How to stack someone with a set

[freechus9]

Here is a perfect example on how to stack a TAGG with a set.
Villain here is 20/9 after a good number of hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($25.50)
UTG ($18.65)
UTG+1 ($28.30)
MP1 ($9.55)
MP2 ($4.70)
MP3 ($10)
CO ($9.65)
Hero ($26.10)
SB ($47.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 8.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB raises to $3.6, 1 fold, MP1 folds, Hero calls $2.25.

The villains reraise suggests he has AK, JJ-AA since he's a 20/9. Since we've narrowed down his range quite a bit the amount of money in both stacks needs to be around 12x the bet to make a call worth it. The money in the pot along with stacks sizes justifies a call.

Flop: ($7.60) 5, 6, 8 (2 players)
SB bets $4.5,

YUM! This could be a c-bet from a whiffed AK, but if so he's not gonna try to bluff us out on later streets given the PF action and that hes a TAGG. Given this, we want to raise to try to get all the money in the pot! And viola!

Hero raises to $15, SB raises to $48.85 (All-In), Hero calls $7.60 (All-In).

Turn: ($52.80) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($52.80) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $52.80

He has JJ and we win!

[Muzzard]

This is bad as you didn't have the implied odds to set hunt preflop. Well done for stacking the overpair but this is -EV in the longrun.

[freechus9]

False? It's 2.25 to me. I have 24.85 left, there is 5.10 in the pot. Villain covers, so thats a total of 29.95 to be won. Considering we've narrowed down the villain's range quite a bit, I think we have beautiful odds to call.

[Muzzard]

You can't assume that

a) Has over pair
b) Will stack off with overpair evetime

So your 10x rule or whatever is way out, no?

[freechus9]

No, we can't assume he will have an overpair and will stack off with it every time. If that was the case, then we would only need 8x the bet to call. But since we're not sure, we need more than that...like 13x in this example. This is a very standard play.

[Chopper]

This is bad as you didn't have the implied odds to set hunt preflop.

way off, imo, too.

hero's stack is off about a buck, down to $23ish. and the pot is $5ish w/ $2.25 to call. thats 2:1 right there. plus, villain has hero covered...plenty deep here. plus, the 3bet suggests villain WILL take this hand a long way post flop.

granted, the pot is going big, and you had better get really close to stacking villain to make calling this 3bet profitable. but, there are other factors in play that dont require you to stack villain everytime, either.

- does he 3bet light?
- will he fold when he 3bets? cbets?
- this is not always an overpair; therefore, villain will take this w/o a set on occasion, too. board comes 3 5 7 2tone or monotone or rainbow. villain is likely to fold to aggression w/o an overpair.

c/r on flop and weak leads will all take this flop down a good bit against tighter villains. enough to make this play with 88 profitable w/o stacking villain every time.

all that said, this isnt the "perfect example." you did nothing special. no offense. villain ALSO needs a hand to go to war. if he 3bets AXs here, you arent getting a stack.

this isnt "technique." its positive variance.

[pankfish]

A sb's 3bet range against a button raise is usually a lot wider than his standard 3bet range. Still, I think pre-flop is a pretty standard call. He puts us on just as wide of a range as we put him on, he could easily stack off with tpgk.

[Pelion]

This villain has a tight enough range that calling just to set hunt is probably marginally correct. Add to that the fact that we will have position and might be able to take it away from him sometimes when he misses or an overcard falls to his pair and Its a pretty good call. There are quite a few villains at these stakes who will 3bet and then check/fold if they miss with AK or if an overcard comes with something like JJ so Id call this here.

Postflop is pretty much a cooler. I think you are getting his stack with almost any line you take. The point you make about AK missing doesn't really work though because if you put him on the range you did...

JJ/QQ wont stack off if an A or K comes. (12 combinations)
AK will stack off if an A or K comes (16 combinations)

So with the range you have given him we should prefer to just call the flop and stack AK if it comes, and JJ/QQ if it doesn't, than raise now and make AK fold. We also probably get another bet out of JJ or QQ if a K comes anyway.

Also if his range gets much wider then the sethunting call preflop becomes incorrect.

Thats not to say that I'm suggesting we should call the flop and raise the turn when we flop a set. Raising the flop is something we will do with a much wider range than sets. We'll do it with draws, we'll do it with overpairs, and we might even do it just because we think he's missed. So raising the flop probably looks weaker and is probably more likely to stack something like JJ.

[bigslikk]

I agree. What needs to be remembered is that this call is only marginally correct. The time the hand results in a glorious stacking only results 1/8 the time (if that), the other 7/8 you're giving away chips.

[Pelion]

I agree. What needs to be remembered is that this call is only marginally correct. The time the hand results in a glorious stacking only results 1/8 the time (if that), the other 7/8 you're giving away chips.

its actually closer to 1/16th if he wont stack off with an underpair/ missed AK

another 1/16 of the time we probably just take down a cbet