50NL AK rivers TPTK vs fish

Yo guys. Been a while since I posted, but now I've cashed out for my summer trip etc and am focussing on playing loads more to rebuild, I'm looking to get back into the swing of regular HH reviews.

So villain here is 47/13 over 25 hands. I don't like his flop sizing much here, but feel I raise here given these overcards and J Q K A all being very +EV cards for me on the turn. No need to make it too huge since I'm mainly only getting immediate folds from his air. Don't hate a fold vs this sizing either.

I decide to take a free card on the turn, think he's folding very little of his flop continuing range and our equities just decreased, std again.

I obv plan on value betting this river but then he snap donks pot. Like this was so fast. I don't think he does this with anything that makes a pair of Ks on the river so unpaired busto flushdraws or random bricked gutters are all the air he can really have with this line. Nor do I really expect him to turn some pair of Ts into a bluff like this pretty much ever. He certainly has shit like sets, including TT and KK, KT, 67 and A2, and so think he reps a fair amount of nut type hands here and yeah sizing and timing make me want to fold.

Thoughts?


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($36.75)
SB ($39.05)
BB ($50)
Hero (UTG) ($60.90)
MP ($50)
CO ($21.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K
Hero bets $1.50, 3 folds, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) 10, 4, 5 (2 players)
SB bets $2.65, Hero raises $7, SB calls $4.35

Turn: ($17.50) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($17.50) K (2 players)
SB bets $16.65, Hero?

I'll have a go but take it for what it's worth since I play $0.10

I'm discounting AA-QQ as I think a 47/13 OOP would be 3betting these. That depends on your image of course. Are you a complete nit? If so then QQ calling OOP is possible but I still think KK+ would 3bet.

I'd be discounting TT, 55 as I reckon with this board he'd be an idiot not to go over the top of you on the flop. Maybe with 44 he is slightly worried about set over set but unlikely. That all depends on his post flop play though. Is he terribly passive? I'm assuming with a donk bet into an UTG raiser he is at least normally aggressive.

If he had sets or caught the straight I think he would bet the turn with 2 FD's and a possible straight out there. I don't think he'd be too worried about you having the straight though because raising UTG and raising the flop on this board reps big PP's, sets and AK maybe depending on your table image.

His check on the turn makes me think JJ-QQ and possibly AK. Slim possibility of ATs spades. I think he is slowing down because his donk bet was raised.

River I put him on AK and I'd be calling.

Then I'd probably be crying cause I got it all wrong. lol

Putting him on one hand when he has more than one hand in his range is a mistake. I also doubt he flats the flop raise super often with AK even if he does flat AK preflop then donk out like this. I'd conclude AK is a very unlikely hand for us to see here due to this and also since bet sizing is polarising and unlikely for a hand like top pair.

What's most likely for value is defo some sort of stright that gets there on the turn having b/c'd flopd and checked to the aggressor. The question is whether we can put in enough air or random fish spazz to outweight strights and KT sort of hands and to a lesser extent sets which are less likely for the reasons you mentioned.

And no I'm not a huge nit, and even if I was, we shouldn't credit a fish with the ability of making the right adjustments vs that.

^^

I'll just re-iterate the first and last lines of my post

Have a go with stove. Tha way you can add and remove combos from a range as you go and not get muddled on the river or end up with hands that youve already eliminated etc.

excuse the "poorly structured rant" that i've posted here..

I can't see this guy even failing to 3bet high pairs, so I dont think KK is in his range.

I also dont much like him for sets because i really think he should be betting the turn. I hate to give away a free card to a any hand like KsJs+ AsTs+ ..these are a big part of your range here given the large equity you would have with overs+FD or pair+FD

thus..

him checking the turn makes me think its much more likely he peeled a card with any 2 spades or that he has a pair of 10's. Fish with these stats are usually more passive than aggressive so i think its more likely that he has made a 2 pair with KT than it is that he holds other hands that were in his range pre-river.

K isnt a bad bluff card for him, atleast as far as he thinks. It hits your range so I probably wouldnt bluff here but a fish with a busted draw that isnt concidering the fact that you have a range probably would. Which is why i'm finding this a tough call.

I think if you believe that other 2pairs and sets fall into his range then this is an easy fold because there are far too many hands ahead of you and only complete air behind. I really want more player specifics because i think with the pot size most fish dont feel the need to bluff steal it because he's minimally invested and can just hope to hit a flush next time and bet for value. I want to know he has a tendency to bluff to call this down

I disagree w/ flop raise. In my experience, when this type of player has some random crap like J7o, they often b/f like 1$ or so, and this sizing seems kinda "normal". Every hand, which is connected w/ this board, has good equity vs your Ahigh (+ if you add made hands, u r in bad shape). I think vs these bad players its raise/fold spot almost always, but I would fold this time.

- anyway on the river I slightly prefer fold (would be interesting, how he would play Ksxs on this river)

Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond

I disagree w/ flop raise. In my experience, when this type of player has some random crap like J7o, they often b/f like 1$ or so, and this sizing seems kinda "normal". Every hand, which is connected w/ this board, has good equity vs your Ahigh (+ if you add made hands, u r in bad shape). I think vs these bad players its raise/fold spot almost always, but I would fold this time.

- anyway on the river I slightly prefer fold (would be interesting, how he would play Ksxs on this river)

Yeah disliking my flop raise more now than I did at the time. don't think it's too terrible but fold is probably a bit better.

IMO, when someone with fishy stats like his donks the flop then he's either hit the board hard or is full of crap.
Id' much rather fold the flop because when you raise , he'll fold out all of the air that he could be holding and continues with a NFD, lower than nut FDs, SD's maybe some sets or overpairs.
We can't really discount QQ, JJ (less likely to have AA, KK for obvious reasons) from the preflop action and he'd prolly continue with them after the flop if he's thinking that you're playing a draw fast or is really bad. I'd lean less toward sets because he just flatted the flop instead of raising.
I'm agreeing with you about his line ott and river: check to the aggressor (planning to c/r) and then wanting to avoid another check behind otr.

As played, it looks like a fold.

k you have like no fold equity on this flop

I think you should probably fold this flop but perhaps peel with AK witha spade or two diamonds because your 'fake outs' on the turn will allow u to pick up equity to run a bluff for your stack that is probably profitable against most weak players.

i think your flop raise is fine as long as you barrel off on blanks, and a 3d is blank enough

Originally Posted by sauce123

i think your flop raise is fine as long as you barrel off on blanks, and a 3d is blank enough

I assume this is with the intention of firing non awful rivers aswell since I don't expect to get too many folds immediately on blank turns?

As played do you think the river is pretty close? I ended up folding and feeling pretty okay about it.

as played id snap call, thats the best river in the deck for you

Originally Posted by sauce123

as played id snap call, thats the best river in the deck for you

Is this because the line that the villain took makes it look like he's got either TP or a bluff with a missed naked A, AQ etc and that the possibility of him having a K just dropped significantly?

pretty sure i call this river either, if anything i might consider raising the river since he could think you're bluffing if he has Tx or he could even have some weird Kx in his hand.
remember the guy plays almost 50% of hands so his range is crazy wide.
one thing you didn't mention despite the super small sample is fish' AF, if its like 0.5 i MIGHT consider a fold but if its like 3+ i probably jam

Originally Posted by sauce123

as played id snap call, thats the best river in the deck for you

Woo that's what I thought and got very worred that no one else thought this.....

Yep I would fold the flop but if i did raise I would ship blank turns. In this situation i think folding is better cos hes not full stacked and if a fish like this bet/calls u on this flop its really hard to get him to lay down anything on future streets. As played id call.