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50NL: tough (or not so tough) river decision
I only had a couple of hands on villain but he seemed to be a bit of a station.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($68.09)
BB ($120.59)
UTG ($51.50)
MP ($161.86)
Hero (Button) ($39.75)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, A
2 folds, Hero bets $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50
Flop: ($4.25) 7, 6, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($4.25) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3
River: ($10.25) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises $25, Hero ??
We can argue that I could c-bet flop but I have position and as I don't villain if villain is a real station so I prefer to check on the flop.
Turn is standard (however, I could bet a bit more (e.g. $3.5 or 3.75)).
Now river is interesting. I bet to get calls from worse 2 pairs and maybe pair of aces. But villain c/r kind of big. If I had c-bet flop and checked turn, there would be a higher probability of villain to c/r bluff. In this situation I'm showing some strength and villain still c/r 4x. How often is this a bluff? Villain needs to bluff at least around 33%.
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