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Weird Spot Rivered Set

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  1. #1

    Default Weird Spot Rivered Set

    Stacks:
    UTG Duque_copas ($173.99) 174bb
    CO socito ($102.86) 103bb
    BTN xjlking0271 ($111.93) 112bb
    SB wallliddd ($107.76) 108bb
    BB Hero ($113.24) 113bb

    Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB
    1 fold, socito raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $2

    Flop: ($6.50, 2 players)
    Hero checks, socito checks

    Turn: ($6.50, 2 players)
    Hero checks, socito bets $4, Hero calls $4

    River: ($14.50, 2 players)
    Hero checks, socito bets $9, Hero raises to $31, socito goes all-in $95.86, Hero folds

    does anyone think i can call here? 60% flop cbet
    [11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
  2. #2
    supa's Avatar
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    I think it's really close. Obv he cbets AK and probably K9 if it's there at all. Checks his sets and mebbe 98. If he delays QQ then he does KK/AA too?

    Does he have any combos he bluffs with here?
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  3. #3
    Stats on villain? what are your stats?

    3bet pre?

    It's a gross spot on the river. Villain knows you never have AK here, and probably never playing K9 like this. If you fold this, you have no calling range here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
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    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  4. #4
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    It's one of those spots where you could call with a frequency to avoid exploitation. Or occasionally flat AK pre.


  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    It's one of those spots where you could call with a frequency to avoid exploitation. Or occasionally flat AK pre.
    i was more concerned with is he ever exploiting me here. even if i did flat ak here there i likely lead the turn.
    [11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
  6. #6
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aka_red View Post
    i was more concerned with is he ever exploiting me here. even if i did flat ak here there i likely lead the turn.
    If he's good he could easily exploit you imo.


  7. #7
    Without any history or further reads other than this player is a typical regular I believe it is safe to assume that villain will value shove no worse than K9 in this spot.

    Now it's just a question of how often is he bluffing to determine whether you can profitably call.

    Combo wise I think it's practical to assign a 50% to weight AK/AKs/K9/K9s (10 combos) because I think we can expect these hands to also be cbetting the flop sometimes.

    Of course he could be on the level thinking 'theres no way he has AK his range is capped I jam', in which case

    If you have K9 in your range 100% by the river that's 16 combos, and TT is 3. If you only value raise these hands you're folding ~15% of your value range by tossing TT here. You can work out how many bluff combos you can get away with without this being exploitable. I think vs the average hsnl regular you may want to play spots like this where your range is really capped somewhat close to gto, but vs a typical ssnl regular who is likely playing too many tables and not actively gathering reads I find it hard to believe you are getting exploited b/fing in this spot.
  8. #8
    What's villains cbet %?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  9. #9
    I 3bet pre. Sometimes I'll fold the turn (is this bad?). On the river I fold. Good read if it's a bluff.
  10. #10
    I think folding the turn is bad. If anything I'm leading this turn, cause his check back on flop implies no Jx and I don't expect him to have too many Qx so I think my TT is good here. If I'm NOT betting this turn its specifically for him to bluff the Qx, therefore c/c.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  11. #11
    Here is what my friend (semi-pro for 8 years living royally off of poker) had to say -

    Preflop usually reraise. On the turn he says he'll sometimes fold. You know villain has high cards (he'd bet all smaller pairs on the flop) and he doesn't have the J so the Q is slamdunk in his range. On the river it is stupid to raise over the $9 bet, what worse hand would he call with? Pretty much nothing. A raise is acceptable if he had bet smaller on the river, but he already bet pretty hard. He'll only have AK the way it is played so easy fold.
  12. #12
    only AK beats you but it's likely he plays it this way. I'd fold it at 100nl.

    I think c/c the turn is the correct play as opposed to leading.

    River c/r is alright since he could hero call or have slowplayed a set on the flop, and you can also turn 77-88, Jx into bluffs sometimes.
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  13. #13
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    solcito had straight Ace high

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