Werewolf - Collapse of Civilization

[OngBonga]

Yeah sorry shotty I was drunk and thought I was being funny. Hey it was funny last night. Surely you know all about making a tit of yourself when drunk Miss Jack? Haha!

Also sorry village for spamming the thread with drunken ranting, again I was simply amusing myself.

I have a punishing hangover, so you can laugh at me today!

Anyway, back to game... I'm pretty much on the very same page as wuf, his analysis sums up exactly my thoughts.

TLR nails without even realising it why the wolves will leave the medium alone should we lynch supa... they could get to 3-1, which means we have no room for manoeuvre. If we lynch the wrong medium, we get to 5-1. If we lynch the correct one, we're at 7-1. The risk the wolves take by leaving the medium alive is that a) the dead villager looks up a wolf, b) the scan is successful, and c) the medium reaches out to that villager. That's a fair few factors, meaning the actual % chance the last wolf is exposed is maybe around 20-30%, though without actually knowing the % of a successful scan, that's obviously speculation. I guess it depends how much of a risk the wolves feel they need to take to win this, but if I was on the wolf team, thinking we were in trouble, I'd take the risk.

It's not a risk I want to take as a villager, I don't want to give the wolves the chance to leave the medium alive.

We now have two likely villagers in myself and wuf claiming that the last two wolves are gator and shotglass, lolz has already hinted that he thinks this too. I think we should put this to the test... by lynching gator. If he's a wolf, we can lynch shotglass tomorrow and see where that takes us. If she's a villager, we'll have to reassess, but so long as gator is a wolf, then we know lolz is the medium and he can lead the village from there.

Guys, switch to gator and tomorrow we know where we stand.

[OngBonga]

Rilla, can I ask, do the wolves know the % chance of a successful scan?

[TLR]

Yeah sorry shotty I was drunk and thought I was being funny. Hey it was funny last night. Surely you know all about making a tit of yourself when drunk Miss Jack? Haha!

Also sorry village for spamming the thread with drunken ranting, again I was simply amusing myself.

I have a punishing hangover, so you can laugh at me today!

Anyway, back to game... I'm pretty much on the very same page as wuf, his analysis sums up exactly my thoughts.

TLR nails without even realising it why the wolves will leave the medium alone should we lynch supa... they could get to 3-1, which means we have no room for manoeuvre. If we lynch the wrong medium, we get to 5-1. If we lynch the correct one, we're at 7-1. The risk the wolves take by leaving the medium alive is that a) the dead villager looks up a wolf, b) the scan is successful, and c) the medium reaches out to that villager. That's a fair few factors, meaning the actual % chance the last wolf is exposed is maybe around 20-30%, though without actually knowing the % of a successful scan, that's obviously speculation. I guess it depends how much of a risk the wolves feel they need to take to win this, but if I was on the wolf team, thinking we were in trouble, I'd take the risk.

It's not a risk I want to take as a villager, I don't want to give the wolves the chance to leave the medium alive.

We now have two likely villagers in myself and wuf claiming that the last two wolves are gator and shotglass, lolz has already hinted that he thinks this too. I think we should put this to the test... by lynching gator. If he's a wolf, we can lynch shotglass tomorrow and see where that takes us. If she's a villager, we'll have to reassess, but so long as gator is a wolf, then we know lolz is the medium and he can lead the village from there.

Guys, switch to gator and tomorrow we know where we stand.

We get to 3-1 on the worse case scenario with one wrong villager lynch, if we lynch the medium tonght we get to the same 3-1 on the next wrong villager lynch but we will be with much less info

Given that none of the mediums said at any point that his lookup was not answered successfuly I would believe that the chance of success is really high.

Both you and Wuf work under the assumption that Lolzzz is the medium and Gator is a wolf and I am not sure this is the case, I think it is about 60-40%

[OngBonga]

@TLR - Yes, I'm under the assumption that lolz is the medium, and I have explained why I think this is the case. I do not think a wolf lolz would target gator, since gator would be a great villager to have on final day from the perspective of the wolves, since the other villager would probably lynch him out of paranoia. If lolz was a noob, I could accept he could make this decision to remove a strong villager, but he's a vet with vastly more experience than I have, yet I can figure out that gator would be better left.

Of course, I could be wrong, but even if we assume lolz is 60-40 likely to be the medium, that suggests we should give lolz the benefit of the doubt, not gator.

Lolz has confirmed one villager and one wolf, gator has confirmed four villagers. This again makes me think that lolz is the true medium, since gator is basically claiming that every scan has been successful, where lolz is not.

