Something I've been thinking about..

About a year ago, I was messing round with some equity calculations and stumbled across something that might be significant (Or I might have got this completely wrong) anyway:

A hypothetical scenario to illustrate the concept.

You're playing in a 5/10 game, you're in the BB with 45o, it folds round to the SB who is a player you have a perfect read on, you know his tendencies down to the exact combinatorics. He limps, you know he only does this with 9 10 and AK, he either raises of folds every other hand.

the Flop comes 678r and he bets 10 into 10, now you know his exact frequencies here, and that he will bet 9 10 100% of the time and AK X% of the time, which gives you exactly 35% equity against his range (X being whatever % gives you 35% against his overall range).....which is higher than the 33% you need to make a profitable call, so, you call.

The turn comes, it doesn't matter what it is, for the sake of completing the hand, it's a blank 2. Again, he bets pot (30 into 30), his frequencies haven't changed at all (if he bets the flop, he bets the turn and river 100% of the time) so, getting the correct price again, you call.

The river comes, again, it's irrelevant what it is (6s) he bets pot again (90 into 90), you, with 35% equity against his range, call.

I've come to the conclusion that folding the flop (clearly not the best decision from an EV perspective..or is it?) is going to be more profitable than calling 3 streets here. (Maybe my maths is wrong somewhere, and this scenario will never happen but I think is a good example to try to illustrate the concept. However it can (if true) be applied to any other hand)