AKo vs nit

[profnabeshin]

MDK is running 20/3/45 over 60 hands.
He is UTG and limps. There are many limpers and I raise to 6BB's. He then raises to 60BB's. We are both rather deep. I have about 200BB's and he has 150ish, so this is almost half his stack. I probably should have raised more preflop, However, I think the result will be the same here. This table is all limpers. Min raising on this table is like raising 5xBB. I think that calling here is wrong, shove or fold?


Everleaf Gaming Game #244475808
***** Hand history for game #244475808 *****
Blinds $0.02/$0.04 NL Hold'em - 2011/02/23 - 09:06:59
Table Central Park XV
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players: 10
Seat 1: vojaksvejk ( $ 4 USD )
Seat 2: amatar ( $ 7.53 USD )
Seat 3: MDKILLER69 ( $ 6.38 USD )
Seat 4: Morozov ( $ 4 USD )
Seat 5: AKERA ( $ 2.86 USD )
Seat 6: igori1978 ( $ 2 USD )
Seat 7: Hero ( $ 8.19 USD )
Seat 8: Panagiotis1 ( $ 3.62 USD )
Seat 9: Tomik777 ( $ 3.71 USD )
Seat 10: Scatina ( $ 1 USD )
Scatina: posts small blind [$ 0.02 USD]
vojaksvejk: posts big blind [$ 0.04 USD]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ , ]
amatar folds
MDKILLER69 calls [$ 0.04 USD]
Morozov calls [$ 0.04 USD]
AKERA calls [$ 0.04 USD]
Hero raises [$ 0.25 USD]
Panagiotis1 folds
Tomik777 folds
Scatina folds
vojaksvejk calls [$ 0.21 USD]
MDKILLER69 raises [$ 2.26 USD]
Morozov folds
AKERA folds
Hero??
vojaksvejk folds


I put him on {QQ+,AKs} I feel at best I am coinflipping with QQ if I shove.

[Razvan729]

with no other reads i'd fold ... seen them a lot of times opps with those stats taking this line AK,88+ and we have 40% equity against that range so i dont like calling/shoving. fold and wait a better spot.

if you put him just QQ+,AK, then its a deff fold

[profnabeshin]

It looked like a call was almost ok if I expand to {JJ+,AK} do you think 88+ is more accurate?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 10936805 7456889.50 { As,Kd }
Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 20381624 7456889.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

$2.01 to call with $2.90 in pot. 40.9% equity needed

[daviddem]

First you need 40.09% equity but you get only 39.785%, so strictly speaking that is not yet a call.

Besides, this is before rake. When taking let's say 6% rake into account, you will need minimum x% equity where x is such as:
x*($2.90-$0.29)-(1-x)*$2.01=0

2.61x-2.01+2.01x=0
4.62x=2.01
x=43.5% minimum equity

See what rake does to you? Now even against {22+, AK}, you can hardly call. Now take into account how unlikely it is that he shoves 22 into 2 limpers and a raiser.

[profnabeshin]

Besides, this is before rake. When taking let's say 6% rake into account, you will need minimum x% equity where x is such as:
x*($2.90-$0.29)-(1-x)*$2.01=0

2.61x-2.01+2.01x=0
4.62x=2.01
x=43.5% minimum equity

See what rake does to you?

Wow! I had no idea what a huge difference rake makes in determining +/- EV. Thanks for the formula to figure out in future

[JsHammer]

You have 39% Equity if played to the river. Easy fold.

[Razvan729]

[QUOTE=profnabeshin;2016755]
I put him on {QQ+,AKs} I feel at best I am coinflipping with QQ if I shove.[/QUOTE]

you gave that range, we dont know the villain, havent played with him... vs that range that YOU gave, AK and also QQ its a snap fold. why do you even need a formula,rake or other stuff to see its a fold?

