Another theory exercise

This one is a very simple exercise.

You raise preflop OTB and get called by the big blind. You have been opening the button a lot and BB is pretty loose preflop.

Heads up to the flop.

1. You do not hit the flop (you didnt hit a gutshot or better i.e. overcards). What is the best flop texture for a continuation bet?

2. You do not hit the flop. What flop texture would be the most encouraging for a check behind?

C BET: AK2 rainbow
Check behind: 6 7 8 with a flushdraw. (originally had J 8 9 with a FD, but figured most people will more combinations of sets on 678 than J 8 9)

That was off top of my head, will have a better think after dinner.

best cbet: 333

worst cbet: J86ss

A22
232r

I'm a little baked but...

89T mono is much closer to the correct answer than 232r, but I like A22 moar than the others

I feel like Ax is going to be in his range more than a K and Q and I also feel like we need more information unless we presume a pretty random guy yet we know he's not afraid to call in the blinds.

Q62r
QJTss

1.Kxx rainbow

2.79J two tone

though you didn't mention this in your post assuming he's a 'thinking player' I kinda like the reverse given what you have described

1. J97tt
2. Axxr

goin' against the grain ldo

1) K24r

2) J98 with FD

LOL, this is a trick question.

I agree with Micro that it depends on the type of player.

Against a thinking player

2. Axxr I check back pretty often with the intention of still winning the hand, and 89J two tone I'd check back with the intention of giving up

1. I agree with Alex that Kxx is prob one of the better boards to cbet.

Cbet: I like cbetting at uncoordinated flops against this type of player. If he 3 bets pre alot then something like Q72r, if he 3 bets a lot of aces pre then A72r is prob about the best.

Check behind: I think paired monotone flops are good for a check behind / cbet turn. TT3r.

Its not a trick question. It does depend on the player to a degree but generally one flop is going to be better or worse than another.

Originally Posted by d0zer

I'm a little baked but...

89T mono is much closer to the correct answer than 232r, but I like A22 moar than the others

yeah maybe, I was just thinking with that board there's at least a chance of winning on later streets since you can rep some overcards.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

though you didn't mention this in your post assuming he's a 'thinking player' I kinda like the reverse given what you have described

1. J97tt
2. Axxr

goin' against the grain ldo

Haven't played 6max for a while but I think this is interesting. I imagine the example in 1 might be good for a double/triple barrell sometimes, as he isn't going to be c/ring often if he has A9 type stuff and may play that type of range faceup ish c/cing one or maybe 2 streets. His range hits the board more than other boards sure but if we check back this texture he mostly figures us for a weak range since we would rarely check back a made hand, and can just take over the hand accordingly?
2. I think this is a good texture to check back if we are checking back our paired ace sometimes?

im probably retarded but keen to learn

1. 742
2. Akx

Assuming our player is competent at least.

Probably totally wrong

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

1. 742

I think this is pretty good to cbet. Tons of over-card scare cards, and he rarely has that many hands that will c/r the flop.

1. 722

2. 7 8 10

But it all ends up being a levelling war assuming the player is good.

I like Cbetting flops that have obvious draws when against a looser player that most likely will miss the flop as well. So many cards that I can barrel and get him to let his weak holdings go, besides if I have a draw I am firing here all day so I don't wwant to be checking my non drawing hands

I check behind more rainbow J or Q high boards since a looser player will hit those more, or be willing to hold on a lot longer vs multi street barrels, particularly if I have been opening and firing a lot. I may not fire on these till the turn as it is, since they won't have hit them hard as often if I have a hand and want them to catch up when I do, and don't want a fold.

This seems to be the opposite of what most are thinking too, I must really be shit at pokers.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I think this is pretty good to cbet. Tons of over-card scare cards, and he rarely has that many hands that will c/r the flop.

I cant see much of villains preflop range hitting this - what ours does doesnt matter.

On a similar theme id change my check behind one to something like JTx two tone or paint as again his likely calling range pre smacks that type of flop or hits it hard but cant take big pressure if we try to steal it on the big money streets?

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

I cant see much of villains preflop range hitting this - what ours does doesnt matter.

Sorry I think we're saying the same thing. I mixed up the numbers, and I was saying I thought it WAS a good board to cbet, since I thought you had said the opposite!

You could at least outline some sort of a 3betting frequency

Lets say linear aj+, TT+, KQ

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

This one is a very simple exercise.

You raise preflop OTB and get called by the big blind. You have been opening the button a lot and BB is pretty loose preflop.

Heads up to the flop.

1. You do not hit the flop (you didnt hit a gutshot or better i.e. overcards). What is the best flop texture for a continuation bet?

2. You do not hit the flop. What flop texture would be the most encouraging for a check behind?

1. AAA probably

2. T98hhh

(they always have hearts)

they really do

i mean if a vaacume i`d guess:

1. K82r
2. JT9ss

but might change depedning on specific villians and their tendencies

Against a unknown:
1. Kxx rainbow
2. JT9 two tone.

With refernce to cbetting a 7high flop against a thinking player, are we barrelling any broadway?

Okay I feel like its been long enough, here is my answer. I assume every assumed that it was 100bbs deep, but I just realized I forgot to mention that.

Here are the main factors I'm considering when I am deciding whether a flop texture is good to bet as a bluff.

