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TP on the river

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  1. #1
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    Default TP on the river

    Villain is a TAGish player, very positionally aware. Has a fairly high steal %. Preflop I thought he was making a play at me as I'd 3b in the same spot twice in the same session. His range is still fairly tight which is why I checked flop to see how he reacts. River was a weak bet hoping to induce a bluff. I can't see any straight in his range. I think I'm either looking at AJ/AQ/AK/JJ/QQ/KK/TT. I don't think he has air ever here which would make my hand equity about 65% and a call correct right?

    PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4


    BTN: 77.96 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
    SB: 136.44 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 30)
    Hero (BB): 116.36 BB
    UTG: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 22)
    MP: 76.42 BB (VPIP: 23.61, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 74)
    CO: 244.84 BB (VPIP: 19.85, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 140)


    SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB


    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q


    fold, fold, CO raises to 2.52 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, CO raises to 16 BB, Hero calls 9 BB


    Flop: (32.5 BB, 2 players) 2 A T
    Hero checks, CO checks


    Turn: (32.5 BB, 2 players) 4
    Hero bets 15.52 BB, CO calls 15.52 BB


    River: (63.54 BB, 2 players) 3
    Hero bets 28 BB, CO raises to 213.32 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 56.84 BB and is all-in
  2. #2
    Renton's Avatar
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    3-bet from 2.5 to 7 BB vs CO is a little too small. People typically 3-bet to about 8-10bb there.

    The turn bet seems standard, and while I don't mind your river size, I don't think its a good plan to induce a raise here. People just don't bluff with this line. If he thinks you're bluffing enough, he'll either call with KK or fold it, I don't think he will bluff all in with it. I think I would probably bet a bit bigger and fold to the raise, putting him on A5/AA/TT/AT pretty often. He could potentially play AK this way as well, so I actually think your river bet is thinner than it looks. You're mainly trying to get called by KK-JJ AJ, A9-A6, many of which wouldn't 4-bet pre.
    Last edited by Renton; 03-09-2015 at 11:08 AM.
  3. #3
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    I should mention my stats for this session were 26/24, 3b pre 11 and 4b 7. I was trying out a few plays against some regs I've gotten a good hand sample size on and had a nice run of cards at one stage too which I think helped to give me an image I was trying to exploit here.

    As unlikely as a straight is here, is it not a good bluff card for a semi-thinking player?
  4. #4
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    I don't think the river is a very good card to bluff on as it doesn't affect ranges very much at all. I really hate the call pre.


  5. #5
    Renton's Avatar
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    p4s what is he supposed to do facing a 9bb 4-bet with these stacks? I think shoving would be quite bad and its definitely not a fold for those odds.
  6. #6
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    16bb 4bet and we're oop against nit with AQo slightly deep sure looks like a fold to me without very significant skill gap


  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    16bb 4bet and we're oop against nit with AQo slightly deep sure looks like a fold to me without very significant skill gap
    Even if I think he's making a play at me?

    For what it's worth, I did win the hand, but I'm wanting to make sure I made the right play with what I thought was a read of the situation
  8. #8
    Renton's Avatar
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    Actually I didn't see how tight his stats were. I still think preflop is likely a call for those odds but its definitely closer given how nitty he looks.
  9. #9
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by renegaderob1 View Post
    Even if I think he's making a play at me?

    For what it's worth, I did win the hand, but I'm wanting to make sure I made the right play with what I thought was a read of the situation
    If you think he's making a play then just 5bet pre. You have a nice hand for that play.

    Also please don't reveal results.


  10. #10
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    Ok sorry.

    5b pre to 40bbish? What's the plan if he shoves?
  11. #11
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by renegaderob1 View Post
    Ok sorry.

    5b pre to 40bbish? What's the plan if he shoves?
    Well then he probably isn't making a play is he? I'd make it 34 and fold. With 100bb stacks just shove.


  12. #12
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    I like how the hand was played. I think the decision to call pre or not, really depends on your overall game plan and what other hands you are also choosing to 3b/call 4b OOP with.

    As for the river, I think he gets there with a fair number of marginal hands that didn't want to cb flop (TT-KK, and maybe even some bad Ax). River feels like a spazz "I'm going to jam and rep AAA here, cause I'd play AAA the same way" type spot, and we obv block that hand. He's repping 1 value combo and maybe 2 at most (if we include some 5x being possible), with a possible 24 bluff combos. Seems like an easy call to me, even if he's only turning those into bluffs a small fraction of the time.
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  13. #13
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    I dont really have an overall gameplan for when I call 4b OOP tbh. I mostly play those depending on my opponent as for the most part if I get to 4b I'm pushing or folding my bluff. One of the reasons I chose this hand to post/review because it's a unique spot for me. Thanks for the feedback!

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