2/4 - Couple spots with strong hands

Hand 1)
-villain is a reg, but I don't think he's too great. He runs pretty taggy 21/17 and calls a ton of 3bets (my stats have him flatting about 37% or something pretty big).
-I don't know his calling ranges that well but I'd imagine lots of pairs, and suited hands
-dynamic this session is that I have 3b him 3 times previous, he folded one, he 4b one I folded, he 4b another and I jammed and he folded
-I can't tell if this river is a good card (any mid pair is counterfeited) or bad card (could even have Jx?)
-how does the fact that I'm under-repped and it looks like i have AK or something here play a role?

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($873.50) 218bb
UTG+1 ($399.30) 100bb
CO ($890.45) 223bb
BTN ($426) 107bb
griffey24 (SB) ($390) 98bb
BB ($92) 23bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is SB
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $12, 2 folds, griffey24 raises to $45, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $33

Flop: ($94, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, UTG+1 bets $48, griffey24 calls $48

Turn: ($190, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, UTG+1 bets $80, griffey24 calls $80

River: ($350, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, UTG+1 bets $226.30, griffey24 ??


Hand 2)
-No big reads on villain but he's running around 24/20/3 and he cbets 70%
-small sample but his wtsd is 23 and won at sd is 42
-Is river close? Ofcourse decision is between flatting and raising.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($301.70) 75bb
UTG+1 ($431) 108bb
CO ($926) 232bb
BTN ($668.55) 167bb
SB ($709.80) 177bb
griffey24 (BB) ($521.70) 130bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
4 folds, SB raises to $12, griffey24 calls $8

Flop: ($24, 2 players)
SB bets $18, griffey24 raises to $50, SB calls $32

Turn: ($124, 2 players)
SB checks, griffey24 checks

River: ($124, 2 players)
SB bets $70, griffey24 ??

1- fold
2- flat now, but I bet the turn.

Originally Posted by Alexos

1- fold
2- flat now, but I bet the turn.

1. is there a better line?

2. what's the value in the turn bet? Merging my range? Getting better T's to fold?

Originally Posted by griffey24

1. is there a better line?

2. what's the value in the turn bet? Merging my range? Getting better T's to fold?

1. I cbet, barrel, check-reeval river
2. balance and value

hand 1. I'm pretty sure he doesn't put you on AK after you flat the turn.

hand 2. My play is to flat otf, but I can't flat this river as played in a blind battle.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

hand 1. I'm pretty sure he doesn't put you on AK after you flat the turn.

Not that AK is or should be a big part of our range here, but if we c/c flop with it, don't see why we'd fold to that turn bet.

Originally Posted by Alexos

Not that AK is or should be a big part of our range here, but if we c/c flop with it, don't see why we'd fold to that turn bet.

Meh, we get owned by AJ, we're dead against JJ/QJs/QTs and we get bluffed off it on the river (sometimes). Besides, I think you're the one who taught me they always have that queen!

Originally Posted by pocketfours

hand 1. I'm pretty sure he doesn't put you on AK after you flat the turn.

hand 2. My play is to flat otf, but I can't flat this river as played in a blind battle.

Hand 2- I agree it feels too strong to just flat, but what worse hands does he show up with that will b/c? He might have 33/77 sometimes, but he might just get those in the flop some of the time as well, so only a couple combos of that. Maybe plays QQ like this sometimes. So a total of 3 combos of sets that I beat.

89dd probably gets it in on the flop, 45dd is a combo draw as well. So there are no flushes that I beat. He could have Axdd, Kxdd and Qxdd.

How big do you raise if you raise?

In a blind battle we can get to the river like this with a really wide range, so villain could be betting thin to induce even. Most players would be very tempted to raise this river bet with any garbage he spew-raised the flop with. You would probably barrel most flushdraws, so villain could have a hard time overcoming his curiosity.

Villain could have missed a crai on the turn with AA type hands! I'd make it $225 and fold to a jam.

In hand one is it too weak/nitty to fold turn against this particular guy in blind vs utg?

I feel like a total vagina asking that but after he barrels twice we have to assume the turn bet is him telling us "we're playing for stacks." And there aren't many rivers (2 kings ldo) that feel good about calling it off.

So if we're c/f river usually anyways shouldn't we just sigh and fold turn instead and save the 20bbs?