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Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld
Put lukie on a range and we'll see where we disagree.
Here's mine:
preflop 99+, AQs, AKo, JTs, T9s (maybe)
Calling flop bet: 99+
Calling turn barrel: 99+ (99 is now a set)
Calling river shove: Maybe QQ, KK+, sets
I think depending on villain, there will certainly be some that are calling 55+ thinking "man he's squeezing utg open and my call, he could be pretty strong here I should set hunt".
Then 55+ gets to flop, and see's a boat "Well I can't fold now, I'll peel", and I also think people peel here with AK/AQ on the flop pretty often.
Turn is probably a big question mark depending on villain, and will make a big difference in how we view this hand. I agree that 99+ continues again, but given what I perceive his flop calling range to be I think this is still a bet since I think his continuing range is wider to a turn bet here than bet/ck/bet line.
River I think a lot of that garbage can find a fold, I don't mind the c/f here given the run-out.
Preflop: 55+, AQs, AKo, JTs, T9s (maybe)
Flop: 55-88, AQ, AK (all around 75%), 99+
56 combos of 55-88, AQ, AK, if 75% continue thats 42 combos
18 combos of 99-JJ
13 combos of QQ-AA (50% discount due to preflop, so 6.5 combos)
24.5 combos of 99-AA
Turn: 55-88 (40%? - think the type of person that peels flop with these hands is more likely to be the type to continue again), AQ/AK (15%?), 99+
All 21.5 combos of 99-AA continue on turn 9 (3 less combos of 99 now)
He calls with TT, JJ that we beat - 6 combos
We now lose to 6 combos of KK-AA, chop 0.5 QQ combo, lose to 3 combos of 99 - losing to 9 combos
Of the total 42 combos of 55-88, AQ/AK need him to call at least 3 combos for a profitable turn bet (7% of the time, this seems very reasonable)
River: T
-big disaster card, not enough of the above continuing 55-88,AQ/AK hands will call to warrant betting when we only really beat JJ of his legit calling range
River: c/f
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