How High Can You Get?

[Jason]

YTD Total $6,861.39 ( $3,555.28 BEHIND pace)
May Total -$519.41 ( $2,602.33 BEHIND pace)
April Total -$369.00 ( $2,452.33 BEHIND pace)
March Total $2,254.70 (+ $171.37 ahead of pace)
February Total $2,982.97 (+ $899.64 ahead of pace)
January Total $2,512.13 (+ $428.30 ahead of pace)

May Total ---> -$519.41
Venue ---> Profit ---> Profit%
FullTilt ---> $721.45 ---> -138.90%
PokerStars Bonus ---> $200.00 ---> -38.51%
FullTilt Rakeback ---> $104.29 ---> -20.08%
Live Games ---> $64.75 ---> -12.47%
PokerStars ---> -$1,609.90 ---> 309.95%


Sorry about the length - Cliff notes are below


Last month, Stars moved my cheese and during the month of May, I was still searching. I started off playing mostly 200NL 50bb max tables because that's where the fish are. I got off to a great start and then hit one of those "run worse than you ever thought was possible" patches. I don't usually look @ EV numbers or graphs nor do I know how accurate they are, but I do know the running theme to this point ever since I moved up to 200NL both 20bb to 100bb and 20bb to 50bb has been when the money gets all-in with cards to come, if I'm ahead and the pot is LARGE, there is a better than normal chance I will get sucked out on. If I'm BEHIND and the pot is LARGE, there is a better than normal chance I won't catch any cards to save me. Basically, I've been losing a TON of all-in pots when it gets large around a buy-in to two buy-ins large or more. I figure out what cards can beat me, say them out-loud, and like magic, they appear. According to HEM since I moved to 50bb max, I'm $2k or 10 buy-ins behind EV where I should be. And, don't get me started on the coolers. I've got two cards to get the nut flush and lose a huge pot in a RAISED pot with someone who had 53s using two cards for a straight flush. Blind war in the small blind with AJ and flop AJ6 losing to 66. Blind war trying to isolate a fish with KK and get it all-in with a reg who has, what else, AA. In the small blind in another blind war with KK lose again to AA. Twice I've had AK, get an ace, and lose to AA - card removal probabilities be damned Anyway, we've all been there, done that, so you get the picture I'm sure.

I could live with all that, but the truth is that even if I hit my EV and didn't get coolered so much, I'm still not playing optimally. Part of that is probably due to tilting issues I am both aware and unaware of but I also think a majority of it is related to just trying to learn new games and dynamics due to the cheese getting moved. It's been a struggle trying to adjust to these 50bb max games and I keep catching myself doing things I believe to be sub-optimal well after the fact. The first problem was I started adding too many tables. My theory was that 50bb max was not as complicated of a game as 100bb max and that I could add more tables easily to generate the same amount of VIP and hourly as before. That DID work out well initially, but also eventually came back to bite me as I started missing out on notes and the flow of action. I also realized my pre-flop raises were too big and I was bleeding money as much as a buy-in when it felt like I was playing break-even. Sometimes I would completely lose track of the fact I was playing a half stack and would plan a big river bluff or shove only to discover I didn't have enough left to do that. Or, I would lose track of my stack and get pot stuck where I was probably behind but a call was the right decision based on pot odds and the amount of money I had invested. I think blind steals are not as important in half stack play as they are in full stack play and I think I've been leaking money there. I could go on and on, but the point is that half stack play is not the same as full stack play and I'm having to learn and adjust and it feels like EVERY lesson is costing me in real money @ the tables.

I also don't believe there is as much money to be made in the games @ Stars compared to the way things were before. Now, I'm not saying "No money @ Stars, everyone is solid", but I AM saying that for MOST players who play NLHE in the 100NL FR to 400NL FR range, that your ability to earn money has probably gone down. There are exceptions like players who played only 50bb min might not notice much change, but 50bb max games have all the fish just like they used to in 20bb to 100bb games. I'm convinced that by and large a skilled player who was making money @ 20bb to 100bb can't make the same or better in the 50bb max and it's simple math to prove why. The fish and YOU don't start with as much money so you're already capping your upper gains. Then, when you add in all the pre-flop and flop shoving, which seems much more prevalent than before, your edge gets taken away even more-so. Top it all off with trying to adjust for half stack optimal strategy and money just isn't flowing in nearly as fast as before.

So, why not play 40bb min buy-in games or deep you might ask? Well, I have done some of that, but the games are just awful imo. It's reg, nitfest city, which was exactly how 50bb min games were before and why I avoided those. A 40bb min 100NL game NOW is at least as hard if not harder than a 20bb min game was @ 200NL. I've seen a LOT of players dropping stakes across the board when it comes to 100bb stakes. It only took me 2 weeks to realize I couldn't keep playing 100bb @ 200NL as it was as tough as I imagined 400NL+ games would be and more importantly, NO FISH.

So, to try to make a long story short (too late, I know), I decided that I am moving most of my play to Full Tilt. It was a difficult decision that I didn't take lightly, but the writing is on the wall that under the current Stars cash game structure, there is little future for me there. Under the old structure, I had visions of moving up to at LEAST 400NL and hopefully 600NL or 1kNL too. Under the current structure of 100bb games, the games seem to have dried up in terms of fish and I don't have the same hope I did before. The goal is theoretically still possible for 50bb max, but those games are very frustrating with all the shoving, very volatile and high variance because of all the shoving, and then you have less possible earn compared to similarly skilled games @ 100bbb and just your edge is slashed overall. The game is different than 100bb and I've spent too much time learning 100bb to give up that skill which is applicable to every other online site and live play. By contrast, I'm not excited about trying to learn half stack strategy where it would only be applicable at Stars.

