A controversial 100nl Hand.

So villain appears to be some random pseudo tagg 100nl grinder. Nothing remarkable to say. Call or fold river and why. Please be thoughtful; no one word answers or 'I call cause I have KK in a 3bet pot and no ace hit'.



Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($40.50)
UTG ($118.90)
MP ($147.70)
CO ($141.35)
Hero (Button) ($203.55)
SB ($103.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
1 fold, MP raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11.50, 2 folds, MP calls $8.50

Flop: ($24.50) 4, 9, 4 (3 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $18, MP calls $18

Turn: ($60.50) 4 (3 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $38, MP calls $38

River: ($136.50) J (3 players)
MP bets $80.20 (All-In)

Oh also villain made his flop and turn decision pretty quickly but timed down to the "You have 15s to act" point on the river.

I think this is a fold.
After shoves that river, his range has to be 99,JJ,AA.

He is not turning QQ into a bluff here because he should know hes getting looked up by AA and KK (zeebo no one folds FH's)

I think he is valueshoving AA, JJ or 99 knowing most people are not good enough to ever fold KK, QQ here.

It's always the nuts (eff. nuts in this case) when they wait for the timebank to bink and then immediately act afterwards

or at least incredibly weighted towards the joint

If he always bets QQ, it's a clear call.
If he never bets QQ, it's a clear fold.

I do find when they time down and shove they often have the nuts, but try and disguise it by "thinking" eg timing down.

I doubt he has a 4 (unless he has spazzed with some random 45/a4 suited) but we can rule that out.

So I think we can put his range on 99/1010-AA. (then again if he calls 99 pre he is calling any PP and could turn his hand into a total bluff?) but given his description I doubt it.

Typical 100NL monkeys would call any 2 over PP here so with this knowledge he is probablly value towning with 99/JJ here and expecting us to call with 10's/Q's-AA.

I personally fold this. Not sure if that rambling makes sense.

Originally Posted by minSim

If he always bets QQ, it's a clear call.
If he never bets QQ, it's a clear fold.

if he always bets 73o its also a clear call. i dont have any more information about this opponents range than you do so please make an executive decision!

its a fold and it sucks. we pretty much have to beleive he is turning TT, 9x into a bluff on river which is v unlikely.

seems to me he has 99 or ginned jj.

we're getting 2:1 and he's repping such a small range. Considering the action our hand really is just a bluff catcher, so does he bluff here more then 1 in 3?

oh wait, just realized there are 3 of dem Fo's on da bizzle

stop making threads so damn late!

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Originally Posted by minSim

If he always bets QQ, it's a clear call.
If he never bets QQ, it's a clear fold.

if he always bets 73o its also a clear call. i dont have any more information about this opponents range than you do so please make an executive decision!

Does he have any reason to think a 9 might be in your range? What about TT?


Without any information I'd go with he bets QQ 50% of the time, which makes it a pretty clear fold, based on the range I gave him (AA/KK/QQ 50%/JJ/99, we have 19% where we need 27%)).

Looking at that range again, I see I have AA/KK as a 100% 3bet-call-OOP in it, where he's probably 4betting them sometimes.
If we got with AA50%/KK50%/QQ50%/JJ/99, it's a close fold (22,3% where we need 27%)

Originally Posted by minSim

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Originally Posted by minSim

If he always bets QQ, it's a clear call.
If he never bets QQ, it's a clear fold.

if he always bets 73o its also a clear call. i dont have any more information about this opponents range than you do so please make an executive decision!

Does he have any reason to think a 9 might be in your range? What about TT?


Without any information I'd go with he bets QQ 50% of the time, which makes it a pretty clear fold, based on the range I gave him (AA/KK/QQ 50%/JJ/99, we have 19% where we need 27%)).

Looking at that range again, I see I have AA/KK as a 100% 3bet-call-OOP in it, where he's probably 4betting them sometimes.
If we got with AA50%/KK50%/QQ50%/JJ/99, it's a close fold (22,3% where we need 27%)

We should be 3betting TT this deep in position a very small % of the time, and we will have various odd 9x bluffs sometimes in our preflop range. We should not be expected to want to stack off with either of these holdings; if we applied this much flop and turn pressure with one of them it would be as a bluff. Therefore, I would expect that only opponents who are randomly thrashing at their keyboard and not interested in poker analysis to find a river bet with QQ here. An important reminder is that the vast majority of opponents who don't hand read default to passivity.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Therefore, I would expect that only opponents who are randomly thrashing at their keyboard and not interested in poker analysis to find a river bet with QQ here.

From about which level do you think a general opponent does not fit into this category?

Given the price we're getting AND the fact that he may actually be value towning himself with a worse hand, I'm never folding here.

The fact that villain also made insta calls on flop and turn also make me wanna call this more. I don't think 999 or AA would be insta calling, I think there would at least be some decision about a raise somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised to see JJJ though.

I think a key spot here is when he flats pre. Is he the type to do this with AA sometimes?
I think you see less than you here often.

I call and hope I didn't zeebo myself.

His line makes no sense to me. And at the price you're getting, I think you will see TT,Aj,QQ here enough to profit. ( yes I know he may take this line with JJ if he's a total station)


(Btw. funny I've lurked 3 years before posting )

With no history, for a 100NL TAG, this is only the nuts (or close to it) on this spot.
I put my money on JJ/AA. For a TAG this is the only line that might make sence up to the river.
99, I believe he would have raised flop or turn.
So, for me, this is a fold.

The problem with his line is it is the nuts like 95% of the time. The good thing is that what he thinks is the nuts may not actually be the nuts. He played this liek a flush draw. What he thinks of what you have is effecting his line and I don't think this is just an easy fold. with almost 2.5:1 I think I call, because a J, 9 or even a brain fart flush draw could still be in his range. Include the odd bluff depending on his image of your history and I say call. He could easily have made the mistake of putting you on missed AK.