How do you figure we're at 3-1 if we lynch the wrong medium tonight? We would have an easy lynch tomorrow, so we would definitely be at 5-1, only getting down to 3-1 if we make a bad lynch the next day. That means we have two lynches to win, and at least some confirmed villagers.

I also don't know how we have less info if we lynch a medium tonight. That might be the case if the wolves nom the medium should we lynch supa, but I really am not convinced they will do this, especially if shotglass is a wolf.

I'm also not convinced that the % chance of a successful scan is high, if we're to assume lolz is the medium it looks like it's 50%, where gator's list suggests it is much higher, though obviously we all know a small sample means very little.

We're in a tough spot, but we're in a much simpler spot once we know who the medium is. I just really, really do not want to be in the same boat tomorrow as we're in right now.

[TLR]

@TLR - Yes, I'm under the assumption that lolz is the medium, and I have explained why I think this is the case. I do not think a wolf lolz would target gator, since gator would be a great villager to have on final day from the perspective of the wolves, since the other villager would probably lynch him out of paranoia. If lolz was a noob, I could accept he could make this decision to remove a strong villager, but he's a vet with vastly more experience than I have, yet I can figure out that gator would be better left.

You have stated this arguement before and it makes little sense, people do not lynch out of paranoia but based on arguements, and Gator can argue his case better then any player left in this game, in a 3 player situation when Gator is the wolf I would put my money on Gator convincing one villager the other is a wolf

Of course, I could be wrong, but even if we assume lolz is 60-40 likely to be the medium, that suggests we should give lolz the benefit of the doubt, not gator.

No we shouldnt

Lolz has confirmed one villager and one wolf, gator has confirmed four villagers. This again makes me think that lolz is the true medium, since gator is basically claiming that every scan has been successful, where lolz is not.

Is, Lolzzz came up with the weak line of I forgot to do a lookup

How do you figure we're at 3-1 if we lynch the wrong medium tonight? We would have an easy lynch tomorrow, so we would definitely be at 5-1, only getting down to 3-1 if we make a bad lynch the next day. That means we have two lynches to win, and at least some confirmed villagers.

we get to 3-1 if we are wrong in the medium lynch and one more villager lynch, we are argueing about the order of events, I think it is better to go villager-medium-wolf and you are argueing it is better to go medium-wolf-villager

I also don't know how we have less info if we lynch a medium tonight. That might be the case if the wolves nom the medium should we lynch supa, but I really am not convinced they will do this, especially if shotglass is a wolf.

If we lynch the medium we do not get his lookup info. No lookup info is less info then having lookup info
And as I said about 55 times so far the most profitable move for the wolves is eating the medium, saving us the guesswork

I'm also not convinced that the % chance of a successful scan is high, if we're to assume lolz is the medium it looks like it's 50%, where gator's list suggests it is much higher, though obviously we all know a small sample means very little.

Show me a night when lolzzz said I looked up and failed

We're in a tough spot, but we're in a much simpler spot once we know who the medium is. I just really, really do not want to be in the same boat tomorrow as we're in right now.

We are in a good spot as we know that there is one wolf within Gator/lolzzz group, instead of forcing the wolf to make a play that is good for us and getting the msot out of the medium you want to ensure that the medium is dead tonight (according to you we either lynch him or the wolves eat him
You are trying so hard to convince the village to go for a play which is EV+ for the wolves that I am starting to think that you just might be the last wolf (I kniow some things dont add up by both you and Gator and to a lesser extend you and lolzzz make some sense)

[OngBonga]

I'm not the last wolf TLR, if I'm making suggestions you consider to be +ev for the wolves then it's due to lack of experience. I know lolz has not made any claims that there has been an unsuccessful look up, but then he has given us only two pieces of information and has already sown that he is playing a very cryptic game. I really don't think a player of his experience will forget to make a contact, I prefer to imagine that if he is the medium he is keeping his cards close to his chest in an attempt to flush out some extra info, though I'm not sure how that works in this spot. Again, lack of experience.

I guess I'm still set on gator being a wolf, I've thought it since night 2's events and see no reason why I should abandon this belief.

You have stated this arguement before and it makes little sense, people do not lynch out of paranoia but based on arguements, and Gator can argue his case better then any player left in this game, in a 3 player situation when Gator is the wolf I would put my money on Gator convincing one villager the other is a wolf

I'm really not sure about this, honestly. After his last performance as wolf, I'd be very worried if I found myself up against him and, say, wuf for the final three. If I were a wolf, I would try to use his performance last time against the village, I would look to keep him in and then convince the remaining villager that he has not been nommed for one reason... because he is the wolf. I think I would have a very good chance of getting him lynched. Maybe again this is noob lack of experience, maybe I should wait until I have played as a wolf until I make such assumptions, but it's what I think.

