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So when they take weird lines it's for value right?

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  1. #1

    Default So when they take weird lines it's for value right?

    Villain seems like a standard reg and is folding to 80% of 3-bets. I've been 3-betting smallish IP recently as people love to auto 4-bet way too light IMO. This way they tend to flat and not play so well post flop. This line is pretty wtf. I mean this is a baord I probably barrel a fair bit and am perceived to still be value betting a good bit of Qx and better on the river. Problem is I just can't see how he can possibly have air here.

    PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    CO: 130.18 BB (VPIP: 22.79, PFR: 18.38, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 138)
    Hero (BTN): 127.86 BB
    SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 27.16, PFR: 20.86, 3Bet Preflop: 10.14, Hands: 573)
    BB: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 25.64, PFR: 20.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 80)
    UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.91, PFR: 18.60, 3Bet Preflop: 8.81, Hands: 377)
    MP: 106.07 BB (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 38)

    SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q J

    fold, fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 7.2 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 4.7 BB

    Flop: (15.9 BB, 2 players) 9 6 9
    CO checks, Hero bets 9 BB, CO calls 9 BB

    Turn: (33.9 BB, 2 players) Q
    CO checks, Hero bets 19 BB, CO calls 19 BB

    River: (71.9 BB, 2 players) 3
    CO bets 94.98 BB and is all-in, Hero? (91ish to hero)
  2. #2
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    lol if he's bluffing. I need to take this line more


  3. #3
    if he never bluffs with this line you fold

    you have 40% equity vs 99,66,98s,87s which means you call

    if he goes all tricky weird and plays AQ like this you have 22% and muck

    dis one of dem spots where knowing your own range is keyyyy cuz we dont have a clue really of his.... in practice no one used to bluff like this though ive def seen it (moreso at msnl). id just muck w/o much thought in game because his 80% fold to 3bet indicates he can have very few bluffs here especially after c/c this flop. this is a really ballsy line to be bluffing with given the board and it doesn't really fit the player profile.
    Last edited by Micro2Macro; 09-16-2013 at 07:27 AM.
  4. #4
    Yup I also highly doubt anyone with his stats/profile bluffs here. Do you think it would be bad to fold hella exploitably here like KK and worse or something?
  5. #5
    in theory yeah but his value range is going to be like 9x+ with this line and conceivably has little to no bluffs.

    against anyone I had reason to believe is semi decent and capable of shit I'm never folding.
  6. #6
    Renton's Avatar
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    clearly a fold and I tend to check flop with this hand specifically since you have two broadway cards that aren't Ax or Kx, and thus can win, legitimately or otherwise, when any of those 14 cards roll off.

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