50nl- barrel this brd? or give up otf?

villain is 45/5, only 20 hands , no further reads.

Cereus Network - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $52.30
BB: $46.22
UTG: $51.38
MP: $37.85
CO: $47.45
Hero (BTN): $52.20

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has 6 8

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($3.25, 2 players) J A 9
BB checks, Hero bets $2.00,

Am I right to assume this is a hand where we can either ckbk and give up flop or barrel all three, coz he'll call 2 with all kinds of gutshots and 2nd pair type hands that fold by the river...?

Are there any runouts you give up on if you do decide to barrel?

Given that there's a fish in the BB, shoudl I be changing my BTN opening range to mix in more hands that will flop tp, and less hands that will flop draws, like this one? Or is it ok to open like 40% of BTNs here, assuming SB is a weaktight reg

Barrel all three? Gl with that.

Your hand is complete garbage so I'd elect to cbet and not barrel any turns really vs this guy. If you had more showdown value you could check.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Barrel all three? Gl with that.

does that mean you'd cbet once and give up? Isn't that burning money coz there's soooo much he'll call with otf, but fold later....?

Originally Posted by unclesteve

does that mean you'd cbet once and give up? Isn't that burning money coz there's soooo much he'll call with otf, but fold later....?

Well I wouldn't say that throwing out a cbet on an ace high board is burning money and you def want this fish thinking that you are trying to steal pots from him.

i am no expert, i just moved up to 5nl, but to me trying to barrel 3 streets is burning money, a cbet could be ok on the flop with the board texture, but if he calls,turn is deff c/f with your hand, unless you catch a 7 or 5 non diamonds,otherwise is donk play betting turn.

I'm in the bet once, and give up camp.

If you had very strong reads that he called two and folded all rivers, that's another story.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I'm in the bet once, and give up camp.

If you had very strong reads that he called two and folded all rivers, that's another story.

I don't have strong reads as such, but I just thought that fish in general call too much, that is why we need to barrel to make him fold.

Basically, here I think he can call my flop bet with lots of hands that he won't call 3with, like w/KJ, QJ, JT, J8, J7, J6, K9, Q9, 9T, 89, 97, QT, KT, KQ, Q8, and obv some FDs.

He'll call once with all of these, then fold osme of them on the turn, then the rest on the river, and obv this it hugely profitable coz he's often gonna fold with half his stack already committed. If he doesn't fold, we can make a note that he'll call us down w/2ndp and can print moniez.

Everyone seems to disagree with me, but I havn't got a clear answer as to why.

Plz correct my thinking.

Originally Posted by unclesteve

I don't have strong reads as such, but I just thought that fish in general call too much, that is why we need to barrel to make him fold.

Basically, here I think he can call my flop bet with lots of hands that he won't call 3with, like w/KJ, QJ, JT, J8, J7, J6, K9, Q9, 9T, 89, 97, QT, KT, KQ, Q8, and obv some FDs.

He'll call once with all of these, then fold osme of them on the turn, then the rest on the river, and obv this it hugely profitable coz he's often gonna fold with half his stack already committed. If he doesn't fold, we can make a note that he'll call us down w/2ndp and can print moniez.

Everyone seems to disagree with me, but I havn't got a clear answer as to why.

Plz correct my thinking.

somewhere in this post, you've answered your own questions.

nope, don't see it

if you mean that fish call too much but we barrel anyway, idk if I agree- fish often call too many flops or whatever, but for us to get called down 3streets in this spot by anything apart from Ax means we're up against a total station imo.

nope, not what I meant at all.

Originally Posted by unclesteve

I don't have strong reads as such, but I just thought that fish in general call too much, that is why we need to barrel to make him fold.

Basically, here I think he can call my flop bet with lots of hands that he won't call 3with, like w/KJ, QJ, JT, J8, J7, J6, K9, Q9, 9T, 89, 97, QT, KT, KQ, Q8, and obv some FDs.

He'll call once with all of these, then fold osme of them on the turn, then the rest on the river, and obv this it hugely profitable coz he's often gonna fold with half his stack already committed. If he doesn't fold, we can make a note that he'll call us down w/2ndp and can print moniez.

Everyone seems to disagree with me, but I havn't got a clear answer as to why.

Plz correct my thinking.

You're essentially saying, I'll barrel him and see what happens. Worst case scenario is that I'll barrel him, he'll call and he'll show some bs hand like 89 and we'll be able to print money value betting him after that.

I suppose in general this is true. Or you can not barrel him, but pay close attention to this table. Watch as somebody else chooses to barrel him and see what types of hands he called down with. You can get this same information without losing a reasonably sized pot yourself.

Furthermore, a lot of times he'll call down and beat you with some sensible hand like AQ or something, or river two pair or a flush and call down, which gives you no information at all about his fishiness or tendencies.

if you want to barrel the fish because you think his range will be weak think of two things:

1) BOARD TEXTURE
2) EQUITY

here you have 8 high and I wouldn't even count your backdoor crap straight draw on a two tone board as good enough equity. barreling off on T64 would probably work much better for your expectation.

Originally Posted by griffey24

You're essentially saying, I'll barrel him and see what happens. Worst case scenario is that I'll barrel him, he'll call and he'll show some bs hand like 89 and we'll be able to print money value betting him after that.

I suppose in general this is true. Or you can not barrel him, but pay close attention to this table. Watch as somebody else chooses to barrel him and see what types of hands he called down with. You can get this same information without losing a reasonably sized pot yourself.

Furthermore, a lot of times he'll call down and beat you with some sensible hand like AQ or something, or river two pair or a flush and call down, which gives you no information at all about his fishiness or tendencies.

ok, but i'm not looking to barrel here coz I think I can gain info or sth, I'm doing it coz I think it's +ev. We can pick up info sometimes when he calls w/crap, that was my point about getting called sometimes by crap, but overall I'm not doing this for info.