I do respect your argument though, because you have played this game so much more than I have, and I do think you're a villager. I'm not switching to supa though because I'm still fairly certain that lolz is the medium, there was no reason at the time for him to fake out, though I realise he might have guessed the village would think this, giving him more credit.

If you really think I'm a wolf, thanks for the compliment!

[Shotglass]

Yeah sorry shotty I was drunk and thought I was being funny. Hey it was funny last night. Surely you know all about making a tit of yourself when drunk Miss Jack? Haha!

No offence taken, like I write sometimes: "get me drunk and watch the show!"

[Ragnar4]

If you really think I'm a wolf, thanks for the compliment!

whaaaat? How is that a compliment?

[Shotglass]

Of course, I could be wrong, but even if we assume lolz is 60-40 likely to be the medium, that suggests we should give lolz the benefit of the doubt, not gator.

If someone hands you a gun and tells you that it's not loaded, but you come to find out that it is loaded, will you believe that person in the future when they tell you the same thing about a different gun?

If your answer (or anyone else's who believes lolzzz), to that question is "No", then you need to re-evaluate what lolzzz did with philly.

[Shotglass]

If you really think I'm a wolf, thanks for the compliment!

confirmed wolf; 100% soulread

[OngBonga]

whaaaat? How is that a compliment?

bonge - if hes a wolf hes the best ever. he had a hardon for me and put it all on the line. hes making genuine cases against people and running fast on them. hes playing exactly the way i did in my first games when i wanted to be a baller soulreader

.

[OngBonga]

confirmed wolf; 100% soulread

Please vote for me!

[OngBonga]

If someone hands you a gun and tells you that it's not loaded, but you come to find out that it is loaded, will you believe that person in the future when they tell you the same thing about a different gun?

If your answer (or anyone else's who believes lolzzz), to that question is "No", then you need to re-evaluate what lolzzz did with philly.

You're not assessing all of the variables. I do not know that lolz is the medium with any certainty, but if he is, his philly wagon can be explained, I have told you this already. Sometimes you just have to let the medium run the show.

Shotglass, let me ask you a question... why do you suppose gator voted for wuf when he had a train running on him, despite gator knowing he was a villager? You seem set on this philly thing, yet you completely ignore the most telling piece of info we have regarding who the medium is likely to be. Give me your explanation, I have explained to you why a medium lolz might wagon philly without knowing his role, it's your turn.

[TLR]

You're not assessing all of the variables. I do not know that lolz is the medium with any certainty, but if he is, his philly wagon can be explained, I have told you this already. Sometimes you just have to let the medium run the show.

Shotglass, let me ask you a question... why do you suppose gator voted for wuf when he had a train running on him, despite gator knowing he was a villager? You seem set on this philly thing, yet you completely ignore the most telling piece of info we have regarding who the medium is likely to be. Give me your explanation, I have explained to you why a medium lolz might wagon philly without knowing his role, it's your turn.

The Wuf train run on Day 2; Gator claimed to look up Wuf on night 2 (that is, after day 2)
I dont recall another Wuf train, but I may be wrong

[OngBonga]

Yeah the wuf wagons stopped dead after benny got shot on night 2, and gator "looked" wuf up that night. I'd have preferred it if you let shotty answer that, but meh.

I hadn't noticed this, I guess I was getting the nights confused. Maybe we should lynch supa after all. I need to reassess what I believe is the best course of action.

[TLR]

Yeah the wuf wagons stopped dead after benny got shot on night 2, and gator "looked" wuf up that night. I'd have preferred it if you let shotty answer that, but meh.

I hadn't noticed this, I guess I was getting the nights confused. Maybe we should lynch supa after all. I need to reassess what I believe is the best course of action.

Try to ask yourself the following question:
If you were a wolf what would be the course of action that will give you the best chance to win

[OngBonga]

Try to ask yourself the following question:
If you were a wolf what would be the course of action that will give you the best chance to win

I've been asking myself this a lot over the last day or two, and I came to the conclusion it depends greatly how much heat the wolves are getting. If I were in gator's shoes as a wolf, with shotglass as my partner, I would take the gamble and leave the medium alive. If I was a wolf coasting, I would nom the medium to protect myself from being found out. But you're asking someone who has not yet been a wolf to put himself in the shoes of a wolf. It's not easy.

