TP weak kicker in 3 bet pot

Small sample on villain.. only about 100 hands. But I have him at 26/22 and stealing at 44%. No out of the ordinary history yet.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($198.15)
Button ($122.05)
Hero (SB) ($100)
BB ($100)
UTG ($127.40)
MP ($101.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, 6
3 folds, Button bets $3, Hero raises $10.50, 1 fold, Button calls $8

Flop: ($23) 2, K, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $12.50, Button calls $12.50

Turn: ($48) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($48) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $27, Button raises $98.55 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $102


standard fold?

id bet the turn always in games i play but checking seems ok here. having checked the turn i would also check the river as you cant really expect any reg to put you on a bluff. getting raised is very very rare and weird but id still fold

edit: i actually might call this one. you dont see a lot of desperation bluffs in spots like this but itd be really fucking retarded of him to check the turn with KQ or 88, and then decide to valueship over your river bet when QQ is one of your most likely hands. You should especially consider calling if you think he thinks you would valuebet AQ here.

It's only 49 more to call since he covers. I wouldn't expect him to bluff since you seem pretty committed. But as nutsinho said, it looks like a pretty clear turn bet with anything that beats you so I don't see much reason to b/f.

This could be something ridiculous like Q8s though.

You guys don't see villain playing QQ like this? That seems like his most likely value hand to me. If he chose not to 4b pre this is exactly how I would expect him to play it post.

Originally Posted by Parasurama

You guys don't see villain playing QQ like this? That seems like his most likely value hand to me. If he chose not to 4b pre this is exactly how I would expect him to play it post.

I don't really see why a very loose player would want to flat QQ pre. Makes sense postflop though.

^^

i think he just has kq tbh

Originally Posted by Renton

i think he just has kq tbh

KQ is my confident guess, although it would not be the first time a similar villan flats QQ pre. Either way i dont see any air here tbh.

yea im sure its just a fold actually. but a pretty gay one

His steal is 44%, but his raise 1st in % OTB is what ?? That's more important dude. It's also important to know what's his 4b %?

So much about this hand is screwed. Your flop bet sizing is pretty bad IMO. I would normally tend to check this flop given the fact that if I were 3betting this hand in this spot, it would be because I expect my opponent's continuing range to be very tight in which case I am dominated a decent amount here. I'd only bet the flop this size if I was looking to go B/B/shove, which would probably just be burning money here.

If you want to c-bet it should be bigger like 2/3 - 3/4 pot because you shouldn't be looking to get 3 streets of value out of anything--might as well get more value on this street w/ this bet since his calling range to your flop bet is going to be inelastic.

Also, like nutsinho said, if you check turn you really should be checking the river. The check is in order to induce from floats right? So you need to follow through and let him bet his floats or VB a worse hand on the river.

River is super easy clear fold for 100nl. This is like never a bluff.

unfortunately I didn't have enough hands for any meaningful stats on 4 bets ect. My logic on the flop is that I will be betting this flop with all my air and I expect to be floated here by any 8 and 99+.

as for sizing, I'm betting all my value hands and bluffs the same size. This is a relatively dry flop so I don't really understand why a bigger bet would be better. I can obv get the money in comfortably with all my value hands by the river.

the thing that makes me want to call is I'm kinda toward the top of my range here when I take this line... But as said before, at 100nl this is verrry rarely a bluff. I do agree that river check would be best. Sound logic?

Maybe I'm thinking too simplistic, but about the river check vs bet after:

- Aren't floats generally just betting the turn? (at 100NL)
- I don't see any worse hands valuebetting the river besides AQ maybe.
- I don't think the Q is that bad of a bluffing card as imo villains range has a lot of JJ- 1 pair hands and when I had air here I would question betting.
- Because of the above I see reasons for b/fing moreso then c/cing.

I think things change a lot if we expect villain to not raise a FD and check it back on the turn fearing the c/r, and/or delays his floats for
the same reason. But I'm not sure I should give a player at 100NL with no reads that much respect.

When I'm thinking about it, would someone share his turn c/ring range?