The difference between the Tebow situation and your description of Brady is that the risk/reward ratio is all out of whack.

Brady was a 5th or 6th round pick. Those picks have like a 15-20% chance of making it on an NFL roster beyond their rookie and sophomore years, if that. And just to make it onto a roster, much less be a star.

If the Patriots were wrong with their assessment on Tom Brady, meh - small risk to try to find a good player.

1st round picks are expected to *produce*. Teams need to hit on these picks often in order to sustain their talent pool. You miss on enough 1st and 2nd round picks without commensurate existing talent or the ability to pick really good people in late rounds...and you end as the Detroit Lions.

The fact that the Broncos traded for Brady Quinn as well just makes the Tebow situation all the more weird.

But hey, the Broncos went 6-0 to start last year when I thought they would go 1-5 or 0-6...so what do I know?