[Hoopy]

Nail in the coffin time, all this confusion isn't helping the village.

rescind supa
lynch Gator

[TLR]

Nail in the coffin time, all this confusion isn't helping the village.

rescind supa
lynch Gator

Bad move

[OngBonga]

Is that the sixth vote? rescind gator just in case it's 5, just so we can keep the day going on.

[OngBonga]

Nah gator is a dead man, my rescind is too late. No bother,we'll just have to reassess tomorrow based on the info we get tonight.

[Shotglass]

Is that the sixth vote? rescind gator just in case it's 5, just so we can keep the day going on.

It was the 6th, but now it's gator - 5; supa - 4

[OngBonga]

Gator hit six votes so is going to the gallows, my rescind is not valid.

[Shotglass]

Nah gator is a dead man, my rescind is too late. No bother,we'll just have to reassess tomorrow based on the info we get tonight.

Guess we'll need Mr. Moderator to make a call on that.

[Hoopy]

Bad move

The way I see it we either lynch the medium but gain 4 known villagers and 1 wolf or lynch a wolf immediately and be left with 1 confirmed guy + several people with strong cases for being villagers.

So it's either 7 - 1 tomorrow or 5 - 1 in 2 days time.

[Hoopy]

I mean just don't see supa as a wolf very often, sorry if I've screwed us over in some way guys but I think the village should be in a strong position once all is revealed tonight.

[OngBonga]

Hoopy is right, if gator is medium we'll know 4 of the final 8 roles (after tonight's nom), if he's a wolf we have a 7-1 advantage. This looks good.

[GatorJH]

I guess I can take solice in knowing I put you on a path to win, and sorry if I screwed things up.

Good luck.

[OngBonga]

No arooo?

[GatorJH]

Nope

[supa]

Just a little one? You know you wanna.

[OngBonga]

Fuck. Well played lolz.

[TLR]

Hoopy is right, if gator is medium we'll know 4 of the final 8 roles (after tonight's nom), if he's a wolf we have a 7-1 advantage. This looks good.

We will not know 4 of the 8 final roles, and in any case if the medium was alive tomorrow we would have known one more role

[OngBonga]

And sorry shotglass for thinking you were a wolf. Consider it a compliment, you've played a great villager game that will set you up nicely for when you are a wolf.

Time for everyone to put some serious time into this to flush out the last wolf.

[lolzzz_321]

lol, he is playing u guys till the end, Gator hit six, rilla plz lynch this wolf

[OngBonga]

Will one of you aroo please?

[lolzzz_321]

obv it's gator, i should prolly lock this thread tbh

[GatorJH]

Will one of you aroo please?

Lolzzz won't. He is still in the game.

[lolzzz_321]

nah ill keep it open so u guys can look stupid for believing gator, also i dont want rilla to get mad

[OngBonga]

I'll look stupid if gator is the medium, I'll look stupid if he's a wolf. Nothing new. If I were lolz and a wolf, I'd be arroooing every post by now. Come on.... someone aroooo please!

[Shotglass]

Come on.... someone aroooo please!

not gonna happen

[OngBonga]

I can't wait until the day I can arroooo at you all. Gator seems most sincere, but who knows now? That apology to you shotty only applies if gator is the medium! And I think tis chit-chat is ok, in real life it's the same as having a chat on the way to the gallows.

Have some apt music...

Hang the Bastard

[a500lbgorilla]

And the meek shall inherit the grave. GatorJH, the Medium, has fallen by villager hands.

The village of Netherlife:

Bikes
Hoopy
Lolzzz_321
OngBonga
Ragnar
Shotglass
Supa
TLR
Wufwugy

2 Werewolves
7 Villagers
12 Dead

bigred, the Turncoat, lynched on day 1
Willburforce, a villager, eaten on night 1
fulksy, a villager, lynched on day 2
BennyLaRue, a werewolf, shot on night 2
DanAronG, a villager, eaten on night 2
Warpe, a villager, lynched on day 3
Boog690, a villager, modkilled on day 3
jackvance, a villager, modkilled on day 3
gabe, the Vigilante, eaten on night 3
Philly and the phanatics, a villager, lynched on day 4
DropTheBanana, the Angel, eaten on night 4
GatorJH, the Medium, lynched on day 5

































lol jk. Could you imagine? Seriously though, GatorJH, a werewolf, died to his death.

