Tough river spot oop 3-bet pot

Villain seems decent, he's a reg running at 24/18/6.5 and he calls a ton of 3-bets, 45%. We had tangled a couple times this session but neither of us got to showdown versus the other. This is the first time i've felt so lost on a river in a while - I felt like I could shove for value, bet/fold smallish, bet/call, c/call or c/fold. What do we think here?


No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (3 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($102)
Button ($695.80)
Hero (SB) ($564)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J
Button bets $10, Hero raises $33, 1 fold, Button calls $25

Flop: ($74) 7, 8, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $46, Button calls $46

Turn: ($166) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $111, Button calls $111

River: ($388) J (2 players)
Hero has a Pot-sized bet left.

I would c/f. Definitely not c/c or b/c.

yea c/f. the part of his range that's ahead of you looks like 77/8x/AQ. you are ahead of 99/TT/7x and maybe 66. i expect he is checking behind those worse hands and not turning them into a bluff. there are too many credible hands you could value shove the river with on this card so i think he often folds those worse hands

wat duz he has goddammit

edit : this seems like one of those rare spots in these games (this specific opponent in this specific type of spot) where you might wanna give in-depth thought to making your range v tough to exploit and annoying to play against... which makes me lean towards a river shove as a value-bluff

edit 2 : the reasoning being that we want to threaten him with horrendously tough spots for 150bb's, thereby discouraging him from flatting a very wide range in pos. if we can get him to tighten up his preflop calling range (which he's likely to do by 4-betting more rather than looking to exploit us postflop, thereby making our lives easier OOP), then it seems to me that we'll get owned a lot less vs this guy.

I am definitely most afraid of AQ in this spot, though someone calling so many 3bets is def wider than that.

Though someone calling more 3bets also has more 8x/77 than the avg person would.

I'd c/f. Just don't think you're getting called by worse that often on this runout. If I bet, I'd prob bet some super small amount.

shoving here would be a ridiculous merge. C/F seems by far the best play

nuts you think KQ would be a more reasonable hand to merge with? AQ?

Yeah I definitely like value/bluff shoving over c/calling. C/fold is probably best in a vacuum. I should also note that the player pool i'm playing against people in general are just way more stationny than my experience on most other sites so I can conceive of being looked up by 99-10s here more than usual but i'm also less often folding out a queen.

c/f, absolutely.

if we were villain in this hand and held KK, i wonder what the responses would be on this riv?

how about AQ?

Originally Posted by Genitruc

if we were villain in this hand and held KK, i wonder what the responses would be on this riv?

how about AQ?

What is hero's image/3bet %?

I probably wouldn't get to river with KK too often with this line, but I'd def be snapping it given the run off.

Would also be snapping AQ likely, and if they beat me so beit. If I'm calling pre and calling flop with AQ its to keep in worse, so not folding now.

I'd still c/f AQ, but it's close, and shove KK. I'd shove AQ if i was playing so aggro that it was likely villain would hero call you.

C/F AQ wtf?

maybe i m just crazy for thinking AJ and AQ are similar here... maybe i underestimate how many AQ/KQ type hands would float us in pos here.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

maybe i m just crazy for thinking AJ and AQ are similar here... maybe i underestimate how many AQ/KQ type hands would float us in pos here.

Maybe my perspective is biased for me being a station. But if I'm calling AQ pre (instead of 4bet/ calling it off) it's to keep in worse hands. If that's the case, I'm probably always peeling this particular flop. That's a decent number of hand combos in itself, let alone KQ floats.

cf

first thought was that I'm not overly thrilled with how we manipulated the pot size to get to the river with ~1PSB. i'm not affirmatively saying we did anything wrong, but it will put us in lots of tricky spots.

seems like a clear cf, there are lots of better hands we can value bet on this board to mix with some bluffs. we have decent showdown value if it checks through.

i will say though, i've 3-barreled AK in spots like this and gotten looked up by 99/JThh type hands so many times that i wouldn't completely discount jamming. dynamics would of course have to be right though and based on OP they probably aren't even close.

That is one scary spot. WHAT IN THE WORLD DOES HE HAVE?!! C/F, as evertybody here has already pointed out. Results?

i checked, he shoved and i folded.