25/50 Facing c/c, c/r

Don't actually have the physical hand history. Here are all the relevant reads. Opponent is losing semi badly, down 3 or 4 buy ins down 2 buy ins the past 5 minutes. He is 3betting about 13%, folding 51% to stl to a mix of minraises and 3xing. He has c/r'ed the flop very little. I have been doubling and triple barreling a lot in position and to counter this he has began to c/c the flop with nut hands. I have only seen him do this once when I doubled the turn and he elected to call the turn rather than c/r it. He is generally pretty nitty, the only bluff I have seen him made is a position triple barrel where he bet 900 into a 1200.

Stacks about 130bbs deep.

I raise to 150 with KJo he calls.

Flop comes 6c3s2h rainbow.

I bet 200 he calls.

Turn comes a Ks. he checks I bet 600, he c/r's to 1500. I call.

River is a Tc. He shoves about 4500 into a 3700. I call.


Thoughts? I think if I call turn I should call river, but turn seems really close. I don't think he would call K3o/K2o preflop.

i have no idea

Tough to give advice here even if we know dynamics because game flow is such a subjective thing. I mean is he the type to not run a bluff here because he's already down a lot (I tend to lose confidence when I'm losing a lot and thus bluff less since i expect to always get owned) or are the buyins relatively meaningless to him and he's still trying to play optimally. It it's the former fold, latter call I guess.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

Tough to give advice here even if we know dynamics because game flow is such a subjective thing. I mean is he the type to not run a bluff here because he's already down a lot (I tend to lose confidence when I'm losing a lot and thus bluff less since i expect to always get owned) or are the buyins relatively meaningless to him and he's still trying to play optimally. It it's the former fold, latter call I guess.

No idea

im torn cause people always have it when they bet round numbers with 5s in them but then again hes losing so he might spazz

i have no idea

When I decide call turn call river here they always have the nuts

Originally Posted by sauce123

im torn cause people always have it when they bet round numbers with 5s in them but then again hes losing so he might spazz

i have no idea

I can confirm the round number 5s theory.

I think your turn bet calling range is so wide given the board that you have to call the river with a hand this strong. The obvious question is whether you can muck the turn or not. Not a hu player, but what are the standard c/r bluffing hands here? I'm guessing A4/A5. He certainly can't have worse for value, so I guess i can see folding. Its not really a spot where there are a ton of weak draws that are compelled to a c/r or c/f situation.

the round numbers thing is interesting...i noticed that my natural inclination is to bet some creative number (like 73 into 90$ pot) when I'm running a bluff. I think it's because I want them to think I am paying attention to the hand (i.e. I must have it!) but that probably works against me since you pay more attention to your bluffs than you do the nuts. This MUST be the sole reason i'm not playing 25/50.

Results are I called and he had 66

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Results are I called and he had 66

Are you more or less likely to stack off vs this line compared to if he had c/c turn and c/bombed river?

I guess his line is good, cause I feel like the latter looks stronger and this looks more bluffy.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Are you more or less likely to stack off vs this line compared to if he had c/c turn and c/bombed river?

I guess his line is good, cause I feel like the latter looks stronger and this looks more bluffy.

I think his line is better, I don't think I'd ever call a c/r on the river on any run out.

Originally Posted by Renton

I think your turn bet calling range is so wide given the board that you have to call the river with a hand this strong. The obvious question is whether you can muck the turn or not. Not a hu player, but what are the standard c/r bluffing hands here? I'm guessing A4/A5. He certainly can't have worse for value, so I guess i can see folding. Its not really a spot where there are a ton of weak draws that are compelled to a c/r or c/f situation.

seems like he's going to be barreling this turn pretty wide and thus be b/f a lot so that should make a hand this strong a call for sure. however given that he b/c what does his range look like to the villain and does the villain expect him to fold those hands often enough on the river to continue bluffing (factor tilt). assuming villain is a reg he's going to know that he really isn't repping a whole lot of hands even though he's occasionally c/c nuts on flop which would lead me to think that you're more likely to call then fold in marginal spots making him less likely to bluff? on the other side you could be peeling wide on this turn and folding lots of rivers hoping he gives up.

just out of curiosity how low do you go on this river?

well what i meant was that on this board you are b/c turn with draw or pair+draw a lot, so you should call river mostly with any made hand that could call turn.

Originally Posted by Renton

well what i meant was that on this board you are b/c turn with draw or pair+draw a lot, so you should call river mostly with any made hand that could call turn.

Though realistically when someone c/r you and shoves river, I really don't think most people are thinking "all draws bricked, so I should jam cause he'll fold his air"... probably more likely thinking "all the draws bricked and he's heavily weighted towards Kx, so he'll probably call"

Originally Posted by griffey24

Though realistically when someone c/r you and shoves river, I really don't think most people are thinking "all draws bricked, so I should jam cause he'll fold his air"... probably more likely thinking "all the draws bricked and he's heavily weighted towards Kx, so he'll probably call"

I doubt he's thinking that much about the draws bricking.

ISF,
Does villain in hand have many K6s K3s K2s or 45os or 45s hands in his range PF?

Originally Posted by ilikeaces86

ISF,
Does villain in hand have many K6s K3s K2s or 45os or 45s hands in his range PF?

I'd say everything but 45o.