Baby flush facing turn overbet. Talk to me Goose.

Villain seems suspicious, this is only his second orbit and he's played about half the pots so far. I guess since we don't have detailed reads to put him on an even remotely accurate range we just flip a coin?

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($200.80)
Hero (CO) ($210.15)
Button ($197)
SB ($67.05)
BB ($310.55)
UTG ($223.85)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4, 3
UTG bets $4, MP calls $4, Hero calls $4, 1 fold, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($18) A, 9, K (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $13.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $13.50, 1 fold

Turn: ($45) A (2 players)
UTG bets $206.35 (All-In), Hero bleh.

Wow this is a gross/weird spot.

I'd imagine a lot of ppl would be on the level of thinking "hero is never folding Ax here, so I'm gonna jam if I beat Ax". That being said, I can't see him jamming AK,KK type stuff here.

Feel like this some weirdly played QQs, or QsJ, or a flush that beats ours if anything.

What was his timing? I'm leaning towards a fold here.

yeah i think his most likely range is Qs or a flopped flush. You can stove it but pretty sure we should fold. I'd call with a J hi flush, maybe T.

Absolutely raise flop. Flopped flush seems probable now. I would discount AQ/QQ because of sizing pre.

id call i think, based on absolute hand strength alone vs a player who i think might be a fish

yeah I should've mentioned that his turn timing was pretty fast, as in he saw the ace peel and was very happy to hit the all-in button as if he was planning to shove regardless.

I think it is a call, dont mind a fold either. I think he has AQ,AJs,QQs type hands.

His minraise preflop and his turn shove all point towards him being terrible.
He probably never has a boat/quads.

We need 45% to call.

Board: As Ks 9s Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.105% 45.10% 00.00% 774 0.00 { 4s3s }
Hand 1: 54.895% 54.90% 00.00% 942 0.00 { AQs-ATs, QsJs, QsTs, Qs8s, Qs7s, JsTs, Js8s, Js7s, Ts8s, Ts7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 8s5s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 6s5s, AQo-ATo }

So we have to call if he does this with AT+.

I think he shows up with more Ax hands than just AT+. However, he probably shows up with a boat once in a while too...I've seen some really stupid stuff in these spots.

You're never making too big of a mistake either way though.

Originally Posted by JL

You're never making too big of a mistake either way though.

Actually it is very easy to make a huge mistake here vs his actual range. Against one type of donk we are always drawing dead and vs another type of donk we are always ahead. Nothing we can really do about it though.

I guess we could make a case for fold pre if we aren't stacking off with a flush in a spot where he probably never has a boat.

I think on the flop we have only one option - raise

- as played: he is betting 5x pot, so he is probably retarded and its hard to put him on range, because everything is questionable - so because of it I like what sauce said

This is probably a fold. I think we are winning a fair amount, but only vs hands that have very good equity against us while we are drawing dead vs everything else. Gives me the feeling stove would say fold.

Edit: Didn't see the stoving. Surprising results, I suppose this means we should call.

Yeah I ended up folding and he didn't show. Just felt that he has a medium flush + any random spew still usually has quite a bit of equity.

I always fold when a nameless person does this weird stuff

I'd put the weight on AQ-AT at basically nil