And your right, sometimes he'll have or hit a real hand and call us off, but his range is so wide I expect that to be relatively rarely.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

if you want to barrel the fish because you think his range will be weak think of two things:

1) BOARD TEXTURE
2) EQUITY

here you have 8 high and I wouldn't even count your backdoor crap straight draw on a two tone board as good enough equity. barreling off on T64 would probably work much better for your expectation.

How would barrelling T64r be better here? His range for calling me otf would be some gutshots, not many, Tx, Ahi, some PPs... it's much harder to barrel these, unless an overcard hits or we improve... maybe that was your point?

yeah my point is in bold.

(change the T64 to T73 since that gives us a gutter with your specific hand)

regarding board texture, the fish is prolly gonna peel all overcard combos, Ax, gutters, pair etc on T64, overall you probably have more immediate fold equity on AJ9 because on AJ9 when he calls he more likely has at least something with sd value. the board cant really change much to get scary for his calling range on flop for you to go to barrel town but on T64 the board has more potential to get scary (i.e. overcards coming or something) because his range will have low crap AND high crap whereas with AJx he likely just has high crap unless he's on a pure float with 72 or something there isnt really any turn u are getting him off much of anything he called with in first place on the ajx

k, nice post, ty.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

there isnt really any turn u are getting him off much of anything he called with in first place on the ajx

We're perfectly happy if he calls the turn when our plan is to get him off his hand on the river.

The problem here is that he could easily be the type who doesn't fold any pair in a spot like this. So we give him a stack and plan to start printing money. Only problem is one of two things tend to happen: 1. He takes his money and leaves. 2. Another reg overbets three streets with top pair and villain is busto.

Even worse, villain is somehow smart enough to understand that we're never bluffing him after that hand and we start to valuetown ourselves.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I'm in the bet once, and give up camp.

me too

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

yeah my point is in bold.

(change the T64 to T73 since that gives us a gutter with your specific hand)

regarding board texture, the fish is prolly gonna peel all overcard combos, Ax, gutters, pair etc on T64, overall you probably have more immediate fold equity on AJ9 because on AJ9 when he calls he more likely has at least something with sd value. the board cant really change much to get scary for his calling range on flop for you to go to barrel town but on T64 the board has more potential to get scary (i.e. overcards coming or something) because his range will have low crap AND high crap whereas with AJx he likely just has high crap unless he's on a pure float with 72 or something there isnt really any turn u are getting him off much of anything he called with in first place on the ajx

good post

ty for all responses. I actually did end up barrelling all 3, even though the Ac turned and this defn should have been a good reason to give up, now he usually doesn't fold Jx and sometikmes 9x.

However I still think cbetting once and giving up is burning money, I rather give up otf if I'm not gonna barrel this brd against this range.

He flipped A8o

Originally Posted by unclesteve

However I still think cbetting once and giving up is burning money

lol

Originally Posted by unclesteve

ty for all responses. I actually did end up barrelling all 3, even though the Ac turned and this defn should have been a good reason to give up,

This is a bad card to barrel against ANYONE, let alone against a fish. Don't barrel against ppl when their turn calling range has a lot of strong hands in it.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

lol

+1

op i think you need to re-read the responses to the thread

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

+1

op i think you need to re-read the responses to the thread

already have, havn't seen anything apart from 'cbet once and give up' or 'cbet in a 3bp w/Ahi isn't burning money'.

Basically, here I think he can call my flop bet with lots of hands that he won't call 3with, like w/KJ, QJ, JT, J8, J7, J6, K9, Q9, 9T, 89, 97, QT, KT, KQ, Q8, and obv some FDs.

Add the hands that he can call 3with, like Ax, and this is basically his entire range, that he won't fold flop with...

So how can a cbet w/o barrels be profitable?

Originally Posted by unclesteve

So how can a cbet w/o barrels be profitable?

i think cbet here works in 2 ways:

1. we cbet now and most times he will drop anythinh but AX, so we make money when he folds, +EV

2. we cbet now, then c/f turn.... later hands on boards like this we cbet again but then we will have SD value and could b/c or c/c later streets so by him calling we make money again even if he wont get to SD and fold turn/river

if you wont cbet unless youre Ax here, then he will know and only call us when he is stronger so we will lose money on the long run

this is how i see it, please correct me and excuse me if i said anything stupid, but this is how i see it.

that makes alot of sense, ty dude

Originally Posted by unclesteve

already have, havn't seen anything apart from 'cbet once and give up' or 'cbet in a 3bp w/Ahi isn't burning money'.



Add the hands that he can call 3with, like Ax, and this is basically his entire range, that he won't fold flop with...

So how can a cbet w/o barrels be profitable?

I don't disagree that his range for calling 3barrels may be somewhat narrow. But the problem is, you don't know what his hand is. Sure its easy to say that he won't call 3barrels with Jx, 9x or FD.

So what do you do on a diamond river? Do you bet or do you give up? What do you do on a 9x or Jx river? Do you bet or do you give up? or an Ace river? All of a sudden there's tons of bad runouts where you won't want to triple barrel, cause he'll call your triple and you'll lose a big pot, so you're left shutting down and you're showing down vs his "call twice" range anyhow.

Originally Posted by unclesteve

So how can a cbet w/o barrels be profitable?

bet/(bet+pot)

ignoring any equity in hand and assuming our cbet is a pure bluff:

2/(2+3.25) = .38, or 38%

if he folds any more than that your cbet is profitable without having to fire and more streets.

ok, kool, ty for all responses