The village of Netherlife:

Bikes
Hoopy
Lolzzz_321
OngBonga
Ragnar
Shotglass
Supa
TLR
Wufwugy

1 Werewolves
1 Medium
7 Villagers
12 Dead

bigred, the Turncoat, lynched on day 1
Willburforce, a villager, eaten on night 1
fulksy, a villager, lynched on day 2
BennyLaRue, a werewolf, shot on night 2
DanAronG, a villager, eaten on night 2
Warpe, a villager, lynched on day 3
Boog690, a villager, modkilled on day 3
jackvance, a villager, modkilled on day 3
gabe, the Vigilante, eaten on night 3
Philly and the phanatics, a villager, lynched on day 4
DropTheBanana, the angel, eaten on night 4
GatorJH, the werewolf, lynched on day 5

P.S. no one is confused by this post. Gator is a werewolf.

Medium PM me, the recently departed may PM me, the werewolf PM me. Let's close this night 5 out by 4 PM EST Friday.

[a500lbgorilla]

The human vessel which stood at the nexus between the living and the dead, lolzzz_321, the Medium, was jawed and toothed to death by the lone werewolf last night. The death of the medium is abhorrent to the very nature of Heaven and Earth... what shall happen to those souls not yet nestled in Heaven now?

The village of Netherlife:

Bikes
Hoopy
OngBonga
Ragnar
Shotglass
Supa
TLR
Wufwugy

1 Werewolves
7 Villagers
13 Dead

bigred, the Turncoat, lynched on day 1
Willburforce, a villager, eaten on night 1
fulksy, a villager, lynched on day 2
BennyLaRue, a werewolf, shot on night 2
DanAronG, a villager, eaten on night 2
Warpe, a villager, lynched on day 3
Boog690, a villager, modkilled on day 3
jackvance, a villager, modkilled on day 3
gabe, the Vigilante, eaten on night 3
Philly and the phanatics, a villager, lynched on day 4
DropTheBanana, the angel, eaten on night 4
GatorJH, the werewolf, lynched on day 5
lolzzz_321, the Medium, eaten on night 5

Let's say day 6 ends Monday 9pm. 5 votes to lynch.

[wufwugy]

needed webcams up for reaction videos of medium-gator

[supa]

I just stared at the screen for like 20 seconds before scrolling down. Woulda made a pretty awesome "first I was like..." meme.

[wufwugy]

well im not gonna sit around and watch what happens

not pulling back too far from shotty as of now, but tlr is my final. he wasnt doing much early, but was all interested in recent events, made that one post claiming he thought philly and dtb were the most likely wolves, but at the time i thought they were not likely wolves at all but likely angels, he could have easily been more obvious about hunting because soon village victory would be cinched if the angel wasn't found

gator was talking to the other wolf when he said this btw

I guess I can take solice in knowing I put you on a path to win, and sorry if I screwed things up.

Good luck.

So it means he was up to something. We think maybe it was supa because they went after each other, which is a legit idea; we think it was shotty because of opposing behavior to that of gator/supa relationship, which is also a legit idea; but then we realize gator never said shit about tlr. Why? Because only a couple more wrong lynches are needed for the last wolf to win, and simply stirring a pot around others could easily do that especially since tlr is the type who could derail his own wagon and hes the best player left

tlr wanted supa dead because it was the right move statistically but also it was a better move if hes a wolf as it would have been almost a free kill since the gator situation was clouding judgement.

something like this wins it for tlr

supa lynched
lolz nommed

gator lynched
wuf nommed

shotty lynched
bikes nommed

ragnar lynched
anybody nommed


that is a very clear path to victory because tlr can probably beat up on hoopy due to status and post count alone even though hes such a likely villager, supa and shotty are likely lynches, ragnar will be an easy lynch as soon as somebody makes a case against him other than me saying what ive said on him, and bongie is probably on the border of being trustworthy but you still never know, similar could be said for me

[supa]

Yeah, can't see much better choice than TLR right now tho I think there's a not so bad chance Rags is the last wolf but I really need to reread the thread first. Don't have time right now. Let's drag this one out let whoever it is suffer for a while.

[wufwugy]

im saying that perhaps the smartest way for gator to aid the remaining wolf would have been for that wolf to not be focus for suspicion. just raise enough suspicion, like has been done with supa and shotty, and thats a bingo for someone like TwoLfR

[Hoopy]

oh dat Gator.

I need to properly reread the last 2 pages, but I think wuf's last post is very good.

Obviously bikes needs to post his overall thoughts today.

[Ragnar4]

Uhhh how do we go from shottie being a prime candidate to shottie being all but ignored in wufs post? Ongie will get in here and beat on that drum soon enough.

Im not digging the TLR lynch honestly. He seems helpful. Supas been playing like me. So its tough to point a finger at him.... But i think he may be a cruising wolf.

