Paradox spot

Villain is 23/18/3. He raises flops really light, stat says 22%. Not sure of his ranges though. Seems decent.

Reason I'm posting is because I think the turn/river is really weird. He not really repping anything but at the same time he can't expect me to fold hardly ever.

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($227.20)
BB ($385.45)
UTG ($200)
Hero (MP) ($242.40)
Button ($200)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $7, Button calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) 8, 2, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $14, Button raises $40, Hero calls $26

Turn: ($97) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $56, Hero calls $56

River: ($209) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $97 (All-In),

What's wrong with him just having a T or 22, 88 here? QQ+, J checks back always, right?

If he's raising cbets < 20% he could easily have tpgk or pretty much any draw... Tx being the most likely with the turn bet sizing imo.

Idk if that's optimal, but I'd prefer to ship it on the flop when I'm oop. Even with a tight vpip/pfr ratio I think he could have a pretty wide range btn vs co with such a low 3b, and especially when there's fish in the blinds... so you're allowing all his draws to go to the river for free, and he can pot control with JJ, Tx.
In position I like a call a lot more because I really don't think he continues after a flop 3b all that much, but he might barrel.

As played I'd be looking for a bet sizing note that he ever bluffed for half the pot to call the turn.

i don't think shipping on the flop is a good line at all, i think he has a ton of air in his range so i think just calling and calling down is much better. and while he raising a ton of the time, i wouldn't expect him to be raising tx, i'd expect it'd to lots of air/overcards/weak draws and sets sometimes i guess.

Now that I think of it (or read it) shipping flop with all sorts of stuff is good for exploiting his flop raising range, and QQ can definitely fit into our 3b shipping range on this board. It's vulnerable, but probably good vs. his calling range. It might not be optimal for this hand, but good as part of an overall strategy?

If we're bet/calling the flop then we're only folding here when a T, K or A comes out, right? Maybe not even the k...

20% raise sounds like he's raising sets/monsters and draws and maybe flops that should have missed both. That turn bet looks weak, since calling the flop raise your probably not folding a weak turn bet. I don't think he raises a T on the flop so I doubt the turn T helps him. C/C on the turn make him think his J9 or QJ just made the best hand. I call

I'm probably bluff 3betting this flop a fair bit, so I'd prob 3bet this for value.

Are you 3 bet /folding this flop Griffey? I would think his stacking off range here is sets/2 pair (8Ts maybe) only. What about if we get called? Lead Turn on blank? I would think his calling range is more towards draws.

Originally Posted by Dragon Slayer

Are you 3 bet /folding this flop Griffey?

I would never 3bet/fold... thats just turning QQ into a bluff. I'd 3bet small small though and hope he either floats IP with some nonsense or jams over with an OESD or something.

Fold the turn for sure I may even fold the flop. He's sucking you in on the turn cause he doesn't need to bet big to jam river. The turn is a terrible card to continue bluffing on. The important part of your reads are he can't expect you to fold!! So why would he bluff...

Originally Posted by griffey24

Originally Posted by Dragon Slayer

Are you 3 bet /folding this flop Griffey?

I would never 3bet/fold... thats just turning QQ into a bluff. I'd 3bet small small though and hope he either floats IP with some nonsense or jams over with an OESD or something.

I think that's kinda borderline even with your image.

maybe 3bing works at 5/10 but certainly not at 1/2 where it's like lol I cannot has set I can't felt flop

I think 3 betting here with lots of made hands is a mistake so I'd definitely call, if you want to 3bet bluff with air because you think hes a pussy thats fine by me.

As played idk its just really difficult because id never call even call turn versus anyone who doesnt raise flops light. I'd prob just fold river and call turn like you did but i really dont know what to do here.

id play the same, and c/jam any good turn. As it turns out the T is the worst card in the deck since he won't continue with many bluffs since a)you're only 100bb deep and b)you have a bunch of Tx in your range

id fold turn

I obv don't mind calling OOP here and re-eval/c/bomb turn like alex says, if he's gonna have tons of air here etc.

I just feel like the type of person raising a ton of flops is also the type that will be raising a lot of top pairs/mid pairs type stuff and also a lot of draws. Just feel like if we raise small here he will call a lot of these hands IP since we're repping such a narrow range.

This is fully image dependent I suppose though.

i shove this a lot w stuff like QJ turning it into a bluff if i think the villain is capable of folding. if his sickness level is bigger than say 4 out of 10 then i d call but i think you see 79 and Q9 some % of the time

prob a fold vs the nameless soulless villain described

Originally Posted by griffey24

I'm probably bluff 3betting this flop a fair bit, so I'd prob 3bet this for value.

Even if you do have some kind of dynamic at the table, don't you think the players who are wussy and can't/won't hand read aren't exploiting you at all so basically 3betting QQhere is always a "bluff"? I mean you fold his air out and any 10 he raised or 99. I don't like 3betting for that reason, mostly because I think his flop raising range is semibluffs, A10, sets, and occasional overs-only but the dry board makes it less likely.


OP:

How many hands do you have on him?
That turn is really bad if he's barreling it. Ya repping thin, but the 10 is more likely in his value range than say the 8 pairing narrows his value slightly.

anyway, regardless if whether he raises flop or not, you have to decide whether he would play QJ,j9 or other semibluffing hands this way down to the river. a lot of people that raise flop light will not follow through on a lot of turn cards, and board pair is especially one of them.

If this is a bluff, its one I do not commonly see on such a dry board that had a turn board pairing. I fold turn

pretty sure you should fold the turn here.

Also i really think that 3betting the flop is good.

Don't really see a paradox. He has a good hand and he's betting it.