal = 1
jkds = 1
luco = 2
jyms = 1

Day ends about 22 hours from now. 11:00 AM PST

[jyms]

Why are you still posting names. Just pick 3 and be done with it. We are using the choices to come to a consensus. If you keep throwing out new names how does that help?

This was meant for Luco


I gotta start quoting the threads I am talking to/about

[jyms]

gabe - hoopy
luco - pascal
hoopy - jkds
rong - luco
jyms - hoopy
jv - hoopy
pascal - luco
jkds - jyms

no vote - daven

hoopy = 3
pascal = 1
jkds = 1
luco = 2
jyms = 1

Day ends about 22 hours from now. 11:00 AM PST

I thought JKDS had rescinded my name?

[jyms]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post2143457

yep

[rong]

I'm guilty of that every time I use my phone which is most of the time.

[Luco]

It would appear the four of us already have a consensus in hoopy. Will switch soonish.

[gabe]

yes but we should agree on who is the fingerteam tomorrow i think. i think it puts the witches in a tougher spot