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50nl: 3b bluff pre, see the dirty deed through on the river?

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  1. #1

    Default 50nl: 3b bluff pre, see the dirty deed through on the river?

    Villain is shaping up as weak-tight over ~40 hands - do we think he can fold his likely 10x/JJ if I empty the clip on the river, or should I just give it up? I would 3bet pre, bet flop and turn and jam river with 35 combos of A2s, 76s and TT+ in this spot, so presumably it's fine to bluff shove quite a few combos as long as I'm confident villain knows I have a lot of value combos and can find a fold?

    Is pre a step too far? Flop and turn standard?

    PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

    Button ($42.87)
    Hero (SB) ($50)
    BB ($62.03)
    UTG ($84.56)
    MP ($37.25)
    CO ($53.54)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, 6
    2 folds, CO raises to $1.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, CO calls $2.75

    Flop: ($8.50) 3, 4, 10 (2 players)
    Hero bets $4.50, CO calls $4.50

    Turn: ($17.50) 5 (2 players)
    Hero bets $9.50, CO calls $9.50

    River: ($36.50) 9 (2 players)
    Hero????
    Last edited by The Bean Counter; 03-07-2014 at 08:10 AM.
  2. #2
    Renton's Avatar
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    Preflop is ok, just understand that it's a really large deviation from balanced play. What I mean by that is that you have a very tight range to play in the SB vs the cutoff, so when you 3-bet Q6s there it implies that you're 3-betting all better hands than Q6s that aren't coldcalling as well.

    In this case, assuming your coldcallng range is 66+ AJ+ KQ ATs+ T9s+ QTs+...

    ...you're 3-betting with something like 44-55 54s-98s 86s-J9s T7s-Q9s J7s Q7s+ K4s+ A2s+ T9o-QJo KJo, nearly 14% of all hands that have a greater ev 3-betting than Q6s. If you add the value hands AQ+ TT+, you're 3-betting nearly 20% of the time here, which is a lot.

    I think you should give up on the river with this specific and, because you block his folding range (diamonds, 6x, possibly AQ) but don't block any of his calling range other than QT. I also don't think this is specifically a river that you'll get many folds on. I would probably bluff with more favorable card removing hands like AQ/AK/QJ/J9 hands with no diamond, these block the Tx with strong kickers he could have.
    Last edited by Renton; 03-06-2014 at 10:07 PM.
  3. #3
    I think its a give up. The guy is going to talk himself into a call. Maybe fold something like 66/77 if he calls that vs your 3B.

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