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50NL: TP + 2nd NFD vs nit/tag

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  1. #1
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Default 50NL: TP + 2nd NFD vs nit/tag

    Villain was 19/15/4 nit/tag. c/r 5% of hands on the flop. folds to BB steal 83%. 3bets 6% from BB.

    My image was tag but on the last orbits I've been very active stealing a lot of pots pre or with c-bets.

    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (3 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    BB ($57.96)
    Hero (Button) ($57.99)
    SB ($64.21)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, K
    Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

    Flop: ($3.25) Q, 8, K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB raises $10, Hero ???

    His raise on the flop is quite big.

    Here's the possible hand ranges from villain:

    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

    12,870 games 0.001 secs 12,870,000 games/sec

    Board: Qc 8c Ks
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 43.263% 43.08% 00.19% 5544 24.00 { Kc5c }
    Hand 1: 56.737% 56.55% 00.19% 7278 24.00 { 88, AcJc, Ac9c, KQs, JcTc, Tc9c, KQo }



    ---

    I think Ac9c is too loose for this kind of player, but as I've been active he could defend his blind with it ...
  2. #2
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Against almost anyone I would call and I probably wouldn't bet if my plan was to fold to a raise.

    You left out ATcc and JTss, maybe JThh/dd.
  3. #3
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    I meant ATcc instead of A9cc. JTss? Hmm ...

    Here's the new result with stove:

    14,850 games 0.001 secs 14,850,000 games/sec

    Board: Qc 8c Ks
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 47.515% 47.35% 00.16% 7032 24.00 { Kc5c }
    Hand 1: 52.485% 52.32% 00.16% 7770 24.00 { 88, AcJc, AcTc, KQs, JcTc, JdTd, JhTh, Tc9c, KQo }


    ---

    Basically, the problem I have is villain's near 4.5x raise (maybe he didn't saw that I bet $2.25 and thought it was $2.5 and he wanted to raise 4x). Do you think that tight of a player c/r that big with JhTh or JdTd? or even Tc9c?
  4. #4
    I don't think a 4.5x c/r makes it less likely he has a draw. sometimes he is c/r that big to protect a made hand but the big sizing could also be him trying to discourage you from calling when he is holding a semibluff.

    against anyone but a nit i usually CiB with hands like this to induce shoves from other draws/worse semibluffs. clicking it back works great for these hands because your equity is so good on the flop and we're happy when worse draws flat the raise.

    versus this guy I'd think call flop and reevaluate on the turn and based on timing/bet sizing either calling/folding is better in theory than clicking it back. BUT this is three handed so I'd expect him capable of more trickery/getting it in with worse draws a non zero % (and I hate when cards like a red 4 peel on the turn) so I'd probably still take the CiB line.
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters
    Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
  5. #5
    We have top pair/bad kicker. We have the second nut FD. We have position.

    This seems like an ideal spot for a call to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    We have top pair/bad kicker. We have the second nut FD. We have position.

    This seems like an ideal spot for a call to me.
    That, plus the fact that you've made a lot of steals lately, as you say (to OP). Definitely a call.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    We have top pair/bad kicker. We have the second nut FD. We have position.

    This seems like an ideal spot for a call to me.

    yea I see how this is better than c/r flop. I assume we're never folding the turn but are we folding unimproved on river?
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters
    Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
  8. #8
    Versus a perceived nit, I could probably find a fold by the river. Depends on feel I suppose.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  9. #9
    It depends on your read by then. By that I mean it depends on his betting action on the turn and river. With your history of being active it does seem very likely he is protecting a semi-bluff and trying to get you to fold.
  10. #10
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    So I called turn. And villain bets. What to do know?

    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (3 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    BB ($57.96)
    Hero (Button) ($57.99)
    SB ($64.21)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, K
    Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

    Flop: ($3.25) Q, 8, K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB raises $10, Hero calls $7.75.

    Turn: ($23.25) J (2 players)
    BB bets $18, Hero ??

    Villain's range didn't change that much from before (except maybe with AcJc and JcTc that he would check sometimes).

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