I'm not quite sure how to properly weight a range, this was my attempt though, which is fucking surprising:

Board: 4d 9d 4c 4h Jd

Wins Ties Equity
43.26% 0.00% 43.26% ( KdKs )
56.74% 0.00% 56.74% ( 99,AdQd(20),AJ(10),QQ,AA,45,JJ,TT(20),55-88(15)

imo you can scrap 55-88 and TT for sure. and very probably also QQ

are you later posters saying call just thinking of hands that the opponent might play preflop that have some sort of equity vs our range on this board? Do you not perceive the reversal of initiative in a huge pot to be a huge indicator that we need to reevaluate his range carefully? Are you trying to analyze our opponents thought process at all? Do YOU have a postflop thought process? I mean our opponent probably is no LuckySlevin in terms of poker aptitude, but let's give him a bit of credit. We at least need to be able to say, thinking from our opponents perspective, "I am going to shove XX (insert 'for value' or 'as a bluff') on this river because he is likely to (call/fold) Y part of his range thus yielding me profit." Everyone who wins at 100nl+ at least subconsciously will have this thought process as a minimum, and if not, the alternative is that they are going to be playing their ranges very passively when pots get uncomfortably big.

All I know is that from time to time.. people just show up with weird hands that you wouldn't expect. So after stoving it, I gave him a range of 99,JJ,AA, a couple QQ's, one KK and a spastic nut FD that somehow got there to represent some kind of range of bluffs someone might have here.


Board: 4d 9d 4c 4h Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.875% 18.75% 03.13% 3 0.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 78.125% 75.00% 03.13% 12 0.50 { AA, KcKh, QcQs, QdQh, JJ, 99, AdQd }

This is a tight range as far as I'm concerned, and it's a marginal fold. Add in all QQ's and its a snap call (37%). So really calling or folding here mostly depends on how often we think he could be value betting worse (ie: QQ ).

Given pot odds, I don't think either decision is a big mistake.

Hmmm interesting and stupid hand, I like it!

When you see someone randomly shove all in on the river, if its a fish it can easily be bluffy, if its some tagg reg multitabler than chances are its really not.

I think its pretty safe to say thatafter the turn his most likely range of hands is TT-JJ, 2nd is QQ and AA, third is KK/something random. Assigning % id say 70% chance he has JJ/TT, 25% chance he has QQ or AA, and 5% is the rest.

So now we hit the river. It's a Jd and he shoves. At this point when he shoves we're getting something like 2.5 to 1. So something like around 30% of the time when we call we have to be winning.

Now here comes I think the real key to the hand and it just shows the real benefit of timing tells.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Oh also villain made his flop and turn decision pretty quickly but timed down to the "You have 15s to act" point on the river.

How perfect is this description of someone who has JJ. Think about it. He called 2 streets because he doesnt like his hand too much, and then on the river he hits a J. But look at the board. 9444J. It's going to take a good while to figure out what exactly you have here, especially if your multitabling. Okay so does our hand beat AA-QQ? Well yes, now it does, but it took a good 10 seconds just to make sure. Who wants to put all their chips in and lose just because they misread what they actually had?

So I'd say he has JJ a good 80-90% of the time here so yeah I think you fold.

I think people are overrating the chance of spazzy flush. He probably raises the flop with it a solid amount, and then its of course unlikely someone who is an actual poker player makes this sort of mistake.

Wow yeah this is JJJ so often.

I'll be honest though in the heat of the action I'm folding this like 0% of the time unfortunately.

If I could weight his range I'd say JJ 70%, 99 10%, KK/AA 10%, J9s 5%.. 5% random, 0% TT Does like like a fold...

edit: I forgot 99

you look strong, it s less than a potsized bet and it's unlikely that this type of opponent does something stupid with TT. It's also a decent board to slowplay the flop with AA and his line also makes sense for JJ if he views you as even slightly aggro

He has AA or JJ

Fold

Actually i think this just comes down to how sound you think his fundamentals are. you are never ahead if he has anywhere near solid fundamentals, period. But there are probably a larger chunk of players than I think at 100nl who don't really understand much besides hand charts.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Actually i think this just comes down to how sound you think his fundamentals are. you are never ahead if he has anywhere near solid fundamentals, period. But there are probably a larger chunk of players than I think at 100nl who don't really understand much besides hand charts.

If he had good fundamentals he wouldn't be open shoving the river with any hand IMO.

I agree. That's sort of why this hand is such a conundrum.

I'm not qualified here but I'd def say it's very heavily weighted to JJ with occasional QQ and AA and the rare other KK.

I think JJ is most likely cuz JJ often flat 3 bets, then proceed with caution and c/c a dry flop like this. Turn he c/c cuz omg i has a full house and hero could be barelling random bluff, 9x rarely and AK decent amount and 1010 on occasion.

He gins river, has about 3/5 psb left, thinks to make it look bluffy and closes his eyes, prays for call and shoves as he's not super confident you will bet river again if you were barelling the aforementioned hands and is pretty confident you will call with JJ+.

Edit: despite this analysis I would prob have closed my eyes and called in the ehat of the moment.

Originally Posted by Alexos

Wow yeah this is JJJ so often.

I'll be honest though in the heat of the action I'm folding this like 0% of the time unfortunately.

If I could weight his range I'd say JJ 70%, 99 10%, KK/AA 10%, J9s 5%.. 5% random, 0% TT Does like like a fold...

edit: I forgot 99

this sums it up pretty well imo.

I'm sorry but i don't consider folding this. You just have to be winning far too little.

And nothing against 100NL players but lets not assume that this guy is a solid, reasonable player even if he appears to be.