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100z is this really not a value bet for villain?

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  1. #1
    Micro2Macro's Avatar
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    Default 100z is this really not a value bet for villain?

    PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

    Button ($119.75)
    SB ($116.22)
    Hero (BB) ($238.12)
    UTG ($90.51)
    MP ($104.26)
    CO ($208.41)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, A
    1 fold, MP raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $2

    Flop: ($6.50) 2, 4, 10 (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets $4, Hero calls $4

    Turn: ($14.50) 6 (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets $8, Hero calls $8

    River: ($30.50) 8 (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP checks

    Total pot: $30.50 | Rake: $1.37

    Results below:
    Spoiler:

    Hero had 10, A (one pair, tens).
    MP had 2, 2 (three of a kind, twos).
    Outcome: MP won $29.13




    This is more less posted for discussion on how the pool perceives the average hero to play his range here.

    Villain is a zoom regular.

    I'm not sure why he would not value bet the river. I think Hero should be raising most of his non nut flushes on the flop for value. Some slowplays will be necessary, but not so much that a set can't bet 3 streets. Especially given his sizing being on the smaller end of the spectrum.

    Do people really expect AT to call 0% of 3barrels on this texture? Are people just really afraid of being bluff raised? Why can't he bet/fold 22 when he can have more than a dozen flush combos and better sets that can defend vs a c/r/?
  2. #2
    Renton's Avatar
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    It is thinner than you think. It's a flop texture that you will only be calling about 35% of your range on, and even if you defend 70% of your range on the turn and 65% of your range on the river, 22 will have only about 52% equity vs your calling range. 52% equity is not enough to make up for the losses from bet folding to your Ac bluffs. He probably needs around 55-57% equity vs your calling range to justify betting there, and you would need to be defending well over half your tens for the value bet to make that much money.

    I don't hate his check, but it is clearly close.

    edit: Also, he may just feel that he doesn't have enough bluffs to justify betting all the way down to bottom set. Not to mention he would likely need to split off a smaller bet size region in order to bet hands with similar equity to 22, of which I cannot think of many. It may not be worth the cost of balancing such a range.
    Last edited by Renton; 03-14-2015 at 05:26 PM.
  3. #3
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Very nice check imo.


  4. #4
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    I like the check if I do not have the flush. I do not like being the last bettor raising on the river, then someone reraises me. Especially when the flop was club, club, club. I would at least like a chance of winning the pot with a check, not having to risk money.
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  5. #5
    The check is ok on the river also the check/call the flop and turn
  6. #6
    griffey24's Avatar
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    I don't mind the check. Given his small turn bet, I think he probably could find another small river bet.

    That being said,I think he should bet bigger on the turn since most of your pair + FD hands won't find a fold on the turn. In that case, I wouldn't mind a river check at all. Most of your river calling range will be low flushes or 444 or something. I'm not sure you should call this particular hand on the river facing a bet, given you block his most likely triple barrel bluffing range.
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  7. #7
    Micro2Macro's Avatar
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    Renton: what percentage of flushes do you assume BB to raise either on the flop, or on the turn?
  8. #8
    Renton's Avatar
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    I'd guess about 40%.

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