weird spot aa otr

only relevant read is that villain is playing 8 tables

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($250)
UTG+1 ($172.40)
CO ($254.50)
BTN ($366.05)
SB ($275.50)
BB ($229.45)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $6 ($244.00), 4 folds, BB calls $4 ($223.45)

Flop: ($13, 2 players)
BB checks ($223.45), Hero bets $6 ($238.00), BB calls $6 ($217.45)

Turn: ($25, 2 players)
BB checks ($217.45), Hero bets $20 ($218.00), BB calls $20 ($197.45)

River: ($65, 2 players)
BB checks ($197.45), Hero bets $56 ($162.00), BB goes all-in $197.45 ($0.00), $141.45 to Hero ($162)?


we need 31% equity to call.

side note: if he has aces should he jam? whats your calling range here?

I'd snap. Can't actually pout more then like 2 combos of better in his range. He could easily do this with KQ and yeah, he should probably jam AA since it looks like he can have so few combos of made hands and a big bit of your range is shit like AK/KQ.

yea he should jams AA given he loses to 6 set combos but wins against KQ,AK + good for red line

He can def have KQ here so I call for sure.


Board: 2c 2d Ks Qs 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 36 0.00 { KK-QQ, KQs, KQo }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 54 0.00 { AA }

I'd snap muck this.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I'd snap muck this.

cool.

i forgot 1 combo of 22 as well my bad!

Originally Posted by Alexos

cool.

i forgot 1 combo of 22 as well my bad!

That's what he has.

Assuming he has my aces there are 1 22 1 A2s 3 KK 3 QQ these 8 always call vs 9 KQ 6 AK 1 AA, 16 that sometimes call. He'd have to be calling AA/AK always + 1.5 more combo to break even. If he has KQ, 2 A2s, 1 KK, 1 QQ, 1 22, these 5 are always calling. the 8 combos of AK always have to be calling and if he does always call with the 6 combos of AA you are short 3 combos of getting called to break even. This is assuming you aren't turning KQ into a bluff here and trying to get him to fold AA specifically. This is why I think calling with KQ is better than jamming. Not to mention this is a spot that is difficult to bluff in as he's bluffing into a more nutted range than his.

yea I wouldn't jam QK in his spot but idk if he's thinking like that. This whole hand is dependent on how he plays KQ here which is dependent on soul reads

Originally Posted by Alexos

yea I wouldn't jam QK in his spot but idk if he's thinking like that. This whole hand is dependent on how he plays KQ here which is dependent on soul reads

Yah +1 to this. If we're beat, I'd imagine it would be by QQ. If we assume the only 2 he has is A2s, then looking at the board and our hand the only real hand for that is A2hh.

Definitely depends if he can jam KQ here.

its interesting that people say call he can have KQ but when asked people say they wouldn't shove KQ here.

yea well with no reads i just assume random regs are avg at best which proves to be true more often than not

i dont see too many pockets in his range that he can turn into a bluff on the river with this line, given that he folds or ch-raises a lot of them on the turn
All comes down to wether or not he`ll ch-jam KQs here (which is like what 2 combos?)
I think its a fold w/o any reads (and even with reads, people are more tempted to call/fold for the most part, rather than make a big move vs a strong range/line)

Originally Posted by lancelott_

i dont see too many pockets in his range that he can turn into a bluff on the river with this line, given that he folds or ch-raises a lot of them on the turn
All comes down to wether or not he`ll ch-jam KQs here (which is like what 2 combos?)
I think its a fold w/o any reads (and even with reads, people are more tempted to call/fold for the most part, rather than make a big move vs a strong range/line)

this seems to be my conclusion as well. except for the fact that he could potentially turn all of his pp into a bluff (why would he be able to turn some into a bluff but not others?) in this spot he could even turn hands like Kx or Qx (Qx seems optimistic though) into a bluff.

Originally Posted by reDZill4

this seems to be my conclusion as well. except for the fact that he could potentially turn all of his pp into a bluff (why would he be able to turn some into a bluff but not others?) in this spot he could even turn hands like Kx or Qx (Qx seems optimistic though) into a bluff.

It's a terrible spot to turn anything into a bluff, just look at everyone saying snap it off.

i agree with you i was mostly referring to the flaw in his logic that he has few hands to turn into a bluff here. or that some of those hands can bluff and some cant.

close spot actually. not sure it matters too much what you do with this hand w/these stacks

I suppose if we were to construct a bluff catching range then this would be a pretty decent candidate, AsAh being top dog.

location is of some relevance

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I suppose if we were to construct a bluff catching range then this would be a pretty decent candidate, AsAh being top dog.

I would rather bluff catch without the As.

Seems some other potential bluffing combos for villain would otherwise be hands like ATss, AJss or something along those lines.

Seems like a pretty clear fold

He has dem queens, folding.