50nl debating over-betting

villain is some australian dude. i joined his table and he had ~140bb at the time. he seems like a pretty straightforward reg. not sure how relevant it really is but he was something like 75/55 with 20% 3bet. he seemed to 3bet a pretty de-polarised range, i've seen him show up with AA,AQ,KJ in 3b pots. he was opening damn close to 100% of buttons. 50% fold to flop cbet (over 18) and 0% fold to turn cbet (out of 3). he probably sees me as being a pretty aggressive regular however i haven't overbet the pot once.

i feel like overbetting the river will see him fold close to 100% of the time given how capped his range is (i am pretty sure he would have C/R'd anything stronger than two pair on the turn, and 76 can also be discounted because he didn't C/R flop and i suspect he will lead the river with it most of the time) what do you think?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (2 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($66.70)
BB ($103.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, 9
Hero bets $1, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2) 8, 4, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.50) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

River: ($10.50) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12.75

over betting here makes abso no sense whatsoever

would you have bet the river here, bikes?

yes but over betting is pointless and he should probably call any pair and probably A high as well. a lot more missed than what got there for an overbet esp given how most people overbet the nuts or air,

I like $20.99 or $7.50. Overbetting isn't pointless here as long as you bet enough!

Originally Posted by bikes

yes but over betting is pointless and he should probably call any pair and probably A high as well.

but he won't if he doesn't realise this. my thinking was that a straightforward player at the lowest HU cash stakes offered would not be competent enough to realise the implications of my overbet or to assign me an accurate range. especially given how un-common overbetting is in my experience at 50nl HU/6m (except in obvious spots ie when regs have the nuts vs a fish with a very strong range)

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

I like $20.99 or $7.50. Overbetting isn't pointless here as long as you bet enough!

interesting. i felt like his fold frequency would increase sharply vs bets somewhere between the range of $10.5-12.5. simply because his range is so capped and he's facing a strong line and an overbet of the pot on the river. i could well be wrong, and admittedly i'm unsure of whether my belief in the "sharp increase" in villain's fold % vs $12.75 necessarily makes it better than more standard, less risky, $8.25 or whatever. thanks for your thoughts.

Tend to agree with No. 2; $7.50 (or even smaller) should be enough to get him to fold his bottom pairs once in a while as well as his A7 hands and especially his random K9 type floats and I'd tend to go that route. If you've overbet the river before with the nuts and he's called I'd go for $15+.