2/4 - QQ in 3b pot - thin river shove

Villain is a winning reg over a decent sample, running 26/21/2.8, folding to 3bets 66%, 4betting 2.3%. My notes say that he will c/c my cbets and 2nd barrels very light.

Thoughts on a river shove?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($737.10)
UTG ($490.50)
MP ($692.10)
CO ($448.50)
Hero (Button) ($400)
SB ($419.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
1 fold, MP bets $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $40, 2 folds, MP calls $28

Flop: ($86) 4, 3, 2 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $40, MP calls $40

Turn: ($166) K (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $80, MP calls $80

River: ($326) 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero... ($240 behind)

Do it.

Originally Posted by meeloche

Do it.

I don't understand a shove... what are we trying to get value from? exactly 1010/JJ? There's only one combo of QQ left that he'll likely fold, AK seems unlikely due to pre but if he makes it to the river he's not folding, and he still has AA in his range some % of the time. I really don't see him calling with anything else that we beat without some crazy dynamic.

I assume this is a shove at these stakes.

If this really is a shove can someone explain the thought process in as much detail as willing? I'm very confused how this can be a good play here.

If he is capable of bluff catching then shove. Any dynamic between you too make it easy so long as you would do this with less to get him off 77-99. Agg players typically have something here to be calling so many streets.

I'd bet $190. People confuse themselves into thinking you are bluffing and trying to save an extra $50 on it, thinking: "If he was strong, he would just shove"

Originally Posted by meeloche

Do it.

+1

I'm 99% sure you're good here of course you shove

Originally Posted by Juked07

If this really is a shove can someone explain the thought process in as much detail as willing? I'm very confused how this can be a good play here.

the board ran out in a way that we can conceivably be bluffing here

Originally Posted by Juked07

If this really is a shove can someone explain the thought process in as much detail as willing? I'm very confused how this can be a good play here.

Also, it's nearly impossible for him to have a K here.

i 3 barrel close to 100% of my range here