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Originally Posted by reDZill4
You are aware of this right, that AA (6) and AK (12) are potentially calling vs his KK (3), so you really only need him to call with AA/AK roughly 17% of the time to break even. If he calls more than 17% of the time with those hands you are PRINTING money.
Also if he is never calling with those hands you should be jamming this river with a very high frequency with any hand you somehow get into this spot with (should be few, JXs?) as 18 combos of AA/AK dwarf the 6 combos of KK/JJ.
Also, button is stabbing here with air next to 0% which means if hes betting you are likely going to stack him. If you bet you will still likely stack him, and you don't miss a street of value. The one downside is your perceived range will never have air in it, only semi-bluffs and value. That is still fine though as it is similar to buttons betting range here in the eyes of SB.
FWIW I think your turn call is okay.
I still think AK is discounted based on preflop, because of stacksizes, position, he will miss a lot and implied odds vs me (not much sure about this latest point - would be happy, if you correct this, if you disagree). But even if he can have it, its still problem on the turn. "Standard" play is bet something like 9-10 or so w/ AK, AA and he is underbetting. So he must have some good reason, why he didn't choose "standard" play and I don't see that reason - you do??
On the river - in my eyes your 2nd paragraph>your 1st paragraph. And this is beacuse I probably misplayed flop (see Micro2Macro post). (When I said my flop check was little bit autopilot = I was checking w/ intention not to build a pot, until I will have idea about what is going on. We weren't deep, so I could stack off them on later streets. I realized that SB is slowplaying probably in same second, when BTN was checking back flop). And then because SB lead only 1/4p, we have so much money behind, that I think there is only small chance (less than 17%) he will call my shove w/ just 1 pair (+ I still think these worse hands are discounted). If I lead flop, then it changes absolutely everything and its super happy stack off
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