[supa]

^ Not even possible. Have no idea how shot could be a wolf either.

[Shotglass]

Well, in keeping with what I told Ongie,
lynch Shotglass.

Not gonna bold though because I'm not a wolf, just a dumb gullible blonde and it would better serve us to actually try to figure out who's last than to snap lynch anyone.

Don't really have any thoughts about who's last, yet. I was absolutely certain that gator was the medium, lolzzz was full of crap and either wuf or bongie were the last. But...

Since I got COMPLETELY owned yesterday, I deserve whatever I get.

Sorry, lolzzz.

I'll take another read through this monstrocity and see if I can add any help to finding the last one.

[wufwugy]

tlr also never went after gator. thats kinda weird

even though tlr was right on a certain statistical level that letting the medium thing play itself out, its not unreasonable to think that he should have seen through gators bullshit. i saw through it with several explanations why, and i honestly didn't pay much attention to that whole day. i later gave it a read over, but it might be a pretty important point that somebody on tlr's level should have seen through gator's weak shit. if i tried, i could come up with reasons why shotty thought lolz was the baddy, but tlr is a different case in that he's uber veteran and afaik an uber veteran would know that lolz being a wolf there is very unlikely while gator being the medium/seer is also very unlikely

we do have a serious problem in that there is reasonable suspicion on most of us

[Hoopy]

Alright I've got my list put together.

Villagers

bikes - confirmed

wuf - based on what happened with the flip on day 2 and Benny staying on his wagon + lots of other stuff, head asplode if he's a wolf

ongbonga - clearly is leveling himself at times, doubt it is possible for him to post that much and seem so genuine.

Hoopy - Benny started a wagon on me on day 1, flipped against BR on day 1, BR attempted to start a train on me. Nail in coffin for Gator.

supa - Attacked Gator very genuinely imo. If he was a wolf then leaving it as a flip between him and Gator meant there was a 50% chance that the wolves lose (supa lynched, both mediums lynched). Seems similar to the last time he was a villager.


Possible Wolves

TLR - Wanted to lynch supa instead of Gaotr/lolzzz, has pretty much coasted along with barely any suspicion so far. The wolves have been pretty sharp this game and I can definitely see TLR fitting as the last wolf in that team.

Shotglass - All over the place but in a different kind of style compared to Ong. Can easily imagine Gator/Benny being on the level that they think the village would say "lol no wolf plays like this" so let her post crazy stuff.

Ragnar - Has been semi quiet and detached, floating along in the background without much suspicion. Modkilling thing makes him my least likely suspect.

Looking back at gabe's list I think he nailed a lot of villagers and got most of it correct. Maybe we go ahead and lynch shotglass today?

Bikes**
Boog690
DropTheBanana
GatorJH
Hoopy*
Jackvance**
Lolzzz_321**
OngBonga*
Philly and the phanatics*
Ragnar**
Shotglass
Supa**
TLR*
Wufwugy**
Warpe

* for each person i think is a very likely villager, 2 for extra villagery

I'll check this thread tomorrow morning but will be away until Sunday morning.

[supa]

Like hoopys list but looking over rags posts including this one

lolzzz what?

Seriously, why would you out as a Medium? It increases the odds that the Wolves find the angel!!!

I don't even think there's any chance ever that this is a fake outing either. I'm just gonna slap you with the "Medium tag" and move on. I think the biggest problem is: You're a confirmed villager, and so you're going to die a lot earlier than non-confirmed villagers. So for someone that doesn't get to play often, where surviving as long as possible would be considered a premium... good job man... :eyeroll:

I seriously am back to just staring at Ongie vs Wuf and wondering why certain people are allowing this stuff to just flow over without any analysis.

I'm thinking he's a legit villager.

[OngBonga]

Evening. I'm drunk again, I'm at a party and like a sad bastard I'm checking this thread. Jesus I need to sort myself out. There's pretty girls in the next room!

Anyway, my initial drunk thoughts are... obviously I want to lynch shotglass, I had gator read from night 2 and so I don't see any reason why I should abandon my theory that shotty is his partner, it's entirely plausable that he said to her "just go full on defending me, because they would expect me to tell you to be more careful", and after he saved wuf on night 2, he's already demonstrated he's attempted to play this one balls out.

However, for some reason I'm really uncomfortable with hoopy nailing gator in the way he did... I just can't help feel that gator told him to do it, because it would give him such a huge amount of villager cred. Maybe just drunken thoughts, and I'm not going through the entire thread tonight.

