3 barrel vs unknown

Villain was like 25/20, 3 bet = 0% at the time over 30 hands and I hadn't seen much of his postflop play.

My river sizing was pretty much an attempt to make sure that 99 88 etc which make up most of his range wern't tempted to call. it's likely uneccessary and i could just bet 2/3rds and fold out the same stuff since his range is weak.

Thoughts?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG kharakhito ($69.95)
UTG+1 TheKing1958 ($148.55)
CO miss_cliKK ($105.90)
BTN Hero ($103.55)
SB starwin00 ($100)
BB RoyHuts ($104.50)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, RoyHuts calls $2

Flop: ($6.50, 2 players)
RoyHuts checks, Hero bets $4, RoyHuts calls $4

Turn: ($14.50, 2 players)
RoyHuts checks, Hero bets $10.40, RoyHuts calls $10.40

River: ($35.30, 2 players)
RoyHuts checks, Hero bets $37.50

I like your line although I think a bet to 30 on the river is better.

I think the only hands he calls or raises with here are slow played trips/boats and an AQ that figured he was ahead of your range on the flop. (If he doesn't 3bet often, AQ is probably in his range.) I think he'll have those weak pocket pairs a huge portion of the time, so betting again seems fine.

This is definitely a note-taking hand to find out how he plays.

What valuehands would you bet this big without history?

Kinda worries me that he called that Turn bet on the Q. Any kind of timing tells? Were they like insta calls or did he think about it for a minute?

Originally Posted by minSim

What valuehands would you bet this big without history?

None at all - but i don't think he can assume it's more likely that I bluff this size than value bet this size vs an unknown.

I think my sizing is retarded because if I'm trying to fold out a weak range of hands and never expecting him to fold a Q or a T obv then I need to just bet an amount that folds out the weak pairs that reluctantly called the turn. I don't see why like 25 wouldn't do this.

Do people think a random villain reaches the river with as many weak pair hands as I assumed he does?

Yeah his range has a lot of PP's. Tx and AQ are possible as well, but I think a 3rd barrels is profitable against most, to fold out a lot of smaller pockets. I'd make it smaller to let it seem like a thin vbet though, also better odds for your bluff. The information you get when he calls is valuable as well.