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50NL: tough (or not so tough) river decision

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  1. #1
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Default 50NL: tough (or not so tough) river decision

    I only had a couple of hands on villain but he seemed to be a bit of a station.

    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    SB ($68.09)
    BB ($120.59)
    UTG ($51.50)
    MP ($161.86)
    Hero (Button) ($39.75)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, A
    2 folds, Hero bets $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50

    Flop: ($4.25) 7, 6, 2 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks

    Turn: ($4.25) 10 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

    River: ($10.25) A (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises $25, Hero ??

    We can argue that I could c-bet flop but I have position and as I don't villain if villain is a real station so I prefer to check on the flop.
    Turn is standard (however, I could bet a bit more (e.g. $3.5 or 3.75)).
    Now river is interesting. I bet to get calls from worse 2 pairs and maybe pair of aces. But villain c/r kind of big. If I had c-bet flop and checked turn, there would be a higher probability of villain to c/r bluff. In this situation I'm showing some strength and villain still c/r 4x. How often is this a bluff? Villain needs to bluff at least around 33%.
  2. #2
    If you think he's a station that usually means passive and bad, therefore unlikely to bluff here or turn a hand into a bluff. I'd fold pretty fast.
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  3. #3
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Well, the trouble was that I had just a couple of hands on villain, but he seemed a bit of a station ... so yes, maybe a fold is mandatory.
  4. #4
    If he really is a station then yes you should fold. With no reads however then you should fold.

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