QQ UTG vs 3 bet from semi-nit

Villain is 20/14 with a 2% 3-bet over ~100 hands.

My standard is usually to flat here, but folding did cross my mind mind for more than a second. Feel like he's pretty much strictly for value here so vs QQ+ AK it's meh and there are defo reverse implied odds on low boards, although we can probably take lines like flat c-bet and fold to turn bets etc. I hate 4-betting here since our equity's never more than 40% and could be worse.

I call the flop pretty standard imo. Although this flop is pretty awesome for us, we just don't get it in in good shape vs his range.

On the turn I'm torn as to whether or not I want to bet. If we bet and get jammed we have a call if we can give him some combos of AK with a diamond. I don't like b/f the turn, so the other alternative is to check back and assess the river. We gain more info this way, likely can't bet the turn for value and there really aren't many rivers we don't want to see.

Check turn?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($34.15)
Hero (UTG) ($50)
MP ($63.75)
CO ($81.45)
Button ($50)
SB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
Hero bets $1.50, 3 folds, SB raises $5.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($11.50) 3, 4, 6 (2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($21.50) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero? (39.50)

if you think his c/shove or his c/c range has AdK and AKd or even JJd then i like bet/call shove turn.
if you think he c/c only AAd, KKd and folds rest, then check back and see river IP.

Yep, I don't expect to see JJ very often here at all due to his 3-bet stats and my UTG open.

Not sure what sort of frequencies I expect to see AdKx AxKd here compared with AA, KK but I feel AA or KK without a diamond is going to bet this turn almost always. Wondering what others think on this. Even if he can have AdKx etc sometimes, it's not like we have awesome equity to b/c if he also has AdAx and KdKx with similar frequencies.

we have 31% equity on turn vs KK+ and diamond AK so a bet/call shove vs this range is + EV.


but it all depends on what he just calls and what he shoves.

if he folds to a 2/3 bet all AK and calls non diamond KK+ and shoves diamond AA,KK then a 2/3bet/fold is also +EV due to fold equity, but if he folds just non diamond AK then we better check.

even if we check i find this tricky, cause what do you do on diamond river? you said he bets non diamond KK+ so that leaves him check diamond KK+ on turn and when a diamond hits on river, after this logic we have to fold cause we are beat. also we have to fold any A/K river.


i prefer a bet/call shove, it's -EV play only if his shoving range is diamond KK+. if he c/c non diamond KK+, diamond AK then we have 46% equity so a 2/3 turn bet is + EV.

i think most hands including Ad in this spot cbet way bigger than this trying to apply as much pressure with NFD and either trying to get it in on flop or having FE.

turn is likely you're ahead since i can't really see KK/AA checking this ever esp without a diamond, seems he either has very little or wants a cheap showdown.

anybody like an under-half-pot-bet here on turn?

i'd b/c here i'd expect most big hands to just go ahead and bet here and he probably c/ships all worse with fd's