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2/4 - Counterfeited two pair on straight board
Villain stats and reads:
-Villain in this hand has been very aggro (today is the first time I'm playing him, but he's on multiple tables)
-he's btn stealing about 41%, running 31/26/6.5 over approximately 400 hands
-his 3b his 10.9 and calls a ton of 3bets, around 40% so far
-no big reads on his postflop play other than a high cbet stat (80%) and low turn cbet stat (38%)
-I know it's a small sample, but his wtsd is 29% and won at sd 43%
General assumptions on this type of spot/board:
-In general I assume that most players would often check back two pairs / and some sets on this particular turn (esp those with low turn barrels) - reasonable assumption?
-I would assume that I have a fair bit of boats getting to river myself that would c/c flop and then c/c this turn, so most ppl wouldn't overbet a bare Kx on river?
-I also assume that many regs (esp those with low turn barrels) will often shut down Ax on turn and/or river (so not fully worried about Ax into a bluff)
-These above assumptions make me want to call, reasonable or no?
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($536.85) 134bb
CO ($694.70) 174bb
BTN ($871) 218bb
SB ($348.60) 87bb
griffey24 (BB) ($459) 115bb
Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $8, 1 fold, griffey24 calls $4
Flop: ($18, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $10, griffey24 calls $10
Turn: ($38, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $28, griffey24 calls $28
River: ($94, 2 players)
griffey24 checks, BTN bets $200, griffey24 ??
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