[daviddem]

^^^ don't listen and do your math religiously. That is how you develop a feel for similar situations, and you sometimes find out some counter-intuitive stuff when you do the calcs. Besides, at micro stakes, the game is utterly mathematical, and if you look up to the super-pros, you will find that most of them are on top when it comes to their math/odds.

Ranges, equity, pot odds, EV, counting combos, blockers. Focuse on that and don't listen to those who say that they "know from their guts".

Patience and tilt control are other big ones. Keep folding when it is correct to do so, even if it is annoying to run bad for hundreds of hands. This morning I won only one pot larger than 10bb at the end of over 360 hands. That was enough to get my session in the green.

[Razvan729]

i agree to math, its a very important part of the game, but in a case like this, AK vs QQ+,AK you need no math, it should from instinct to fold since you are at the bottom of his range.
you do math holding KK and you know for sure villain shoves only KK+?! no you dont,you instant fold.
same here,dont even think about shoving AK into QQ+AK

i agree to david, learn the math, but also learn that shoving with the bottom of someones range is uselles.

[daviddem]

i agree to math, its a very important part of the game, but in a case like this, AK vs QQ+,AK you need no math, it should from instinct to fold since you are at the bottom of his range.
you do math holding KK and you know for sure villain shoves only KK+?! no you dont,you instant fold.
same here,dont even think about shoving AK into QQ+AK

i agree to david, learn the math, but also learn that shoving with the bottom of someones range is uselles.

This is not about doing the shoving, it's about calling a shove. And when calling a shove it is often correct to call with the bottom of opp's range or even worse than that or even any 2 cards if the pot odds justify doing so. If opp had shoved $1 into a $2 pot, it would be an obvious call with AK vs {QQ+,AK}

Similarly, you don't "instant fold" to a shove when holding KK vs KK+. If your pot odds justify it, you call. If not, you fold.

Thought you'd know that by now?

[spoonitnow]

i agree to math, its a very important part of the game, but in a case like this, AK vs QQ+,AK you need no math, it should from instinct to fold since you are at the bottom of his range.
you do math holding KK and you know for sure villain shoves only KK+?! no you dont,you instant fold.
same here,dont even think about shoving AK into QQ+AK

i agree to david, learn the math, but also learn that shoving with the bottom of someones range is uselles.

plz for the lov eof jesus ignore the bold parts of this post theyare all wrong

lots of cool times to shove AK into someone just calling wtith like QQ+ and AK and shit and plus ther are times to shove to bottom of vililians calling range

[daviddem]

And now a quick word about limp/reraises: people do that with all sorts of shit and for different reasons. Donks often do it with short stacks and small pocket pairs, figuring that more often than not they got raised by two high cards against which they fare quite well. Or people do it when they tilt, or when they take it personal to be raised "again". Mostly people will do that heads up.

But when it is from a tight or unknown opp in early position who does that with a full stack and facing 3 or 4 players, it is the nuts more often than not (AA/KK). People have actually come to respect that line so much that some opps now do it as a bluff, but they are still the exception rather than the rule. Without a read, don't assume a bluff.

[rong]

Following on from spoons comments:

With AK vs AK, QQ+ you aren't a huge dog. 100bb deep, If you 4b AK pre and the 3b-ing villain shoves with a range of AK, QQ+, it is sometimes a call, depending on bet sizes.

eg.

you raise 4bb, villain 3b to 12, you 4b to 36, villaikn shoves. potsize = 137.5, bet to call is 64. Easy call if villain has boith AK and QQ in his range. It's even a call if villain is only shoving AKs, QQ+

However, you raise 3bb, villain 3b to 9bb, you 4b to 27bb, and villain shoves, then it's a fold as the bet to pot ratio isn't as favourable.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

575,334,144 games 0.468 secs 1,229,346,461 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.594% 19.26% 20.33% 110831016 116968584.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 60.406% 40.08% 20.33% 230565960 116968584.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


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Disclaimer: I have not checked the above thoroughly and have a tendancy to talk out of my ass!