50nl 6m AJo SBvBB

villain is 20/16 over 80. 6% 3bet. 100% FT3b. 100% FTCB. has folded his BB to SB steal on 2/2 occasions in this sample. only note is

"squeeze 99 OSB vs EP open + fish LP call"

flop bet is standard. this is my standard sizing.

turn i rarely expect him to have kings except for KJ, floated KQ/KT or floated Kxdd, Kxss. also i will be barreling this card a huge amount of the time - which he may expect me to do - so i'm betting for value vs worse Jx. of which he has a reasonable amount.

river plan/rationale?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($50)
UTG ($47.95)
MP ($89.30)
CO ($56.60)
Button ($50)
Hero (SB) ($69.30)
Preflop: Hero is SB with J, A
4 folds, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1
Flop: ($3) 4, 4, J (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50
Turn: ($6) K (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BB calls $3.50
River: ($13) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $8.50, BB raises to $17, hero snap folds?

Seems like a pretty standard river b/f, but c/rai could be fun as well with the blocker.

how does ~$7.5 sound?

I kinda want to make it a mergy $11 but maybe that's just fps.

i'm completely unfamiliar with the concept of merging. HH is updated. villain minraised my river bet. snap fold right?

I don't understand what he is repping.

This feels like a bad spot for you to be bluffing, so without evidence he's stupid I'd fold.

this is such an easy fold that it's just retarded to be talking about it even

think $11 is far too much of a merge and this is like an absurdly easy fold

I wouldn't call either, I just don't understand what he can have that would play this way.

c/f river

question of whether to bet or c/f really depends how loose he is defending here (Jxs down to 5? 6?) and how often hes raising flop with fds+trips.

a lot of regs like to raise trips here because they think they can get me to spazz out (which i sometimes will) because they know i know they rep nothing (that or they're two levels below and think "oh yay trips! raise!"). a lot of regs will also definitely float backdoor FD's on dry flops IP vs wide CB ranges, for obvious reasons. although the fact that i hold the Ah makes flush draws less likely because i expect him (well, regs in general) to just raise the non-nut backdoor flush draws and flat the A high ones, because they know ace high has showdown value vs my range.

i don't know how i would have looked over this guy's 80 hand sample on me. but i appear pretty aggro to most regs - 27/23 with 10% 3b. i cbet flops with a pretty exploitably weak/wide range but i also barrel a decent amount of turns, and i 3b flops with more than just the nuts. how much of this my opponent knew during the play of this hand i have no idea.

you're overall image is the only relevant factor. he obviously hasn't played with you enough to know anything more specific than you may 3bet more than average and cbet more than average. both of these are not terribly uncommon or hard to identify. i would give these much less weight than most other considerations in this decision making process. i think the more important factors are your sizing, board rollout, your perceived range, and his calling range based on those factors. as you can see your image plays a small role (perceived range) especially because while you have very specific knowledge about your image and tendencies he does not. i think this is a common mistake a lot of players make is overestimating how much their opponents know about their game then justify bad plays with 'oh i can have xyz here', while that may be true he probably doesn't know it. you also haven't played enough against him to justify balancing. also your turn sizing blows.

Originally Posted by reDZill4

also your turn sizing blows.

too big or small? i basically just bet a size that i thought i would conceivably bet with bluffs like AQ,AT,Q9,QT.

why not check turn and c/c river? how often do you think hes calling you down with worse? 55-99? they would fold to a turn bet a ton. TT got there ,and the rest would 3b. i think checking back the turn and calling a river bet is +ev vs his flatting range as he will bluff some non 0% on the river, you dont fold out his air on the turn so your giving him a chance to bluff river or v-bet thin( 55-99) and if he got there then take a note on what hes flatting you with and how he played it and adjust accordingly.

your plan makes no sense. what makes you think he'll check back turn and bluff river instead of going bet-bet?

Easy fold

Originally Posted by reDZill4

you're overall image is the only relevant factor. he obviously hasn't played with you enough to know anything more specific than you may 3bet more than average and cbet more than average. both of these are not terribly uncommon or hard to identify. i would give these much less weight than most other considerations in this decision making process. i think the more important factors are your sizing, board rollout, your perceived range, and his calling range based on those factors. as you can see your image plays a small role (perceived range) especially because while you have very specific knowledge about your image and tendencies he does not. i think this is a common mistake a lot of players make is overestimating how much their opponents know about their game then justify bad plays with 'oh i can have xyz here', while that may be true he probably doesn't know it. you also haven't played enough against him to justify balancing. also your turn sizing blows.

I jizzed in my pants. Super good post man.

Turn $5 River c/f. The only hand you really beat is qj and that checks back everytime.