NL Euro 100 - Turn showdown hand into bluff on the river IP?

Hi Guys.
This hand is an easy check back or shove imo. Hope your responenses clearify my pov.
Prima No-Limit Hold'em, €100 BB (5 handed) - Prima Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

Hero (MP) (€112.20)
Button (€86.50)
SB (€100.50) stats: http://scr.hu/0raf/877fx
BB (€127.30)
UTG (€170.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8, 7
1 fold, Hero raises €3, 1 fold, SB calls €2.50, 1 fold

Flop: (€7) 5, 7, 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets €6, SB calls €6

Turn: (€19) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets €12, SB raises €31.50, Hero calls €19.50

River: (€82) A (2 players)
SB checks

Preflop
Std open from CO imo, BTN is 3b 18.6(19) so if 3b either 3 way or HU my plan is to call IP polarized.

Flop
I get HU vs. SB who seems loose agressive, I think his range on OTF is something like: JJ-22,ATs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo. So my plan is to double barrel flop and any turn and check back river if we get to the river, as I don't think think any better will fold and any worse will fold.

Turn
According to my plan I bet again, but now I get c/r pretty small. I think Villans small c/r implies at best TP or FD, OESD and Gut shots. So I plan to call and shove the river if V. checks, because I think V. is giving up like 90% = c/f OTR if checked to and if he c/f second pair or worse my shove is +EV imo. So I think I should def. shove any river if checked to.

Thoughs?

thx.

Check back flop, as played check back turn, as played b/f turn, as played ck back river.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Check back flop, as played check back turn, as played b/f turn, as played ck back river.

Should I not be protecting my Equity by betting the flop and also by a bet avoiding Villan in realise his ex. if he has flushdraw or overcards?

How about bet flop, bet turn and check back river if checked to?(if I don't improve)

Thx

I don't hate the turn call tbh. But I'd also check flop and check river as played.

Originally Posted by Capua

Should I not be protecting my Equity by betting the flop and also by a bet avoiding Villan in realise his ex. if he has flushdraw or overcards?



Thx

I just think that you can't protect your equity vs these hands. He's not folding anything better and he can raise a ton here with draws, bluffs or even overs if he thinks we could fold, which could have us folding our equity. Checking the flop will weaken his continuing range to a bet on the turn against draws and overs. I also check the river because he's never calling with worse.

Originally Posted by jyms

I just think that you can't protect your equity vs these hands. He's not folding anything better and he can raise a ton here with draws, bluffs or even overs if he thinks we could fold, which could have us folding our equity. Checking the flop will weaken his continuing range to a bet on the turn against draws and overs. I also check the river because he's never calling with worse.

Okay I get you point for checking back the flop, we check to realise our Equity = get to showdown a often as possible?, because or hand can't really stand a c/r OTF and better OTT maybe we should bet the some turns, because it gives us the oppotunity to bluff the river.
I agree that he's nver calling the river with worse, but that's my point, I did a crEV-sim to let him c/f, all his hands that were TP OTT, but now fold like 90% of the time OTR, it showed me it was a +EV river shove, if this assumption is coorect fwiw.

Thx.

I don't hate a flop cbet, but I would still check back the turn after I cb flop unless I knew villain was very passive and wouldn't blow me off my hand.

OP says he's HU vs a loose aggro. I don't see a loose aggro giving us 2 streets of betting and Check calling, so ya I agree if I bet the flop I am checking back the turn. I just think we are only getting one street of value off of a loose aggro.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Check back flop, as played check back turn, as played b/f turn, as played ck back river.

This.

Shoving river is the worst though, definitely no point in doing that except for getting called by like 66 or something.

I think the idea that the turn c/r from our opponent includes some wide range that includes all types of different hands is insane and foolish.

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

I think the idea that the turn c/r from our opponent includes some wide range that includes all types of different hands is insane and foolish.

Sure, but if we decide to bet with this cazy blocker then not folding to a raise isn't totall mad imo.

I think flop should be bet...Though it seems like people tend to side all over the place with this, so maybe the EV of betting and checking is actually very close. I guess the most important thing to consider then is whatever we do (bet or check) we need to be sure how this affects our ranges on later streets.

I don't think having this hand in our check back range is going to fare well for bluff catching, and we block 77 and fold out QJ+ (though probably face a c/r or c/c from bways with a BDFD)

The overwhelming majority of villain flop c/c range is going to be 88/99/Tx, so I feel like if we bet flop we should probably fire all three on most runouts. Surely there are tons of hands better suited for that purpose and this hand should be a great candidate for our check back, call once range. This hand is just slightly too weak for both bet bet check and bet check call imo.

Would be more inclined to bet flop with A7 or K7.

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

I think the idea that the turn c/r from our opponent includes some wide range that includes all types of different hands is insane and foolish.

Right, but is that a valid argument for double barrelling this turn?

bet less on the flop if you bet at all. I don't hate a bet for 3-4 to be honest.

Turn bet is really bad unelss you're just intending to 3 barrel every single river (which is also probably bad, but less bad then betting turn to check river).

His turn check raise is kind of suspicious when there's probably not many 5x hand he plays for a call from the sb and you hold a 7 blocking middle set, so I guess i could see the reasoning behind calling it. Once he gives up on the ace i think its kind of likely that he either rivered you with an ace-bluff and is not folding, or your hand is good any way so definitely check.