I'm good with stretching this day out until the very end, I'm busy this weekend but monday I can put some time in.

To sum up, here's my list...

Villagers...

Bikes ldo, ongie, wuf, ragnar, supa... and I think TLR, though I'm gonna have a look at all of his posts when I can.

That leaves shotglass, my prime suspect, and hoopy, who I'm after if shotty is a villager.

Right now I think the village should trust me on shotglass, I had gator soulread this game, and he's a tough nut to crack, so clearly I'm not an idiot at this game, but if bikes has any better ideas then the village should obviously follow his lead.

Will pop in when the party dies down, I'll be even drunker by then so I apologise in advance for anything I say!

[wufwugy]

Like hoopys list but looking over rags posts including this one



I'm thinking he's a legit villager.

rag also said the opposite about lolz after gator outed

frankly, id like to write him off simply by merit of almost being modkilled (but then again i keep thinking the flipped happened for a specific reason). i dont feel bad losing to a wolf who doesn't play, i just feel cheated. imo modding should be so heavy that even flirting with being modkilled means youre modkilled, or something like the mod can choose to straight up out the role of anybody not participating a lot

its just that if ragnar is the last wolf, this is fucking stupid

[bikes]

thanks tanes for signing my death warrant. ass.
i think hoopy is a confirmed villager still.

dont think theres anything left to do except remove everyone who voted for tanes.

lynch tlr

[wufwugy]

hey bongie wanna cyber

[wufwugy]

dont think theres anything left to do except remove everyone who voted for tanes.

please explain why you think this is the cinch

[Shotglass]

Missed a few

Looking back at gabe's list I think he nailed a lot of villagers and got most of it correct.

Bikes**
Boog690 Villager
DropTheBanana Angel
GatorJH dead wolf
Hoopy*
Jackvance**
Lolzzz_321**
OngBonga*
Philly and the phanatics*
Ragnar**
Shotglass villager
Supa**
TLR*
Wufwugy**
Warpe villager

* for each person i think is a very likely villager, 2 for extra villagery

The only explanation that I have for my crazy posting is relative noobness and over thinking the game by thinking that everyone was trying to run a level. The time that I actually think that someone's being straight I get burnt.

I have several questions:

Just my opinion, and as a noob that just got seriously owned - my opinion is worth squat, but shouldn't we be taking a look at some of the people that were on the bw for gator?

imo, wouldn't it give a lot of credability to the sole surviving wolf to cast a vote to lynch a wolf, or am I over thinking this game again?

dont think theres anything left to do except remove everyone who voted for tanes.

lynch tlr

TLR - why did you tell hoopy that it was a bad move to be the hanging vote for gator?

Bad move

Was this your way of setting up a derail for your own future BW?

[Shotglass]

That leaves shotglass, my prime suspect, and hoopy, who I'm after if shotty is a villager.

Right now I think the village should trust me on shotglass, I had gator soulread this game, and he's a tough nut to crack, so clearly I'm not an idiot at this game, but if bikes has any better ideas then the village should obviously follow his lead.

This is the last defense that I'm going to make:

I think that this series of posts (combined with my previously posted thoughts on the philly lynching) will better explain why I thought lolzzz was a wolf, plus fairly well prove that I'm a villager:

hmmmm i learnt that bikes is a villager

Why the hell would you throw this out there when it makes him a great target to get nommed and several good players have recommended that the medium keep his info to himself until he gets two or three confirmed villagers?

More than making him a great target, it narrows down the list of suspects for the wolves while they're angel hunting.

tbh, i didn't learn bikes is a villager, i just wanted to see shotglass' reaction

thanks tanes for signing my death warrant. ass.

If enough people still think I'm a wolf then there's nothing that I can or will do about it.
I still think that we'd be better off trying to determine who the last wolf is and make a reasonable lynch attempt, instead of just lynching me for making a noob mistake by strongly defending someone (one that I hope I won't repeat.)

Like wuf wrote: we only need a few wrong lynches to give the last remaining wolf a fighting chance - so we should seriously think this move before casting votes.

[Ragnar4]

thanks tanes for signing my death warrant. ass.
i think hoopy is a confirmed villager still.

dont think theres anything left to do except remove everyone who voted for tanes.

lynch tlr

italicized for emphasis

Even this is bad. Because the wolves would have communicated about the outing before it happened.

I've been in fake outings before, A wolf hops on the wagon, the outing occurs, and the wolf is hidden among the sheep.

There's no more likelyhood looking in either place, and they could have gone either way. I think the fact that Bikes probably dies tonight may be something we can leverage somehow, but I can't come up with how. Anybody got anything?

