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the two rivers ZOOM

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  1. #1

    Default the two rivers ZOOM

    Button is 22/18/10 but can be a little clownish post flop. He bets when checked to a lot, fold to riv cbet 0/2. $136 left

    PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop

    Button ($219.20)
    SB ($120.34)
    Hero (BB) ($520.21)
    UTG ($229.20)
    MP ($200)
    CO ($200)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with K, J
    2 folds, CO bets $5, Button calls $5, 1 fold, Hero raises to $23, 1 fold, Button calls $18

    Flop: ($52) 9, 2, 10 (2 players)
    Hero bets $20, Button calls $20

    Turn: ($92) K (2 players)
    Hero bets $40, Button calls $40

    River: ($172) 7 (2 players)
    Hero

    Guy is 21/17/7.5 and pretty good. He's called or folded 34/37 flops when c-bet is raised, raises turn c-bet 20%, fold to river c-bet 2/8, Not really much history, just tight/solid. $144 left

    PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop

    Button ($200)
    SB ($200)
    Hero (BB) ($300.50)
    UTG ($244.34)
    MP ($191.50)
    CO ($204.55)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, A
    3 folds, Button bets $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

    Flop: ($9) J, 7, 5 (2 players)
    Hero checks, Button bets $6, Hero raises to $18, Button calls $12

    Turn: ($45) A (2 players)
    Hero bets $34, Button calls $34

    River: ($113) 8 (2 players)
    Hero
  2. #2
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Very tough spots to play optimally. Totally depends on history and your image.


  3. #3
    1st: Check-call
    2nd: 50-65$ in river
  4. #4
    I bet both but in practice vs. villains that I play against a lot, but you obviously have to balance the thin value by bluffing a lot in the same spots. If bluffing a ton on these type of runotus is not part of your gameplan, then You could argue both are a c/f.
  5. #5
    if you had to compare the two, 1 is more often gonna be a c/c than 2. I'd bet 2 close to 95% actually.
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  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Alexos View Post
    if you had to compare the two, 1 is more often gonna be a c/c than 2. I'd bet 2 close to 95% actually.
    What hands will people turn into a bluff in hand 1 or bet for value that we beat?
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ilikeaces86 View Post
    What hands will people turn into a bluff in hand 1 or bet for value that we beat?
    Well I was just comparing the two.

    In 2, I feel like he's gonna check back 90% of the time so we have to bet for value. A lot of bad flushes might call flop and just fold turn on this card, so that leaves his range more towards Jx imo. B/f seems good

    In 1, it just seems like it's really hard for him to call with worse at this point. I was being optimistic that he might have Tx, or a club combo in his range, but looking at preflop this seems unlikely. c/f > c/c
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  8. #8
    I bet $60 in hand 2 and he snap shoved
  9. #9
    I would definitely just call in the first hand, and then bet about 1/2 the pot or so in the 2nd. There are plenty of draws that missed on the second board
  10. #10
    Why the hell are you squeezing on hand 1?
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld View Post
    Why the hell are you squeezing on hand 1?
    I don't think you can call profitably pre seems completely reasonable.

    Hand 1 c/f, not that close. It's not that reasonable for him to hero call and you are beat a fair amount.

    Hand 2 bet close to pot, why do you think this is tough.
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  12. #12
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan View Post
    Hand 2 bet close to pot, why do you think this is tough.
    Correct river sizing and decision vs potential raise seems tough in this spot. Not a big fan of the flop c/r but it's pretty much whatever.


  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    Correct river sizing and decision vs potential raise seems tough in this spot. Not a big fan of the flop c/r but it's pretty much whatever.
    I'd immediately fold to a raise.

    I'm a big fan of the flop c/r personally, the EV of c/c and the EV of c/r are probably pretty close and this hand should have good equity against his range, gives us a hand to bluff when diamonds come, and has major deception. An ace and a five at any point on the turn and river is a good bluff card for opp and will give us good action.
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  14. #14
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Yeah I just feel like a c/r here is going to put an overweight in our range that could be exploited pretty easily. A c/c gives us a lot of opportunities later also imo.


  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    Yeah I just feel like a c/r here is going to put an overweight in our range that could be exploited pretty easily.
    Not quite sure what you mean
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  16. #16
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    Seems like we're going crazy pretty wide on this flop and our range can't handle a 3bet or even much turn action very well. Is it too much to ask that we at least have two hearts (or Ad but we fold A5o pre), since we're in really crappy shape vs sets, AA, AJ and AT?

    Feels like our best bet is to bluff turned diamonds, but even then we're drawing dead vs any range that decides to continue. Surely we can rep diamonds if we c/c as well.


  17. #17
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    i think checking the river in hand 1 is crazy
  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    i think checking the river in hand 1 is crazy
    crazy? he calls with worse >50% of the time?

    I think he has 99/TT,KQs pretty often. He has QJs, JJ, KJs, TJs, AJs less often (we block Jx + he prob won't call sq with all those). He could have AQ double float given our sizing but that's the only hand we'll c/c against and win, maybe also TJs if he decides to turn it into a bluff. At least he has all combos of AQ preflop (given fish in blinds).