1. The equity of my range against his range. This is likely the most important factor. The better my range's equity is against his, the more inclined I am to bet a weak hand.
2. Nut hands in my range and my opponents range. The more nut hands I have in my range, the more I can make big bluffs profitably. The less nut hands in my opponents range, the less he can make big bluffs profitably. This makes me more inclined to bet a weak hand. Vice versa would make me more inclined to check a weak hand.
3. % of hands in his total range he folds to a bet. If this is 40% or more you should absolutely bet an air hand.
4. Opps tendencies. This wasn’t specifically outlined here but clearly this is taken very critically into consideration.
Given these factors, this is my answer.
Best flop texture to cbet: AAA
I suppose it could be 222 or 333, I think though that factor 3 basically is so huge with AAA it’s too amazing not to bet. Of course disconnected flops like Kxx is good, but not nearly as good as trips on the board or something like 232. With Kxx, he can actually hit the flop and we cannot represent that much more. AKQ is just a decent cbet board, but a superb triple barrel board because of factor 2.
Worst flop texture to cbet: T98 rainbow.
A T98 board hits a very large % of opps range, and therefore our range equity is bad on this flop against his range, and he folds to very few bets. Also theoretically, opp has tons of nut hands in his range, and because we are likely to call the flop with a wide range and 3bet super nut hands, our flop calling range is likely to be easily combated by flop raises followed up by a turn bet and a river all in. Monotone may be better because of likely station tendencies on turn and river by BB. But there is one reason I think rainbow may be better. Because I think that we have flushes more suited cards than our opponent, and therefore can have more flushes. JT9 monotone and rainbow are pretty close to as good, T98 I believe is slightly better because of lack of KQ and JJ in opps preflop range.
I’m open to discussion.

Btw I think whatever hand wins in Pstove with T98 monotone and T98 rainbow or two tone I think wins the worst flop to cbet but I don't have pstove on my laptop and I'm out of town.

uhm, rainbow and two tone have almost identical equity, with the BB being 60/40 fav in both cases. all one suit drops to 57.5%. JT9 and 897 are both worse for the BB. J97 and other disconnects dont change BB equity at all really.

i started messing around a bit more, AT8 two tone gets BB equity as high as 62%.

however, since we stated 'best flop to cbet' i think T98hhh might still be worst for btn because sooo many combos flop something which they can peel/CR with which might make up for the 4% equity drop from AT8 or 2% from T98. As in a hand like 2h2x has 46.5% equity against a random hand, A7 no heart 44%. point being on that coordinated a board almost any hand in BB's range is going to be able to peel one bet often despite being a dog against a random hand since so many cards to improve against large parts of btn's range.

88-22,ATs-A2s,KJs-K5s,Q8s+,J7s+,T7s+,96s+,84s+,74s+,63s+,53s+,AJo-A7o,KJo-K8o,Q9o+,J8o+,T9o
-This is my BB flat range, i think its typical and taggy and some hands prob 3bet sometimes. i didnt include a lot of the weaker SCs and connectors as i thought this was more typical.

also, tinkering with BB's range changes things a ton such that this splitting hairs somewhat.

Thanks for the work sauce, interesting stuff. It makes sense that something like AT8 would have a big equity advantage, but I'm surprised its the biggest one you found. I used to cbet "dry" boards all the time but now I tend to check back the QT7's and the AT8's of the world with bad air hands.

Your range is pretty loose for the BB but now I realize my outline of the situation was terrible. Is this for a HU match? 3x or minraise?

assumed hu

Haven't read any responses:

1) I think K82r is probably the obvious answer, but with a little investigation it might be something off the beaten path like 942r. People tend to generally have high cards when they flat the bb, so something without broadways could def be better than the alternative.

2) Maybe like KTx. You get a lot of credit for sd value, so you will have a chance to when the pot on the turn if he doesn't have anything.

I'm talking with the general belief that like 90% of flop textures are cbettable with air ip for a profit in a vacuum, and so the answer to question 2 will more likely be something that you are checking behind to make a more profitable play on the turn instead of simply checking to give up.

Agree with AAA/T98 though if you are talking simply about vacuum flop play.

I was simply talking about highest EV flop cbet. Its certainly interesting to examine the decision as the biggest difference between the EV of betting and the EV of checking behind.

I don't really understand why you think K82 is the best flop to cbet. The best flop to cbet here still seems like AAA. KTx makes sense for checking behind is clearly a good play with air. Using this logic we could say T98 isnt the worst cbet because checking behind gives us almost no ability to win the pot without hitting the turn or river.

i dont think its true that checking behind on T98 gives us no way to win. we rep hands like air/T little/J little/ 9x/ 8x/ 87/AQ/A7/A little/22-77. So it's reasonable to try to move bb off of weak hands when we get a turn check, specially on a semi-threatening turn card

Originally Posted by sauce123

i dont think its true that checking behind on T98 gives us no way to win. we rep hands like air/T little/J little/ 9x/ 8x/ 87/AQ/A7/A little/22-77. So it's reasonable to try to move bb off of weak hands when we get a turn check, specially on a semi-threatening turn card

I suppose your saying if we get checked to and check behind the turn and bet river? Opp still gets to see full suck out equity and we can get bluffed off by turn or river bets and possible river c/r's.