600nl: bet river?

[DBRose]

Hey I'm new to the forums here but looking to get involved heavily as I haven't posted hands/commented on others in a while and I need to! Plus FTR seems like one of the better forums out there.

Anyway, villain in this hand is 24/18/3, fold to 3bet of 63%, UTG fold to 3bet of 33% but sample of only 3 hands. cbets 68%. Reads: he can PFR then check TPGK on a tt flop to me (looking to c/r???), then bet bet turn and river when flop was checked behind. Also turns some hands face up after betting TPGK on flop and c/cing turn and river when an overcard hits on river.

My image is very aggro, will splash around a lot preflop and generally bet when checked to by the PFR. I have stats around 30/25/3 fwiw.

Preflop is meh, button in this hand can be squeeze happy at times so I thought it'd be a good spot to flat KK and SB is a fish, so I definitely don't mind him coming along. 3betting is my standard though.

Flop when he checks to me I am betting with the majority of my range (not sure how good this is though?). So as far as his range on flop/turn I can dee him c/cing with a lot of overpairs and maybe even an AdKc type hand, but in general he'd probably cbet those.

On the river I think it'd be a good spot to 3barrel all of my air, so can I merge with a hand like KK or is a river shove to thin?



No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) -

BB ($619)
UTG ($597)
MP ($690.65)
Hero (CO) ($802.25)
Button ($3463.20)
SB ($433.97)

Preflop: Hero is CO with ,
UTG bets $21, 1 fold, Hero calls $21, 1 fold, SB calls $18, 1 fold

Flop: ($69) , , (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $48, 1 fold, UTG calls $48

Turn: ($165) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $132, UTG calls $132

River: ($429) (2 players)
UTG checks

[lancelott_]

probably a value jam, though it might be a bit too thin? we have around PSB left, i kinda wanna bet like 255$ so that more weaker bluffcatchers from his range can call

He probably cbets sets/2pairs on the flop, as well as 78s (definitely doesn`t C/C), so his hand looks like 88-QQ, probably with 1 diamond

[Micro2Macro]

i'd ship

probably a value jam, though it might be a bit too thin? we have around PSB left, i kinda wanna bet like 255$ so that more weaker bluffcatchers from his range can call

not trying to spam ftr with my blog, but I went on a little rant here involving betting rivers: Random blurb on why SSNL regs suck | three-pair.com.

probably worth reading if you are the type of player who has never value cut himself in his life.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think you are winning a lot so I'd shove. Although its a spot where you have mondo nut hands in your range, it's also a spot where you can concievably have a lot of air and get a hero call.

[aka_red]

I think you are winning a lot so I'd shove. Although its a spot where you have mondo nut hands in your range, it's also a spot where you can concievably have a lot of air and get a hero call.

This. Also I don't really think it is that thin lance. I'm pretty sure you are smashing his calling range even if its narrow.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

yeah Jam it

[DBRose]

Alright cool, thanks for the replies. I agree with jamming it is best.

The only thing is, I'm not sure villain is thinking I'd be inclined to 3ball all of my air and call my river shove because of this (a better opponent would think this given my image). He'd probably fold the weaker part of his 1 pair range like 88/TT even though those hands are pretty much the same as JJ/QQ in this spot. And he might even fold JJ/QQ.

So I'm not sure if I'm valueowning myself too much here with a jam even though the only part of his range that beats me is a flopped slowplayed monster or a highly unlikely flopped set/ 87s/65s hand which I think all bet the flop like Lance said.

[DBRose]

Oh I value cut myself way too much at times

[sauce123]

yea i ship it in for sure. that being said, you might only be good like 40% when called against some people, but typically im willing to jam a hand like this in order to increase the value of my strategy. and i mean, you also might be good 70% when called, its hard to tell.

[Micro2Macro]

yea i ship it in for sure. that being said, you might only be good like 40% when called against some people, but typically im willing to jam a hand like this in order to increase the value of my strategy. and i mean, you also might be good 70% when called, its hard to tell.

this is so awesome. the way you talk about poker just hits me. everything you say related to poker strategy is so sound and clear. i just wanna say i really appreciate you taking the time to respond to various strat threads at what are essentially nano stakes to you. im positive everyone else does as well.

[JL]

this is so awesome. the way you talk about poker just hits me. everything you say related to poker strategy is so sound and clear. i just wanna say i really appreciate you taking the time to respond to various strat threads at what are essentially nano stakes to you. im positive everyone else does as well.

+1

[lancelott_]

+1

+ a van mirrior chibs

really love it when sauce nutsinho and some other good regs are replying (renton etc)

[IowaSkinsFan]

+ a van mirrior chibs

really love it when sauce nutsinho and some other good regs are replying (renton etc)

Screw you

[DBRose]

yea i ship it in for sure. that being said, you might only be good like 40% when called against some people, but typically im willing to jam a hand like this in order to increase the value of my strategy. and i mean, you also might be good 70% when called, its hard to tell.

Ya, thanks for the reply...greatly appreciated.

I need to get better at figuring out spots like this mathematically, like the percentages you mention above. I tend to rely on logic and brute aggression a bit too much. Gotta pull out the stove!

[Ravageur]

Agreeing with the jams, seems like he's weighted towards a similar hand as yours (tt, JJ, QQ no diamond)

[Genitruc]

bet, amount depends on what you think looks weakest from his point of view

[PokerWang]

Same as above