    The looser he's calling 3bets with, the more Tx and crap he'll have, the more we'll want to c/c or shove. 22/18 doesn't seem like that guy to me, so sticking to c/f > c/c > shove
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  19. #19
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alexos View Post
    he calls with worse >50% of the time?
    Hero doesn't need to win 50% when called DUCY?

    Also, I think c/c is absolutely atrocious.


  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    Hero doesn't need to win 50% when called DUCY?
    50% equity is needed for in-a-vacuum profit when value betting on the river IP. OOP strategy has much more complicated characteristics.

    Here's the math behind how often we need to be good when called. First we need to consider our equity both when we shove and when we c/f:

    Equity(shove) = P(fold)*$172 - P(call+lose)*$154.2 + P(call+win)*$326.2

    Since P(call+lose) = 1-P(call+win)-P(fold):
    Equity(shove) = P(fold)*$326.2 + P(call+win)*$480.4 - $154.2

    Equity(c/f) = $172*P(sd-w)/[P(sd-l)+P(no-sd)]

    To calculate how often we need to win when called P(call+win) when we shove, we need to solve Equity(shove) = Equity(c/f):

    P(fold)*$326.2 + P(call+win)*$480.4 - $154.2 = $172*P(sd-w)/(P(sd-l)+P(no-sd))
    P(call+win)*$480.4 = $172*P(sd-w)/(P(sd-l)+P(no-sd)) - P(fold)*$326.2 + $154.2

    Finally:
    P(call+win) = [$172*P(sd-w)/(P(sd-l)+P(no-sd)) - P(fold)*$326.2 + $154.2]/$480.4

    As you can see, the frequency of how often we need to win a showdown with a shove
    depends greatly on what happens if we c/f. Now let's consider the hypothetical
    situation that hero will never c/c and villain is aware of that (always
    shoves), we can simplify: P(sd-w)=0, P(sd-l)=0 and P(no-sd)=1:

    P(call+win) = [$154.2 - P(fold)*$326.2]/$480.4

    Now the required frequency only depends on how often villain folds to our shove.

    Interesting is when P(call+win) = 0 and our shove is equivalent to a pure bluff:

    P(fold) = $154.2/$326.2 = 47.3%

    So if villain folds to our shove more than 47.3% and we never win when we check, then shoving is better than checking, even if we NEVER win a showdown when villain calls our shove.

    Another point to consider is that shoving likely benefits our overall gameplan more than checkfolding.
    Last edited by pocketfours; 01-17-2013 at 02:44 PM.


  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    50% equity is needed for in-a-vacuum profit when value betting on the river IP. OOP strategy has much more complicated characteristics.

    Here's the math behind how often we need to be good when called. First we need to consider our equity both when we shove and when we c/f:

    Equity(shove) = P(fold)*$172 - P(call+lose)*$154.2 + P(call+win)*$326.2

    Since P(call+lose) = 1-P(call+win)-P(fold):
    Equity(shove) = P(fold)*$326.2 + P(call+win)*$480.4 - $154.2

    Equity(c/f) = $172*P(sd-w)/[P(sd-l)+P(no-sd)]

    To calculate how often we need to win when called P(call+win) when we shove, we need to solve Equity(shove) = Equity(c/f):

    P(fold)*$326.2 + P(call+win)*$480.4 - $154.2 = $172*P(sd-w)/(P(sd-l)+P(no-sd))
    P(call+win)*$480.4 = $172*P(sd-w)/(P(sd-l)+P(no-sd)) - P(fold)*$326.2 + $154.2

    Finally:
    P(call+win) = [$172*P(sd-w)/(P(sd-l)+P(no-sd)) - P(fold)*$326.2 + $154.2]/$480.4

    As you can see, the frequency of how often we need to win a showdown with a shove
    depends greatly on what happens if we c/f. Now let's consider the hypothetical
    situation that hero will never c/c and villain is aware of that (always
    shoves), we can simplify: P(sd-w)=0, P(sd-l)=0 and P(no-sd)=1:

    P(call+win) = [$154.2 - P(fold)*$326.2]/$480.4

    Now the required frequency only depends on how often villain folds to our shove.

    Interesting is when P(call+win) = 0 and our shove is equivalent to a pure bluff:

    P(fold) = $154.2/$326.2 = 47.3%

    So if villain folds to our shove more than 47.3% and we never win when we check, then shoving is better than checking, even if we NEVER win a showdown when villain calls our shove.

    Another point to consider is that shoving likely benefits our overall gameplan more than checkfolding.
    Somehow in my years of playing and doing tons of Math, I've never done this particular calculation.

    Thanks for posting. I have to look at this more.
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  22. #22
    gabe's Avatar
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    great post p4s. i was reviewing it so i could add some qualitative thoughts and i dont know how you got some of the numbers


    Equity(shove) = P(fold)*$172 - P(call+lose)*$154.2 + P(call+win)*$326.2

    there is 136 behind, so shouldnt it be:

    = P(fold)*$172 - P(call+lose)*$136 + P(call+win)*$(172+136)

    this would change your last equation to
    P(fold) = $136/$308 = 44%

    which makes it even easier shove. did i overlook something
  23. #23
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Yeah that's right. I counted 219.20 - 40 - 20 - 5 remaining, when it should be 219.2 - 40 - 20 - 23.


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