So, I've moved to Tilt where the structure is good and the 100bb games are MUCH better than Stars 100bb games and there is hope for more advancement. It does come with a price, though. For starters, I don't have enough money @ Tilt nor a track record of success @ Tilt, so I can't pick up playing 200NL as I was @ Stars. I'm playing 100NL and need to earn the full 30 buy-ins and have a $6k roll before I'll set foot in a 200NL FR game there. Because I'm not used to the software and all of the different dynamics on Tilt compared to Stars, things aren't rolling as fast as they would be @ Stars in the "good ole days", but I am moving upwards slowly but surely SO FAR. I'm just really excited because the games ARE good and there are a lot of fish and the shove fest is over, so I'm very happy about that.

The really big disappointment is that I was on pace to get Double Nova and will only play enough on Stars to get SuperNova. By not going for Double Nova, I will forfeit about $8.2k in VIP money ($3.4k milestone and $4.8k FPP's) from Stars. I will continue to get 27% rakeback from Tilt, but it wouldn't be nearly as much than if I could keep playing @ Stars. I still think it's a good move long-term as VIP and rakeback are just bonuses to me and my ability to earn at the table and have hope for advancement to move up stakes is where my main priority lies and where I think my best opportunity to earn also lies. On the plus side, rakeback is given back weekly @ Tilt, where I have had my FPP's and bonuses tied up for months to years on Stars. And, even though I won't be going for Double Nova, I still have about $5k of milestone and FPP money waiting for me @ Stars once I get Nova and am able to either get a $4k instant cash bonus or use concierge service or bite the bullet and get a never-ending pyramid scheme cycle of $4k clearing bonuses.

As much gloom and doom as it seems like, it's not all bad news my mental game has REALLY come a long way. I thought I was mentally tough, but I've been through so much that I realize I wasn't as tough as I thought, but now definitely am tougher. I also realize that new hurdles even worse than this one will always be around the corner, so hopefully I won't be as surprised and ready for future challenges. I've learned a ton about how I can lose focus when things go bad AND when things go good. I'm also glad to rid myself of the Stars addiction. They can really put the pressure on you to keep playing to maximize rewards and it feels great to just play when I want and not have to meet a quota. I didn't realize until now how dependent I was on Stars and to be a well rounded player, I need to have the ability to earn on both sites without missing a beat or at least not missing such a huge beat. But, at the same time, if Stars fixed their games to my liking, it's nice to know I can still come back. I'm starting to get comfortable on Tilt for the first time pretty much ever. But, I do have a long way to go and won't consider myself a success there unless or until I can build my bankroll up to $6k and win at least 30 buy-ins @ 100NL FR.

So, hopefully this month I can get off the snide and back to winning again, but I'm trying not to have too many expectations. I'm also going to Vegas to play cash games @ the WSOP, so that'll be a great chance to win or lose hundreds if not thousands

Cliff Notes:
- I had a bad month on Stars largely due to bad run and bad play which I think are largely related to the new Stars cash game structures but surely me tilting and not being God's gift to poker had something to do with it, too
- I don't like Stars new structure for many reasons
- Because of the recent Stars climate, I decided to move to Tilt and play 100NL FR until I have a $6k bankroll and win 30 buy-in @ 100NL at which point I may resume @ 200NL FR as I had been on Stars
- I'm going to Vegas this month where I'm sure it'll be feast or famine

[daven]

I figure out what cards can beat me, say them out-loud, and like magic, they appear.

definitely sort this out, it's a sick type of tilt. Hell, I rarely even look at the table once i've clicked all-in until AFTER the hand is finished. What's the point, really? this was a recent evolution (mid-may) by the way, and it's gold.

According to HEM since I moved to 50bb max, I'm $2k or 10 buy-ins behind EV where I should be. And, don't get me started on the coolers.

sounds like my month, 17bi behind etc. Re the coolers, i thought the same, but then i ran filters over set over/under set and two card flush over/under two card flush and realised i was suffering selective memory and net only down 5 or 6 buyins on these spots.

the point is that half stack play is not the same as full stack play and I'm having to learn and adjust and it feels like EVERY lesson is costing me in real money @ the tables.

spend a few hours on lines and bet-sizing vs getting allin on the river etc and you'll be shocked and it will make a bunch of money for ya long term.

I also don't believe there is as much money to be made in the games @ Stars compared to the way things were before.

I'm convinced that by and large a skilled player who was making money @ 20bb to 100bb can't make the same or better in the 50bb max and it's simple math to prove why. The fish and YOU don't start with as much money so you're already capping your upper gains. Then, when you add in all the pre-flop and flop shoving, which seems much more prevalent than before, your edge gets taken away even more-so. Top it all off with trying to adjust for half stack optimal strategy and money just isn't flowing in nearly as fast as before.

if you move up a blind level then your buyin is the same = money making is the same, right?

So, to try to make a long story short (too late, I know), I decided that I am moving most of my play to Full Tilt.

interesting, a few ftr regs have recently moved FTP -> stars and are singing in the streets about how much softer the games are on stars, i'm about to join them for a while