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River bet sizing ok here?

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  1. #1

    Question River bet sizing ok here?

    Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

    NL Holdem $1(BB)
    HERO ($109.17)
    BTN ($17)
    SB ($99.4)
    BB ($100)
    UTG ($338.03)
    HJ ($121.88)

    Dealt to Hero K 8

    UTG Raises To $3 (Rem. Stack: 335.03), HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $10.5 (Rem. Stack: 98.67), BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $7.5 (Rem. Stack: 327.53)

    Flop ($22.5) 6 9 8
    UTG Checks, HERO Checks

    Turn ($22.5) 6 9 8 2
    UTG Bets $15 (Rem. Stack: 312.53), HERO Calls $15 (Rem. Stack: 83.67)

    River ($52.5) 6 9 8 2 K
    UTG Checks, HERO Bets $30.25 (Rem. Stack: 53.42), UTG Calls $30.25 (Rem. Stack: 282.28)

    UTG shows 9 9

    UTG wins $109
    Opponent is 35/29/7.7 3-bet/ 35% AGG 155 hands
  2. #2
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    St Louis, MO
    It's not clear, since no comments about Villain's ranges are in OP. We can infer some things about his pre-flop play from the stats you posted, but those don't give any direct insight into your river decision.

    What is Villain's range on each of his decision points?
    (Really, you only asked about your river bet sizing, so most of this is not directly relevant, but you'll be well-served to ask yourself this question and answer it with your best guesses every time you analyze a hand.)

    What are his 3 ranges to fold/call/raise your river bet?

    What is the EV of your river bet as played?

    If you change your river bet sizing, does it affect your guess for Villain's ranges to fold/call/raise your bet?
    How so?

    Can you manipulate your bet size such that Villain manipulates his ranges such that you increase the EV of your river bet?
    If so, there's your answer.
  3. #3
    Pre flop is too loose. This is an ok hand to be 3b bluffing but against UTG, I think we're asking for trouble. I think you need to show more respect to UTG raises.

    As played, well we see a flop, and it's ok. I'd check back, value is super thin. I suppose I'm calling the turn after flop checks through, hardly thrilled though. River, well it's as good a river we can hope for. I do think we have to bet, because he certainly can play AK like this, in fact I think he looks like AK, while hands that beat us must have slow played, so there's value. I think sizing is good.

    But I'd say this is a clear fold pre flop, unless you've got a tight image and you're going to get respect for this 3bet, in which case it's an ok hand to break a run of folds.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 03-31-2017 at 07:33 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #4
    I see... thanks for your thoughts mojo and ongbonga

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