[Ragnar4]

Snap.. Just read that Lolzzzz said that he only threw out that Bikes is a villager to try to level Shotglass.

Never mind on that whole bikes catching the grave tonight thing.

[OngBonga]

Shotglass, I don't think you're a wolf purely because you have been defending gator, if you go back to the beginning of day three you will notice that I said there that I was beginning to suspect you. Once I said that, your attitude towards me changed dramatically, instead of being on my side (which should come as no surprise if you're a wolf since my boner for wuf appears to agree with the wolf target), you suddenly start trying to build a case against me in an attempt to get me lynched. The way I see it, you saw me as a threat, especially so since I also came after gator as soon as the day started.

Also, going back through day 2, it seems pretty clear to me that ragnar is a villager. Rilla mentioned several times that he was "flirting with death", gator himself posted immediately after one of these posts from rilla, so I imagine that gator would be telling him to post. I guess it's possible that ragnar actually had too much real life shit and gator couldn't contact him, but I think it's very likely that ragnar is a villager.

[OngBonga]

hey bongie wanna cyber

I'm not that drunk. Try again over the weekend.

[bikes]

going through the people who voted for tanes instead of gator comes down to this.

yes wolves sometimes go for 'vote to lynch to wolf to remain with the sheep'. but in this scenario it does not apply and if it does its a pretty large mistake imo. if it were very early in the game it would be a different story.

if tanes was to get lynched yesterday the wolves would get rid of the medium as well as be able to eat a villager of their choice, which is pretty important this stage in the game because it directly affects the way the village line of thought goes. when today started there would be 6 villagers and 2 wolves instead of 1 wolf and 7 villagers. we would obviously lynch gator today and tomorrow that would put it 1 wolf and 6 villagers.

instead we lynched gator giving us the 7 to 1 advantage. making the game nearly impossible to screw up at this point.

[bikes]

also fwiw i prolly die like a giant % of the time tonight so if u want any further explanation ask me now\

[bikes]

forgot to add in my previous post that since the vote was soooooooooooo close that it makes it even more unlikely a wolf would jump on the wolf wagon

[wufwugy]

come to think of it, if ragnar is wolf, rilla would probably get heat for choosing to flip instead of modkilling like he said he would. so he's gotta be village then

i tend to have nefarious ideas though. like i dont think rilla flipped on my lynch day. i think he saw fulksy hadnt posted for days, the village clearly didn't care much about lynching me, and the wolves wanted to at least give me a shot at living. so i think he just let me live, and only said he flipped so as to keep it fair. obviously, im not gonna ask him, and i wouldn't expect him to do anything but defend the fact that he flipped like he said he did

just sayin, im always thinking people do small dishonesties for good intentions

[TLR]

We have to take anything Gator posted in the last day in the view that he knew he is going to die, and thus as a plan to aid the last wolf once he died. As I said a few times it was a bad move to get him dead because as long as he posted it was more likely the last wolf would make a mistake.

I have to reread the last few days but those are my thoughts so far

Villagers:
1. Bikes - villager (probably soon to be dead villager)
2. Ragnar - most likely villager due to flip issue

Most likely villagers:
1. Wuf
2. Shotglass - She may be a wolf in a sort on level on level on level that she will appear to side with Gator, but I doubt it

This leaves Supa, Hoopy and Ong as the last suspect

Based on yesterday Ong was the most likely candidate as he did the most effort to separate himself from Gator, going out of his way to get Gator lynch. However the most obvious move for him today was to go hard after Shotty.

Yesterday there was a point when Supa and Gator were both on the chopping block, if they were both wolves Gator would have need to subtly make sure he would get lynched instead of Supa, I dont recall something like this but I have to find some time to reread thru this day again.

I think that all things considered Hoopy is the most likely wolf

lynch Hoopy

It was clear to me that I would get some heat once Gator would die, but I still stand by my arguement that lynching either him or lolzzz was a bad idea, we might have enjoyed another lookup or the other wolf or gator might have made a mistake.

If anyone has time to go thru the list of posts yesterday and see who avoids Gator, do not quote him and tries not to discuss him - this is the most likely wolf

[TLR]

One more thing about Hoopy

The wolf needs to go thru three more nights to win, based on yesterday it is clear that the easiest thing to do is try to get either Shotglass or me lynched - those are the top two names on his list without bolding anyone (he needs to get someone to start the BW and easily join on it)

[bikes]

hoopy was pretty much cleared to be a villager day 1

[TLR]

hoopy was pretty much cleared to be a villager day 1

why do you think that ?